Optimal GERMANY post-World War I borders survey (Central Powers victory)

Fuck, you are rigth. But I still stand by my argument 6 million is quite a different beast than 145.000
Still a lower share of the total than Algerians in France and that went well enough until a superpower started to destabilize French rule there while another superpower made sure the French fought back with both arms tied behind their backs - the same things wont be happening in Germany though.
 
Fair point but they abstained as a method of protest and the Treaty of Bucharest was not wholesale annexation to Germany, was it? .

The territories transferred at Brest-Litovsk and Bucharest were for the most part not inhabited by Germans. The Alpine and Sudeten regions of Austria were. So the SPD would have no reason to object, esp as quite a few German-Austrians were likely to become SPD voters.
 

Deleted member 94680

The territories transferred at Brest-Litovsk and Bucharest were for the most part not inhabited by Germans. The Alpine and Sudeten regions of Austria were. So the SPD would have no reason to object, esp as quite a few German-Austrians were likely to become SPD voters.

They abstained to Brest-Litovsk (can be viewed as opposition filtered by the attitudes of a nation at War) and Bucharest didn't transfer territory to Germany. It doesn't matter they're populated by 'Germans' (not German citizens but people of other nations) it brings Germany closer to a war and emboldens the military - both things a SPD at peace will fight.
 
If the German Empire is willing to hold Trento, they will be more than willing to hold Briey-Longwy. So what if the local population complains?


And how much of its population would there be?

Iirc quite a few people fled to escape the 1914 invasion, and during the war many more (though of course excluding men and boys of or near military age) were allowed to be repatriated to France via Switzerland. I'm a bit vague about the numbers involved, but presumably former inhabitants of Longwy-Briey would be unlikely to return if the area was to be retained by Germany.
 
They abstained to Brest-Litovsk (can be viewed as opposition filtered by the attitudes of a nation at War) and Bucharest didn't transfer territory to Germany. It doesn't matter they're populated by 'Germans' (not German citizens but people of other nations) it brings Germany closer to a war and emboldens the military - both things a SPD at peace will fight.

Not sure I follow. If A/H has collapsed in the aftermath of a CP victory, there is no likelihood of further war in the near term. And if A/H has collapsed (the only situation in which this issue would ever arise) these German-populated areas have to go somewhere. If not into Germany, then where? There isn't really anywhere else.

Actually if anyone objects it is more likely to be the Prussian Junkers, who might be concerned that the absorption of all these South German Catholics could dilute their ascendancy in the Reich. The SPD and Centre parties, for their part, might welcome it for precisely the same reason.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
"optimal" depends on what you're trying to achieve. By one definition it could include giving back Alsace-Lorraine and reconstituting Poland including bits of Silesia and West Prussia to get as close to an ethnic border as possible and reduce tension with France both possibly in Germany's interest.

I'm joking (mostly), and am well aware it would never happen with a CP victory.

What would you do within the realm of feasibility after a CP victory, though?

Optimal depends upon the ends sought, security, prosperity, peace, stature, each calls for a different math. First I think that sober minds in Germany would quickly question annexing yet more minorities into Germany, especially the Poles. they had an independent history and already bristled under Russian dominance, I think the same could be said for Lithuanians and was becoming true for the Czechs. More territory does Germany little good post-war. In fact I think one could argue that A-L was on the table to be partitioned ethnically "German" and French or relinquished in whole under the right circumstances. Only German Austria was worth the effort and I am not convinced that it would truly fit well unless A-H implodes, something I think is not a foregone conclusion. But then once you spill this much blood and lose that much treasure any rational or magnanimous outcomes become hard to see.

For me a CP "victory" is likely a stalemated war with Russia collapsing and an armistice to the West, it likely results from an East offensive strategy and no invasion of Belgium, potentially a neutral British Empire, here Germany might not have to dig as deep simply to not be vanquished and is in no position to dictate terms (neither is France). That might be the only perfect alignment to get a lasting peace in Europe.

Germany long term would have benefitted from both supporting independence for all these nationalities and seeking to build a genuine free trade zone, potentially also a mutual defense alliance. I assume Luxembourg is merging into the Empire as another co-equal state. Assuming Germany is holding A-L then annexing the iron ore regions is likely if they are under German control but anything more is both destabilizing and potentially unworkable. I think the regions in now Estonia and Latvia could be enticed to join the Empire but Lithuania like Poland is better set free to face the Russian (or Soviet) threat. Same with the Ukraine and Finland. Both of these later two might accept a German (or Austrian) "King" while fitting into a German dominated economic zone under German protection. Poland likely goes far more independent for some time before finding that Germany is a rather good neighbor. But to have such vision during or immediately post-war is improbable. There would be as much mishandling and crisscrossed purposes until things get sorted and that invites the hard feeling that might doom it. Such a foresighted policy would likely preclude another war. But if we can find such a thing then I assume that even if Germany gets a few new bits and bobs they may get set free as the future unfolds. If Germany builds a successful economic union then political independence becomes easier to grant the minority peoples in a Courland or Lorraine or Danish Schleswig, they are still locked in a mutual defense pact if there is a USSR to threaten stability, or at worst solidly neutrals, even France would in time find it impossible not to improve relations with Germany. But then we get the colonial holdings and that gets us back to the bitter game that might spoil things.

All of this is actually pretty good. Indeed, the main things that I disagree with are your idea to outright annex Latvia and Estonia as well as your assertion that the U.K. would have remained neutral in WWI without a German invasion of Belgium.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Ah, fair one. But we're supposed to be discussing Caliguy's map, aren't we? Any map having extensive annexations into Germany are a no-go, IMHO. Vassals and puppets, by all means. Spheres of influence and economic dominance, most definitely. Maybe even destruction of fortifications in a "demilitarised zone" would be a good one. I just can't see a SPD dominated Reichstag approving wholesale balkanisation of Central Europe and then absorbing parts of these antagonised nations into Germany. Gemany may exit a victorious alt-WWI as the most powerful nation on the continent, but in many of these maps they would be friendless. History teaches us no matter how iron the determination to keep enemies under the heel at the end of a War, the urge will fade given time. Tie that to revanchsim, which unless France ceases to exist post war is guaranteed, then you've brewed the perfect formula for round two.
I mostly agree with this, but the SPD might very well support the idea of having more potential SPD voters be put inside of Germany; after all, every party wants to have more votes.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Here is how Europe should look after WWI:

BBrheVN.png



And this is how Austria-Hungary should be split up:

hQxjvqv.png



Just so that nobody is confused: German-Austria gets integrated as a Kingdom and a Duchy into the German Empire while Hungary becomes an independent kingdom, as does Croatia. Both Hungary and Croatia get parts of Serbia. So do Bulgaria and Albania. Lithuania becomes a Duchy in alliance with Germany. Latvia and Estonia get merged into the Baltic confederation or the United Baltic Duchy or whatever which is in alliance with Germany. Poland becomes an independent Kingdom in a customs union with Germany. Ukraine and Belarus become independent states in which Germany has exclusive extraction rigths for certain ressources.

In the west Germany annexes Luxemburg and gets to occupy a part of the French border for 10 years. Germany limits the amount of coal and steel which may be extracted from cerain mines in northern France. Flanders gets annexed by the Netherlands. The Walloons become an independent duchy under the "protection" of Germany.
If possible, you might as well strip Russia's Caucasian territories from it as well. Also, in regards to occupying southern Belgium, why not simply turn all of Belgium into a German protectorate?

Otherwise, though, your maps are pretty good. :) Indeed, what exactly were your source maps for these two maps?
 
If possible, you might as well strip Russia's Caucasian territories from it as well. Also, in regards to occupying southern Belgium, why not simply turn all of Belgium into a German protectorate?

Otherwise, though, your maps are pretty good. :) Indeed, what exactly were your source maps for these two maps?

I was pretty lazy when I made the upper map. I got that one as a blank map from the Map-Thread in the AH Media section.

The lower I made based on an ethnic map of Austria-Hungary I found a year ago or so when I was trying to make a map of a perfectly divided AH Empire.
 

Deleted member 94680

Not sure I follow. If A/H has collapsed in the aftermath of a CP victory,

Again, why would they collapse if they’ve won?

there is no likelihood of further war in the near term.

Based on what theory? So the Empire collapses in complete peace and calm does it? No inter-regional strife, no border conflicts between the successor states that get on so badly they dissolve a victorious Empire? Can’t say I see it myself, but fair enough.

And if A/H has collapsed (the only situation in which this issue would ever arise) these German-populated areas have to go somewhere. If not into Germany, then where? There isn't really anywhere else.

Err... Austria? Are you seriously sticking to your point so badly that you’re just going to deny the existence of an independent, sovereign, Austria? That’s impressive.

Actually if anyone objects it is more likely to be the Prussian Junkers, who might be concerned that the absorption of all these South German Catholics could dilute their ascendancy in the Reich. The SPD and Centre parties, for their part, might welcome it for precisely the same reason.

So if the SPD (who were anti-annexationist, would have concerns about wage competition from second class non-German citizens and were generally against military expansion and aggrandisement) then the social class who control the military and the diplomatic corps would be opposed to it, but it would still happen? Ok. OTL, given the political map of Imperial Germany Caliguy provided on another thread, the SPD doesn’t seem to have been that well represented in Polish areas of the Reich. Not sure the “Poles and Czechs would be a SPD voter base” theory hangs together, to be fair.
 

Deleted member 94680

I mostly agree with this, but the SPD might very well support the idea of having more potential SPD voters be put inside of Germany; after all, every party wants to have more votes.

Where are you getting this idea that annexed Poles will be loyal SPD voters?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Where are you getting this idea that annexed Poles will be loyal SPD voters?
They might vote for their own parties but given the Polonophobia of the German right, the Polish parties could conspire with the SPD to form a governing coalition.
 

Deleted member 94680

They might vote for their own parties but given the Polonophobia of the German right, the Polish parties could conspire with the SPD to form a governing coalition.

The Poles in the Reich didn’t vote for the SPD in any great numbers, nor did they conspire with them either. Why should they do different now the Reich is even more an oppressor of their chances of independence? OTL, the minute Germany was sufficiently weakened they began fighting for union with Poland. The SPD may be anti-annexationist, but it was hardly a friend of Polish emancipation.
 
Again, why would they collapse if they’ve won?

I don't know that they would, but there seems to be a pretty widespread assumption on this forum that A/H would soon fall apart even if on the winning side. I was accepting it as a possibility.



Based on what theory? So the Empire collapses in complete peace and calm does it? No inter-regional strife, no border conflicts between the successor states that get on so badly they dissolve a victorious Empire? Can’t say I see it myself, but fair enough.

I meant major war with other great powers



... Austria? Are you seriously sticking to your point so badly that you’re just going to deny the existence of an independent, sovereign, Austria? That’s impressive.

Would the Germans of Austria particularly want to be "independent and sovereign" if they no longer had an empire? They became so in 1919 only because the Entente insisted on it, and in this scenario the Entente is defeated and in no position to insist on anything.



So if the SPD (who were anti-annexationist, would have concerns about wage competition from second class non-German citizens and were generally against military expansion and aggrandisement) then the social class who control the military and the diplomatic corps would be opposed to it, but it would still happen? Ok. OTL, given the political map of Imperial Germany Caliguy provided on another thread, the SPD doesn’t seem to have been that well represented in Polish areas of the Reich. Not sure the “Poles and Czechs would be a SPD voter base” theory hangs together, to be fair.

I agree the Sozis may have reservations about incorporating Czechs and Slovenes, but I don't see why they should have any problem about Austria's Germans joining the Reich, if that was what the latter wished. A voluntary Anschluss would not be seen as "annexation". And quite a few German-Austrians did vote socialist, and would presumably continue to do so as German citizens. Most others would probably vote for the Zentrum.
 
What would you do within the realm of feasibility after a CP victory, though?
.

My suggestion/joke is entirely feasible, and could be improved by adding German "reparations" to France and Belgium in order to rebuild war damaged areas a bit like the Marshall plan. It could well lead to something like the EU but 30 years early. I do actually think this is the CP policy that would maximise the welfare of the German public as we would understand it today. The problem isn't feasibility, but the mind set and objectives of the CP. The CP leaders wanted to maximise their power in the international system (they didn't necessarily recognise a difference between that and welfare). The optimal thing to do if the CPs want to maximise their power is basically to annex as much as possible, which is open ended and depends on the degree of CP victory, which you don't specify. So the answer comes back to what is meant by optimal and what is the degree of victory
 

Deleted member 94680

So the answer comes back to what is meant by optimal and what is the degree of victory

This. A thousand times this.

Optimal borders for Germany where the War lasts a few months and they end up in Paris before anyone really knows what’s happened would be totally different to what Germany would consider optimal on the back of a War that ends in 1920 after half of their population is malnourished.
 
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