That's right, it's everyone's favourite sea mammal - but the topic of this thread is not about how Sea Lion would go if launched (it would fail miserably), but rather its aftermath. Namely, after Sea Lion ends in a British victory and the German forces are repulsed/surrounded and captured, then is Germany weak enough and Britain strong enough that an early D-Day can be launched?
Let's assume that Operation Sea Lion progresses under similar circumstances to the war game conducted by Sandhurst in 1974. Here's a link to its Wikipedia article, but the bottom line is that, between September the 22nd to 28th, the attempted German invasion of Britain unfolds, with the Wehrmacht advancing several miles inland before being pinned down and repulsed by British forces, while the Royal Navy successfully intercepts and destroys the second German wave. This leaves the Germans facing (of the 90,000 soldiers who participated in the invasion) casualties consisting of 33,000 prisoners and 41,000 deaths (either falling in battle or drowning in the Channel).
Now, personally, I think that a subsequent British counter-invasion of France, landing at either Calais or Normandy, in early to mid 1941 is entirely possible in this scenario, for the following reasons:
(1) Germany has just sustained grievous losses which have damaged the Wehrmacht and left the Luftwaffe and Kriegsmarine in a state of disrepair,
(2) Occupied nations (including France) are seething with resentment against the Nazis and, after the failure of Sea Lion, will almost certainly be close to open revolt - the seemingly invincible Nazi war machine has been not only repulsed by wholly crushed by Britain,
(3) The Atlantic Wall has not yet been built, so German defences along the coast of France are not as strong as they were in 1944, and
(4) The Royal Navy is now virtually unchallenged in the Channel with the destruction of the Kriegsmarine and so can easily transport a British and Commonwealth invasion force to France.
What are your thoughts? Could such a counter-invasion take place and, if it does and succeeds, then how would the war progress from there?
Let's assume that Operation Sea Lion progresses under similar circumstances to the war game conducted by Sandhurst in 1974. Here's a link to its Wikipedia article, but the bottom line is that, between September the 22nd to 28th, the attempted German invasion of Britain unfolds, with the Wehrmacht advancing several miles inland before being pinned down and repulsed by British forces, while the Royal Navy successfully intercepts and destroys the second German wave. This leaves the Germans facing (of the 90,000 soldiers who participated in the invasion) casualties consisting of 33,000 prisoners and 41,000 deaths (either falling in battle or drowning in the Channel).
Now, personally, I think that a subsequent British counter-invasion of France, landing at either Calais or Normandy, in early to mid 1941 is entirely possible in this scenario, for the following reasons:
(1) Germany has just sustained grievous losses which have damaged the Wehrmacht and left the Luftwaffe and Kriegsmarine in a state of disrepair,
(2) Occupied nations (including France) are seething with resentment against the Nazis and, after the failure of Sea Lion, will almost certainly be close to open revolt - the seemingly invincible Nazi war machine has been not only repulsed by wholly crushed by Britain,
(3) The Atlantic Wall has not yet been built, so German defences along the coast of France are not as strong as they were in 1944, and
(4) The Royal Navy is now virtually unchallenged in the Channel with the destruction of the Kriegsmarine and so can easily transport a British and Commonwealth invasion force to France.
What are your thoughts? Could such a counter-invasion take place and, if it does and succeeds, then how would the war progress from there?