Assuming the POD allows for this to occur, Operation Pike would be disastrous for the Allies in both the short and long run; depending on how damaging it was, the Soviets would see this as an act of war and take it out on Turkey and Iran, and presumably the Allied-held Middle East and throw its weight behind the Nazi-Soviet pact. The Nazis would exploit this, using the resources of the USSR granted by said pact to help bolster their warmachines to drive the Allies to the ground (though Sea Lion would still fail regardless of the attempt) and perhaps making their hold on the Mediterrean easier (provided if Italy joins in), in fact it might be a boon to them in the long run, though they still will plot to invade the USSR for their colonization schemes (provided if Hitler is still in charge). Japan is Japan, so its role is a wild card, though they could take advantage of the reinforced Nazi-Soviet pact or not. It can safely said that Pike is one of the few more truly plausible ways for the Axis to win, provided if the USA doesn't act fast about aiding the Allies via lend lease and eventually getting involved in the conflict directly (even if it could it might face an uphill battle with the USSR being the engine behind backing the Axis war efforts, until the Axis stab it in the back). And if it was to be in the war, I don't think the USA would bother with lend lease as much as OTL's provided it's increased distrust of the USSR if the latter does get attacked by the Axis.