Operation Sealion "best" case scenario?

Bad weather preventing the naval operation is probably the best outcome, maybe Germany comes out ahead on aircraft losses in the build up to it, and picks off a few destroyers and cruisers raiding the french coast.


But from a ‘success on the ground’ point of view there is this...
The Germans land and manage to make headway for 24-48 before the Royal Navy and RAF closes the channel. This assumes it takes time for the UK to build up an overwhelming naval operation that crushes all before it in a glorious and cost effective manner. The invaders struggle to take more than one small port and a few towns, the heavy presence of home guard and regular formations mean they never really make it far from the landing areas. British losses in combat are heavier as they are initially more static, but once much of the invasion force is then forced to surrender the maths looks grim.

In a previous thread some years ago it was pointed out that the German plans would require 48 hours simply to form up the barge lines on the French side, some of which would take place in sight of Dover on a clear day. If it only takes 24-48 hours for the RN to close the channel then it's very possible nobody will make it across at all.
 
I am only going to put this scenario because it has been proposed in other threads and seriously support by several people.

The UK has good intel and decides that '2 Divisions are not enough', so a decision is made to allow the first wave to land unopposed at sea and to massacre the second wave at sea. It is also decided to not harass the transport planes for the first 24-48 hours. The naval part is achieve and the 2-4 additional divisions are destroyed at sea. Beside the effective 2 divisions landed in the first wave, another 1-2 arrive by air. So far, good. But then a local commander makes a mistake and a road towards London is left open. Also a few paratroopers land in surburbs of London. The light fighting on the fringe of London cause panic and a mass evacuation. It takes another week more than planned to wipe out the last pockets of Germans. Since much of a German division made it into urban areas, much of this zone is destroyed in the battle. The pictures of the masses fleeing London largely negate what is a clear tactical and strategic victory for the UK.

Oh God help us not this again.

For the benefit of anyone reading this who thinks it sounds like a good plan, the counterargument is that there is no way in hell the Churchill government is going to deliberately let an invading force come ashore just to make it a more dramatic victory/give them a sporting chance/whatever the case may be. Maybe if you were suckering them into somewhere in Africa, but not southern England.
 
What about this: British overestimate chances of German success and resort to useing Chemical Weapons against the beachheads. Invasion is defeated with the considerable losses stipulated earlier in the thread, but the foreign backlash due to chemical weapons use kills Lend-and-Lease.
I doubt that using chemical weapons to defeat the invasion is going to be enough to make the Americans question the British intentions.

However, any use of chemical weapons does break the de facto ban on using those weapons in combat during the Second World War and I think the use of chemical weapons against civilian populations during air raids could well follow. The consequences of that would be truly horrific.
 
Oh God help us not this again.

For the benefit of anyone reading this who thinks it sounds like a good plan, the counterargument is that there is no way in hell the Churchill government is going to deliberately let an invading force come ashore just to make it a more dramatic victory/give them a sporting chance/whatever the case may be. Maybe if you were suckering them into somewhere in Africa, but not southern England.

It also ignores both the actual German invasion plan and the actual layered British defences. The German plan in its revised form called for the landing of 9 division elements plus paratroopers amounting to 90,000 men. Further but the barges let alone the other transport represented a valuable strategic target in themselves. Taking a good chunk out of the coastal and riverine transport of Germany and its new empire is a big win for the British regardless. No need to get fancy and chancy even if there are two stop lines on any available road to London in 1940 plus paratroopers are allergic to trying to land on top of anti-aircraft guns for some reason involving fear of death.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
What about this: British overestimate chances of German success and resort to useing Chemical Weapons against the beachheads. Invasion is defeated with the considerable losses stipulated earlier in the thread, but the foreign backlash due to chemical weapons use kills Lend-and-Lease.

Not sure you get the outrage you want there. Why not go with either chemical weapons against French/Belgium towns or Operation Vegetarian against Germany proper?
 
Top