Operation Sealion succeeds...

[dmz23]

Yes,lets assume that Hitler cancels the invasion of the Soviet union in 1941 and launches Sealion MkII and it succeeds. Britain's occupied,S.Ireland is allowed to maintain a pro-axis neutrality and some naval facilities are set up in N.Ireland for the kriegsmarine. I'm aware how ASB,all that is but what i'm really interested in is how Britains fall in 1941,would effect a 1942 Barbarossa campaign. Would the Germans be able to deliver a knock-out blow to the Soviet union with the additional materials/resources available following Britains defeat? Would the Soviet Union appeal to the U.S for more lend-lease aid and would they get it? Would the Germans achieve the element of 'surprise' as in the OTL 1941 invasion or would Stalin believe the warnings of his Intel services and place his frontier armies in better defensive positions?

 

[Chilperic]

Yes,lets assume that Hitler cancels the invasion of the Soviet union in 1941 and launches Sealion MkII and it succeeds. Britain's occupied,S.Ireland is allowed to maintain a pro-axis neutrality and some naval facilities are set up in N.Ireland for the kriegsmarine. I'm aware how ASB,all that is but what i'm really interested in is how Britains fall in 1941,would effect a 1942 Barbarossa campaign. Would the Germans be able to deliver a knock-out blow to the Soviet union with the additional materials/resources available following Britains defeat? Would the Soviet Union appeal to the U.S for more lend-lease aid and would they get it? Would the Germans achieve the element of 'surprise' as in the OTL 1941 invasion or would Stalin believe the warnings of his Intel services and place his frontier armies in better defensive positions?

Oh no! The unmentionable sea mammal!

 

[Dan1988]

Does not compute . . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . . does not compute. . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . . does not compute. . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . . does not compute. . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . . does not compute. . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . . does not compute. . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . . does not compute. . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . . does not compute. . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . . does not compute. . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . . does not compute. . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . . does not compute. . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . . does not compute. . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . . does not compute. . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . . does not compute. . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . . does not compute. . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . . does not compute. . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . . does not compute. . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . . does not compute. . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . . does not compute. . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . . does not compute. . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . . does not compute. . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . does not compute . . . . . . . does not compute

**computer crashes**

 

[Hannibal.Caesar]

Yes,lets assume that Hitler cancels the invasion of the Soviet union in 1941 and launches Sealion MkII and it succeeds. Britain's occupied,S.Ireland is allowed to maintain a pro-axis neutrality and some naval facilities are set up in N.Ireland for the kriegsmarine. I'm aware how ASB,all that is but what i'm really interested in is how Britains fall in 1941,would effect a 1942 Barbarossa campaign. Would the Germans be able to deliver a knock-out blow to the Soviet union with the additional materials/resources available following Britains defeat? Would the Soviet Union appeal to the U.S for more lend-lease aid and would they get it? Would the Germans achieve the element of 'surprise' as in the OTL 1941 invasion or would Stalin believe the warnings of his Intel services and place his frontier armies in better defensive positions?

 

[Anaxagoras]

To be fair, he's not really talking about the unmentionable sea mammal- he's talking about 1941 rather than 1940. A great deal could happen between the summer of 1940 and the summer of 1941. If one assumes that Hitler, for whatever reason, determines not to attack the Soviets until Britain has been defeated, and decides on a direct invasion rather than a Mediterranean strategy, we would see a lot of changes. If it is still ASB, it's not as ASBish as the unmentionable sea mammal.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

AAIIIGGHHH!!!!!!​

 

[Sachyriel]

Woah, is it just me or do all the newbs who rush in here just to ask that question love lowercase?

Dude, if Sealion Happened, Britian would have eventually bombed it's own ass back under the Sea.

How about that for a British Lion?

 

[Germaniac]

Well, well, well,lets see unless hitler can Build a fleet as large as the british, can completely overpower the RAF, design a successful landing craft, mass produce large numbers of good tanks, have stalin send himself to a gulag so hitler isnt afraid of him attacking, have mussolini and his "new roman empire" not suck everywhere it attacked, and capture the french navy for german use in med. then its still highly unlikely

 

[Germaniac]

and 1941 was the perfect time to invade USSR, just not he right month, the longer you wait the closer they are to pumping out the t34
​

 

[alt_historian]

Woah, is it just me or do all the newbs who rush in here just to ask that question love lowercase?

a) he isn't a noob, look at his join date.
b) It's in (badly spaced) normal case, capitals and everything.

Dude, if Sealion Happened, Britian would have eventually bombed it's own ass back under the Sea.

How about that for a British Lion?

Um... what?

 

[Something]

To be fair, he doesn't state what happen to cause mammal umentionable to succeed, but what will happen if it did and the GB went under German domination.

 

[CalBear]

Somebody get the tar heated up. I'll go get the feathers and a split rail.

 

[Seldrin]

NOOOOOOOO!!!! Teh evol sea monster will kill us all with its impossibility.

 

[Nietzsche]

Wings sprout from my ass and fly me into space.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Germany neve had what they'd need to pull of Sealion, had they by some ASBish intervention been able to get a beach head in Britain, Britain would have fallen. But as I said, they never had what it would have taken to pull it of.

 

[Karlos]

Well, you could still make the same questions without an invasion.
It is not implausible that the british agree to sign a peace treaty with the germans. In summer 1940, they were close to do so. Change some people in charge, specially Churchill but also FDR, and you can get it.
Then you can have a 1941 Barbarrossa without western front. The best possible situation for the germans, no doubt.
To get that situation in 1942, you can have Hitler going after the Med, Churchill going away and London making peace after Suez has fallen in late 1941.
It ain't as funny as a Sealion, but more plausible.

 

[Jukra]

Yes,lets assume that Hitler cancels the invasion of the Soviet union in 1941 and launches Sealion MkII and it succeeds.

Without going into ihq daa teinix (that's NetFinnish for usual Sealion reaction) , I think it would be interesting, for change, to ponder whether a Sealion in 1941 might have had a chance of succeeding:

Following factors for German benefit come to my mind:

-Kriegsmarine has had time to recuperate from Norwegian campaign and also has expanded. Taking a quick count, by mid-summer 1941 Kriegsmarine has (tadaa!), 16 destroyers and 23 torpedo boats (not MTB's), 2 heavy cruisers, two Panzerschiffe, 2 battle cruisers and 1 or 2 battleships. While still not a match for RN, it's not an insignificant force either
-Torpedoes which explode
-Expanded U-boat force, which by employing effective weapons is a farce no more. Even small Type II's could be used
-Expanded mine warfare force for both minesweeping and minelaying
-Vastly expanded MTB-force
-German Navy and Luftwaffe (!) have operational landing craft
http://www.german-navy.de/kriegsmarine/ships/landingcrafts/index.html
-Luftwaffe has had time to ponder the lessons of 1940 air campaign.
-Luftwaffe has proven capability of hitting enemy ships with deadly effect
-Luftwaffe has Ju-88 in widespread service as well as Me-109F. By late summer Fw-190 is also entering service.
-Recuperated 7th Parachute Division and 22nd Luftlande Division
-Mediterranean Campaign, even in ATL form, has had a effect upon RN strength. AFAIK, much of the war emergency production was to enter service in 1942. Taking a quick count, by summer of 1941 RN has (with taking into account shipping losses up to end of April 1941):

-4 QE-class BB
-4 Revenge class (secondary operations?) BB
-2 KGV-class BB
-2 Nelson-class BB
-2 Renown-class BC
-1 Hood-class BC
-6 carriers

Cruisers (not counting C,D,E and Hawkins-class)
-2 Crown Colony CL
-7 Town-class CL
-4 Arethusa class CL
-8 Leander/Perth CL
-3 Dido-class CL
-13 County class CA
-2 York class CA
-Total of 24 CL, 15 CA

-15 J & K class DD
-13 Tribal class DD
-13 G&H class DD
-15 E&F class DD
-7 C&D class DD
-5 B class DD
-A total of 68 destroyers (Towns and V&W were in escort service by that date). Some of these have to stay in the Far East and Mediterranean.

In OTL, a very large number of these ships were sank or crucially damaged by U-boats and air power during next OTL year. The experience of Crete should be noted. RN suffered extremely heavy losses due to airpower alone within few days. In Sealion-1941 scenario the Kriegsmarine, complete with mines, MTB's, U-boats and surface ships should be added to mix.

British benefits compared to 1940 include:
-Fortifications
-Rebuilt Army
-Expanded RAF and Army AAA. RAF is still weaker than Luftwaffe, especially as it cannot ignore Mediterranean and Far East.

http://www.tsj.net/avstats/strength.html

 

[Jukra]

I'll continue to provoke on this Sealion-1941 scenario, with very quick and dirty ATL to make at least an attempt possible:


It's September 1940 and Hitler is deciding what to do next? Soviet Union is the obvious target but it's darn big and fighting a two-front war does not sound a good idea, especially as Britain has Canada and United States as it's unreachable industrial depots.

While quite obviously Sealion cannot be achieved during this year, there is also another possibility to knock out Britain out of war and to make positions for the assault on Soviet Union better. That is the Mediterranean strategy proposed by Raeder.

Thus the die is cast: the grand order of things will be to knock Britain out of war in 1941 and then attack Soviet Union in 1942.

Knocking the Britain out of war will be reached by three prongs; first prong is to strengthen support for Italians in the Mediterranean by sending in additional air units, perhaps also some U-boats and ground units as well. If necessary, Balkans will be occupied. These efforts can begin quickly and will sap RN and RAF strength, and also force Britain to send significant ground forces to Middle East.

Second prong is an aerial and naval interdiction campaign against British sealines of communication.

The most important prong will be an invasion of Great Britain during Summer of 1941, Summer of Hate. This will require a modest amount of ground forces but concentration of virtually all Luftwaffe and Kriegsmarine units. Mere preparations of an invasion will force Britain to keep significant forces in British isles, thus improving prospects of Mediterranean campaign and aerial and naval interdiction of British sealanes.

The most important needs of naval transportation can be met in Summer of 1941 using purpose-built landing craft instead of barges. And while British defenders in 1941 will be stronger than during Autumn of 1940, they will be still vastly inferior to German forces in quality.

 

[grdja83]

You have to have Hitler recognize the need for invading England in late '30es. Someone other than Goerring in charge of Luftwaffe. Good and well piloted naval bombers (tons of them). Real landing ships.

 

[Jukra]

You have to have Hitler recognize the need for invading England in late '30es. Someone other than Goerring in charge of Luftwaffe. Good and well piloted naval bombers (tons of them). Real landing ships.

By hook and crook, less Göring, these conditions might be perhaps reached by Summer of 1941. After all, after training and proper ordnance Luftwaffe proved to be more than able to sink RN ships. Real landing ships, MFP, were also coming on line.

By April 1941 British aerial defences, Fighter Command, had 60 fighter squadrons compared to 55 at the end of the Battle of Britain. Bomber Command tactical bombers in Britain were still Blenheims and Hampdens, while strategic bombers were Stirlings and Wellingtons.

At land, British Army relied on five armored divisions and 17 infantry divisions. While this is an impressive number, many of these units had been culled to provide reinforcements to the Mediterranean. The tank units had a total of 1000 tanks. While this number is impressive, these "tanks" were Covenanters, Valentine Mk 1's etc. test pieces.