Operation Unthinkable if Soviets Weren’t Allies

Supposing in WWII, the W Allies decide to not arm or aid the Soviets whether it’s just on ideological ‘we don’t want a powerful Soviet Union in Europe’ level or worse, the Allies initially declared war on the Soviets for attacking Poland/Finland but it’s more of a phoney war where technically they’re at war but neither really wants to fight (esp. once Germany backhands the Soviets in 1941)....

Do you think Operation Unthinkable becomes more plausible?

There’s some details that you might have to consider like how well would the Soviets perform without lend lease (I doubt they’d collapse but I definitely see the second world war taking longer to end) or would we have to remove Roosevelt and replace him with an anti communist and so on?

But yeah, you think Unthinkable would be more likely if the Soviets weren’t treated as an Ally by the west? I think without or little dialogue on the post war map, the race for Berlin would be even greater and risk the chance of ‘friendly fire’ and that could prove either side the casus belli to declare war.
 
It almost happened ... if Hitler had let Stalin invade Poland first, and UK decides to 'honour' the Polish Guarantee it would mean UK war agaist the Soviets.

Even if UK abandons the Poles, all Hitler then has to do is sit back and waits for the Soviets to make a real mess of things.. they already starved to death 6 million Ukrainians in the 1930's so the Katyn masacre is still going to happen (maybe even earlier than the historical April/May 1940) and Hitler could easily make sure details leaked ..

When Hitler offers to 'liberate' Poland (and Ukraine etc) from the 'yoke of Comminist oppression' starting Sunday, 22 June 1941, he's likley to get a positive response for UK (even if UK is not at war against Stalin) .. If UK DID honour the Polish Guarantee then the BEF could even find itself fighting side by side with the Nazi's !!
 
Supposing in WWII, the W Allies decide to not arm or aid the Soviets whether it’s just on ideological ‘we don’t want a powerful Soviet Union in Europe’ level or worse, the Allies initially declared war on the Soviets for attacking Poland/Finland but it’s more of a phoney war where technically they’re at war but neither really wants to fight (esp. once Germany backhands the Soviets in 1941)....

Do you think Operation Unthinkable becomes more plausible?

Without Western aid, the Soviets will have collapsed by 1943 at the latest, if not earlier.
 
Without Western aid, the Soviets will have collapsed by 1943 at the latest, if not earlier.

From what I heard, it was more likely that the Soviet push into Germany would have taken longer, probably taking even more casualties as they're unable to perform those massive breakthroughs and encirclements. I think if the W Allies manage to nuke Germany, the Soviets probably would more or less reach Poland. I can definitely see the W Allies consider liberating Poland via first-strike what with the Russian military suffering catastrophic losses and having less equipment thanks to no lend lease.
 
From what I heard, it was more likely that the Soviet push into Germany would have taken longer, probably taking even more casualties as they're unable to perform those massive breakthroughs and encirclements. I think if the W Allies manage to nuke Germany, the Soviets probably would more or less reach Poland. I can definitely see the W Allies consider liberating Poland via first-strike what with the Russian military suffering catastrophic losses and having less equipment thanks to no lend lease.

They'd literally starve to death if it wasn't for Western food shipments; Hunger and War: Food Provisioning in the Soviet Union during World War II makes it clear that American food supplies was the only thing that kept the Red Army going, and even then there was mass death among the civilians into 1944.
 
if the soviets are not allies..
If the soviets invade the Baltics and Poland and the German deal was in place and the Germans didn't go, then the soviets are that much closer to German soil, and have time to dig in knowing that the Germans can not be trusted. that would make an invasion even more difficult.

Now if the Germans start jumping up and down screaming .. look we told you so! we told you so! those are the real monsters! look look! they might get some attention especially if the Germans haven't invaded anyone else. So what you get is gangbang on the Soviets from the Germans, French and British. The Germans get what they want in the east to some degree. maybe not everything envisioned, but they will be one enemy less to have to deal with when things are clear. The Soviets could not beat all three against them.

Also he Germans would be crazy to bait the soviets, then turn and invade France leaving the east insecure with someone they just threw to the wolves sitting on their border.

Basically WW II just went regional and awkward.
 

FBKampfer

Banned
If it's OTL Allied forces, absolutely.

One thing that would have been immediately clear after Germany fell was that bombers might not be able to level cities, and demoralize a population, or kill production. But they can sure as hell strangle field armies of their supplies and transportation.


Couple that with superior tanks, infantry small-arms, more extensive support weapons, better artillery coordination, and basically better everything under the sun, and you get a good recipe for a hell of a lot of dead Russians.


Basically the way I see it going down is the Soviets start trying to push forward once the bombings start (which is the worst thing they can do in that situation). About 6 weeks later, Soviet forces west of the Elbe are damn near out of gas, hungry, and demoralized, and will be mopped up by week 8.

Allied forces push through the Alps threatening the southern flank, while Simultaneously they are advancing through Northern Germany, and naval landings are taking place near Lübeck and Schwerin. Basically Inchon happens about 5 years early.

Once Soviet positions in Northern Germany unravel, and Allied forces push even a bit into Czechoslovakia and Southern Germany, they're left with a salient around Berlin. This will be cut off in short order, cutting massive holes in the Soviet lines.

Zhukov will end up facing the same situation as the Germans were at the end of 1944. Clear knowledge of how to respond, but an inability to do so for want of fuel, transport, and operational mobility.

Large numbers of Soviet soldiers will escape east on foot, and the front will stabilize near the Vistula due to Allied need to clear out the Baltic for shipping and rebuilding the infrastructure they destroyed.

Stalin is told he can keep everything East of Poland, and he can take it or he can take it without any navy left above water, most of his navy below water remaining there permanently, no transport infrastructure within range of Allied bombers, every costal city being shelled until ships on station deplete their ammunition, and a few cities going up in radioactive fire.



Uncle Mustache will be livid, but Winnie will gleefully tell him he can stick it up his ass, or the Allies will gladly finished cramming the last few inches in.
 
Hunger and War: Food Provisioning in the Soviet Union during World War II makes it clear that American food supplies was the only thing that kept the Red Army going, and even then there was mass death among the civilians into 1944.

Where does it make this clear? The central theme of Hunger and War is that the Soviet war effort was sustained by a combination of the Soviet state and small scale collective enterprises.
 

gaijin

Banned
It almost happened ... if Hitler had let Stalin invade Poland first, and UK decides to 'honour' the Polish Guarantee it would mean UK war agaist the Soviets.

Even if UK abandons the Poles, all Hitler then has to do is sit back and waits for the Soviets to make a real mess of things.. they already starved to death 6 million Ukrainians in the 1930's so the Katyn masacre is still going to happen (maybe even earlier than the historical April/May 1940) and Hitler could easily make sure details leaked ..

When Hitler offers to 'liberate' Poland (and Ukraine etc) from the 'yoke of Comminist oppression' starting Sunday, 22 June 1941, he's likley to get a positive response for UK (even if UK is not at war against Stalin) .. If UK DID honour the Polish Guarantee then the BEF could even find itself fighting side by side with the Nazi's !!

Uhm, no. This did not almost happen, not even close. If the Germans let the Soviets invade the Soviets simply sit on their ass and say "No no, by all means, be my guest, after you". You know, like they did in reality.

Stalin may have made many mistakes but he wasn't stupid enough to fall for that kind of Mickey Mouse ploy. There is a reason the Soviets waited with their invasion: they wanted the Germans to be the aggressors so they could ride in to "protect" Eastern Poland.
 

gaijin

Banned
Where does it make this clear? The central theme of Hunger and War is that the Soviet war effort was sustained by a combination of the Soviet state and small scale collective enterprises.

It doesn't make that clear at all. But how else can we make the Germans win?
 

Wimble Toot

Banned
Without Western aid, the Soviets will have collapsed by 1943 at the latest, if not earlier.

They'd literally starve to death if it wasn't for Western food shipments


lend lease food2.jpg
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Without Western aid, the Soviets will have collapsed by 1943 at the latest, if not earlier.

This.

From what I heard, it was more likely that the Soviet push into Germany would have taken longer, probably taking even more casualties as they're unable to perform those massive breakthroughs and encirclements.

Without American trucks, especially, the Red Army would have had extremely limited mobility and would be unable to mount major offensives over long distances. They'd have been reduced to the state of the Iranian army in the Iran-Iraq War, basically being forced to rely on human wave attacks. So without those "massive breakthroughs and encirclements", the Russians never would have been able to push the Germans out of their own territory.
 
Without American trucks, especially, the Red Army would have had extremely limited mobility and would be unable to mount major offensives over long distances. They'd have been reduced to the state of the Iranian army in the Iran-Iraq War, basically being forced to rely on human wave attacks. So without those "massive breakthroughs and encirclements", the Russians never would have been able to push the Germans out of their own territory.

I'm wary of this thread turning into another tedious Lend-Lease debate but whilst American trucks were certainly important to ensuring that the Soviet's had superior mobility, the lack thereof would not have reduced the Soviets to "human wave attacks". One of the main reasons that American transport vehicles were in such high demand was that Soviet motor industries had been directed to focus almost all of their efforts on armour production. The basic components of the breakthroughs would still be there but the ability to then exploit them would be curtailed. Thankfully the importance of American vehicles reached their peak after Kursk, when the Germans were already on the ropes, so the hindrance has an effect on delaying the end of the war but not in changing the outcome. The idea of the Soviets collapsing in 1943 due to a lack of food and supplies they hadn't received historically is just silly.
 
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Wimble Toot

Banned
The idea of the Soviets collapsing in 1943 due to a lack of food and supplies they hadn't received hsitorically is just silly.

You can't have your citizens fighting the Germans and getting the (shrunken) harvest in at the same time.

You can't do human wave attacks without boots - or rifles.
 
As noted, a reduction in mobility doesn't translate to human wave attacks.

But the enemy is at the gates, AND WE HAVE NO TRUCKS.


Without food subsidies Soviet manpower becomes more precious. Why would they respond to such a development with more brute force attacks?
 
But the enemy is at the gates, AND WE HAVE NO TRUCKS.

It's important to note that when the "enemy was at the gates" Lend-Lease was in its infancy and its impact was negligible and came in smaller amounts than materials the Soviets bought from the United States. In the Battle of Moscow, for example, American equipment was limited to a single fighter wing.
 
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