Snake Featherston
Banned
One must assume that order is restored after Valykrie under a leader with some sense.
Instead of surrendering, Rommell decides do withdraw the Western armies from most of France to this line. My pictures don't work on my computer. The line is the Iyselmeer to the Maas to the Vosges. The lines are shortened and the allies have much longer supply lines.
I would witdraw all troops in Italy to the Po, and occupation forces in Yugoslavia toward Trieste-Zagreb. I would let Horthy withdraw from the war and withdraw from most of Hungary, with a possible Balaton-Buda-Bratislava line. I would also withdraw the forces from Scandinavia as soon as posible.
With these withdrawals many more troops would be available for the Russian front. When the Warsaw Rising takes place, I would order the troops to stand down and gradually withdraw from in front of the Armija Kraiova, occupying only Pommern to Ost Preussen. Reminding the AK of Katyn, I hope that the Red Army would find some unrest.
With the Red Army facing much stronger opositon and dealing with restive Poles, I would hope that they would make a separate peace.
Failing that, I would gradualy withdraw the armies in the West to Lubeck, Berlin and points east. Then I would surrender. At this time the Russians would still be somewhere near Posen.
In this context you're looking at a completely different war, and the Soviets have a completely different set of options. They may well annihilate the entire set of German forces in the East during the period of command disarray and morale collapse facing their central army. They'll find the concept of dealing with the Poles later an easier one, and the democracies are going to have logistical reality set in no matter what happens in the East, they won't reach Berlin before winter, by which point the Soviets are going to be very much closer to it than IOTL.
The Poles for their part may think if they wait until after the war's over the Soviets won't resort back to what they were doing 1939-41 from a misguided view of what Stalin was going to do in victory and a mixture of opportunism, and then reality ensues.