Operation Torch captures Tunis 1942

Deleted member 1487

You are making some odd assumptions, especially about the deployment of heavy AA guns.

They will be deployed to protect key logistics and production points e.g. Ports, railway choke points and marshalling yards, army depots, airfields, war factories - see 20th Flak division with named groups for Sfax and Sousse. There is no reason for many to be lost in the retreat from Egypt, as they will not be at the front but spread between Bardia, Torbruk, Benghazi, Tripoli. Again there is little reason to deploy a large number to Sicily (apart from Messina) when the Allied heavy bombers are concentrated on Naples, Rome, Turin etc
Army AAA guns, Rommel used a bunch of 88s for ground combat remember?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8.8_cm_Flak_18/36/37/41#Support_of_ground_troops
During the North African campaign, Rommel made the most effective use of the weapon, as he lured tanks of the British Eighth Army into traps by baiting them with apparently retreating German panzers. A mere two flak battalions destroyed 264 British tanks in 1941.[7] Repeated high tank loss from well-placed 8.8 cm Flak guns in the battles of Halfaya Pass earned it the nickname "Hellfire Pass". Later in that theater, in the Battle of Faid in Tunisia, Rommel camouflaged many 8.8 cm Flaks (with additional 7.5 cm Pak 40s and 5 cm Pak 38s) in cactus-filled areas. Inexperienced U.S. tankers and commanders rushed into a valley at Faid only to be obliterated. When the U.S. Army's M3 Stuart and M4 Sherman tanks pursued, concealed German guns picked them off at ranges far beyond those of their 37mm and 75 mm guns respectively.

AFAIK those were not counted toward Luftwaffe FLAK and FLAK division numbers. 88s and other heavy FLAK calibers were useful for airfield defense, which was important for Sicily as they were under a fair bit of attack from 1943 on. Likely most of the heavy FLAK in Italy/North Africa, all >280 batteries in 1943, was in Africa defending ports and other installations, plus perhaps more supporting Rommel. Given that at a minimum every battery had 4 guns each then with over 280 batteries that is over 1000 heavy AAA guns in the Central Mediterranean and having most in Africa would at least mean over 600 just German AAA, not counting Italian. Leaving 19th and 20th FLAK divisions in Sicily/Italy instead of rushing them to Africa (and in some cases absorbing FLAK brigades already there), instead evacuating FLAK from Africa at Libyan ports to Sicily in November-December 1942 would then mean the vast majority of those ~280 heavy FLAK batteries are in Italy by 1943 instead of North Africa.
 
You are simply repeating an unsupported assertion that in your opinion, 'the vast majority' of the flak would have to be in North Africa, rather than protecting key strategic and logistic points inItaly e.g. Port of Naples and other places the Allied heavy bombers targeted.

Even if they were in North Africa, they do not seem to have been very effective in protecting the ports and other targets there from Allied bombing, so why should they have any impact in Sicily?:rolleyes:
 

Deleted member 1487

You are simply repeating an unsupported assertion that in your opinion, 'the vast majority' of the flak would have to be in North Africa, rather than protecting key strategic and logistic points inItaly e.g. Port of Naples and other places the Allied heavy bombers targeted.

Even if they were in North Africa, they do not seem to have been very effective in protecting the ports and other targets there from Allied bombing, so why should they have any impact in Sicily?:rolleyes:
Did you not say that other than the Straights of Messina that there wasn't going to be a ton protected in Sicily? Strategic bombing of Italy didn't start from North Africa until after Tunisia fell IOTL. The RAF did some shuttle bombing in late 1942 and early 1943:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_bombing_during_World_War_II#Bombing_in_Italy
Southern Italy started in late 1942. So probably 40% of German heavy AAA was in southern and northern Italy, while the Italians had their own AAA to use. The majority of bombing of Southern Italy started after Tunisia fell, so from June onward. There was much more extensive bombing of Libyan and Tunisian ports, bases, and airfields in late 1942-43. The US for instance had a heavy bomber group in Palestine to bomb Benghazi and Tobruk. Germany probably had more FLAK in Sicily prior to the Tunisian campaign, as there were no FLAK divisions in North Africa until Operation Torch, then there were two, absorbing FLAK brigades in North Africa already. So it seems that defenses in Sicily were quite a bit thinned out once the decision to fight in Tunisia was made. Libya-Tunisia is a much greater area and I'm willing to bet a lot was lost in the retreat from Libya, as Rommel tried to evacuate a bunch of equipment from Toburk, but had to ditch it to retreat to Benghazi. Had the decision in November been made to retreat from Libya due to Tunis falling early, then much more could be saved, then IOTL when Rommel was told to hold as far forward as possible and wasn't allow to evacuate equipment in ports until too late.

In Sicily, a much smaller area where more guns could be concentrated, especially 2 FLAK divisions worth, plus Italian guns, did see a major impact of FLAK. See the evacuation via Messina, the Allies couldn't touch it from the air due to the density of FLAK, which was less than 300 total guns, only half heavy guns.
 
Army AAA guns, Rommel used a bunch of 88s for ground combat remember?
AFAIK those were not counted toward Luftwaffe FLAK and FLAK division numbers.

I'm afraid that they were.

It's more useful to ignore the Flak Divisions, as they were effectively HQ units only, and focus on their constituent Regiments. As far as I can tell the heavy flak units of 19th Flak Division were 102nd, 135th and 114th Regiments which all went to Africa in 1941, with the first 2 at El Alamein, and the third at Benghazi in late 1942. 20th Flak Division had 154th Flak Regiment plus various battalions at Bizerta and Sousse (total 10 battalions).

Bombing of Naples, which is obviously a strategic target, started in November 1940, with US heavies joining in before the end of 1942.

Germany probably had more FLAK in Sicily prior to the Tunisian campaign
So it seems that defenses in Sicily were quite a bit thinned out once the decision to fight in Tunisia was made.
So which AA units were in Sicily and were moved after November 1942, or are these just guesses?

I'm willing to bet a lot was lost in the retreat from Libya
Ditto

There is little evidence of German AA units based in Sicily, other than temporarily in transit to Africa. As far as I can tell OTL German 88mm Flak units in Sicily in July 1943 were 1 battalion at Catania and the HG divisional flak (3 heavy batteries). The defence of the Messina Straits was done from units based on the mainland, under 22 Flak Brigade.
 
Looking at my notes, which have some holes, it appears the Allies would have had something like air parity over the strait with Sicily and the sea routes to Lybia, had the all weather airfields @ Tunis & Bizerte been secured intact in November. Aside from the relatively fast build up OTL in Algeria, it seems there were some issues with the Scillian airfields.
 
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