On February 2, 1940 the Allied War council approved an operation to intervene in the Winter War against the Soviets. The Allies went to war with Germany over Poland and the Soviets were as culpable for the destruction of Poland as the Germans. The operation was set to set start on March 20th. The operation never went forward because the Norwegians and Swedes wouldn't' permit passage of foreign troops.
What if on February 2nd the War Council had approved a concurrent supporting operation, Operation Pike, to destroy Soviet oil fields in the Caucasus around the same time set for the Finland intervention, in early April, when the intervention force should have been reaching the Finnish border. Serious planning for the actual Operation Pike only began after the Winter War and was set to proceed in May but was aborted due to Fall Gelb. Unlike Sweden and Norway, Turkey and Iran, had given permission for over flights of their territory to bomb Baku, so there were no political impediments to Operation Pike.
The Soviets had war gamed offensives into Turkey and Iran in response to Operation Pike. Given the poor performance of the Iranian army during the Anglo Soviet invasion Iran would have been a push over for the Soviets. Turkey had similar terrain and was as poorly equipped as Iran. A Soviet offensive should have been successful in Turkey as well. The Soviets could have conceivably reached the Suez if Vichy and Italy cooperated.
If the Allies bombed Baku in early April 1940 how would a Soviet war in the Middle East have played out assuming Churchill becomes priminister, sticks to his guns, and doesn't compromise with Hitler or Stalin. Would the Soviets still get lend lease from the Americans if Germany invades the Soviet Union the next year?
What if on February 2nd the War Council had approved a concurrent supporting operation, Operation Pike, to destroy Soviet oil fields in the Caucasus around the same time set for the Finland intervention, in early April, when the intervention force should have been reaching the Finnish border. Serious planning for the actual Operation Pike only began after the Winter War and was set to proceed in May but was aborted due to Fall Gelb. Unlike Sweden and Norway, Turkey and Iran, had given permission for over flights of their territory to bomb Baku, so there were no political impediments to Operation Pike.
The Soviets had war gamed offensives into Turkey and Iran in response to Operation Pike. Given the poor performance of the Iranian army during the Anglo Soviet invasion Iran would have been a push over for the Soviets. Turkey had similar terrain and was as poorly equipped as Iran. A Soviet offensive should have been successful in Turkey as well. The Soviets could have conceivably reached the Suez if Vichy and Italy cooperated.
If the Allies bombed Baku in early April 1940 how would a Soviet war in the Middle East have played out assuming Churchill becomes priminister, sticks to his guns, and doesn't compromise with Hitler or Stalin. Would the Soviets still get lend lease from the Americans if Germany invades the Soviet Union the next year?