Operation Pike

Robert

Banned
In 1940 Britain and France made plans to bomb the oil fields of the Soviet Union. They believed that the Germany War Machine ran of Russian oil, and that the Nazi-Soviet Pact made them a co-belligerant. The plan was called off for a number of reasons, primarily because France fell so quickly.

What would have been the results had the raid gone forward?
 
I think it will heighten Stalin and Soviet paranoia. The Western Allies have shown themselves willing to use warfare against the Communists, at the worst possible time for Britain and France. There's no more incentives for Stalin to play nice; the Baltics are due to be occupied in June '40 anyway, the Soviets will probably be itching for a Round 2 with Finland, and I believe Allied bombers were planned to be launched from Turkey. The USSR is in terrible shape, but as Operation Barbarossa showed, the Soviets can get their act together fast.

The logistics in the region were pretty poor, and neither the USSR or Britain had quality troops to spare. Whatever occurs on that front will probably be indecisive for a while. I don't think that strategic bombing in 1940 was refined enough to achieve the desired results. I expect that the USSR will conquer most of Persia like OTL, but this is also fairly meaningless because Britain can get their oil from the USA and Indonesia still.

It places Vichy France in an interesting position. Will Stalin try to attack Syria? Allowing British troops to help the defense is essentially joining the Free French in the immediate aftermath of Operation Catapult: unlikely. But the metropolitan area can't send help, because the Nazis wouldn't allow significant help in a war with their "ally". Perhaps Syria becomes the site of the three-way war between Vichy, the USSR and Britain?
 

Robert

Banned
Timeline for Operation Pike

April 1, 1940 - At the urging of the French Government, British Bombers attack Russian Oil Fields in hopes of preventing German Invasion of France by cutting off it's oil.

April 2, 1940 - The Soviet Union declares war on Britain. Henry Wallace delivers strong speech condemning British. Massive riots by Communists in France.

April 3, 1940 - France opens secret negotiations with Russia, blaming Britain for the raid, and asking for them to mediate Peace talks with Germany. Germans cancel invasion of Denmark and Norway.

April 10, 1940 - Russia invades Iran in order to prevent further British Air Raids. British learn of French secret peace talks. Chamberlain government falls. Lord Halifax becomes Prime Minister. British asks for Cease Fire with Germany.

April 13, 1940 - Germany agrees to separate Peace talks with Britain and France. Both countries agree to recognize German occupation of Poland.

May 1, 1940 - Soviet Union completes conquest of Iran.

May 10, 1940 - Treaties of Munich (with Britain) and Strasbourg (with France). Both countries agree to return former German Afrika colonies to Third Reich. Germany agrees to mediate Peace talks between Britain and Russia.

June 22, 1940 - Communist Government comes to power in France. Lord Halifax resigns. Lloyd George chosen as Prime Minister.

July 1, 1940 - King George VI dies of a heart attack.

July 4, 1940 - King Edward VIII resumes throne. Ambassador Joseph Kennedy chosen as F.D.R.'s running mate.
 
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Robert

Banned
July 5, 1940 - Germany invades Soviet Union. Stalin goes into shock.

July 6, 1940 - France demands German end attack, begins to remobilize. Lloyd George sends delegation to discuss military cooperation against Soviet Union.

July 12, 1940 - Ukraine overrun. Soviet forces in Iran recalled. Stalin makes first radio announcement since invasion. British Army in Iraq attacks Soviet Army in Iran.

July 15, 1940 - France threatens war on Britain and Germany.

July 22, 1940 - Operation Catapult: British Forces launch carrier air raids on French fleet.
 
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Robert

Banned
August 1, 1940 - Henry Wallace launches third party campaign for President.

August 4, 1940 - French Army attacks German forces in Saar. Limited advance to Siegfried Line. German Army at gates of Moscow and Leningrad.
 
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Small quibble, Henry Wallace isn't Vice President yet. He would have been picked for the Vice Presidency July 15th-18th, 1940.

If Wallace raised such a fuss before the convention, we could end up with William Bankhead as FDR's VP...except he died before the election...so maybe Paul McNutt.

You may resume.
 
Question, if George VI dies of a Heart attack, why does Edward succeed him? Why not Elizabeth?

Elizabeth would have a regent, as she was only 14 in 1940.

As per the Regency Act of 1937, it the regent would be Prince Henry, Duke of Gloucester as the next person in the line of succession meeting the criteria of the act. Further the Regency act prevents the regent from signing into law any future law that affects the line of succession.

Edward would not be King.
 

Robert

Banned
Edward VIII resumes the Throne due to the fascist influence in the government of Prime Minister Lloyd George, who serves the same purpose as Petain did in Vichy France.
 

Robert

Banned
Sept. 1, 1940 - Soviet Siberian Army forces under Zhukov push back Germany forces from Leningrad and Moscow.

Sept. 17, 1940 - Germany Army Group South takes Stalingrad. British Middle East Forces take Tehran.

Oct. 22, 1940 - Second Battle of Trafalgar. British Fleet destroys remains of French Navy.

Nov. 5, 1940 - Wendell Wilkie elected President when Roosevelt and Wallace split the Democrat-Left vote.
 
Launching Operation Pike prior to the Battle of France would be extremely difficult, due to the logistics and reconnaissance needed to undertake the operation, along with good weather.

An Anglo-Soviet War would be very short and result in few major territorial changes; Stalin would demand reparations. A war with Britain was not what he wanted, and if one started he would begin negotiations as soon as a position of strength was secured.
 
July 5, 1940 - Germany invades Soviet Union. Stalin goes into shock.

July 6, 1940 - France demands German end attack, begins to remobilize. Lloyd George sends delegation to discuss military cooperation against Soviet Union.

July 12, 1940 - Ukraine overrun. Soviet forces in Iran recalled. Stalin makes first radio announcement since invasion. British Army in Iraq attacks Soviet Army in Iran.

July 15, 1940 - France threatens war on Britain and Germany.

July 22, 1940 - Operation Catapult: British Forces launch carrier air raids on French fleet.

A German invasion of the Soviet Union in 1940 would be a disaster for Germany.
 

Ancientone

Banned
Some observations:-
Bombing Baku
Turkey and Iran were neutral in 1940, however Basra, the biggest air base in the Middle East or RAF Habbaniya outside Baghdad were natural bases for an attack, especially as there were four squadrons of Bristol Blenheims in theatre. The French had airbases in Syria.

As mentioned above there was no mechanism for Edward to regain the throne or be Regent.
Lloyd George was 77 in 1940. He had been pro-German up until 1938 and was something of a defeatist, but he was far from fascist. There is no way that he could have received any support from the Labour Party many of whose members were a bit too supportive of the USSR, the only other credible candidate was Sir John Simon, he was also hated by Labour but may have sneaked in.

The Indian Army is not occupied in North Africa and Iraq at this point and is on hand to counter-invade Iran to protect Britsh oil wells.

There is no way outside magic wand time that the Germans could have mounted a successful invasion of the USSR in 1940, even having not utilised manpower and materiel in Norway and the Balkans/Greece.

The idea of a communist France is credible, but what does the violently anti-Communist/anti-semitic army do? Civil war?
 
Edward VIII resumes the Throne due to the fascist influence in the government of Prime Minister Lloyd George, who serves the same purpose as Petain did in Vichy France.

Which under British law is impossible; once George VI dies, the crown passes to Elizabeth, who being 14 is regent.

Parliament has already made their decision (in the act) that the regent will be Prince Henry.

Constitutional Monarchies have the virtue of being rooted in law, not the whim of "influence".
 
A good book on the plans for this and the attacks on German oil supplies in general is 'Target: Hitler's Oil - Allied Attacks on German Oil Supplies 1939 to 1945' by Roy Conyers Nesbit
 

Robert

Banned
Jan. 1, 1941 - Churchill reveals George VI was assassinated by forces loyal to Deputy Prime Minister Oswald Mosely.

Jan. 3, 1941 - Edward VIII removed. Regency under Queen Elizabeth proclaimed. Britain makes peace offer to Soviet Union, France. Hitler outraged, orders bombing of London. Netherlands neutrality violated by Germany bombers.

Jan. 4, 1941 - Netherlands mobilizes. Cease fire between British and Russian forces in Iran. French forces invited to enter Netherlands.

Jan. 20, 1941 - Wendie Wilkie sworn in as President.
 
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