Operation Pike goes ahead - USSR oil production totally wrecked

[ivanotter]

Wiki says:

Operation Pike was the code-name for a strategic bombing plan, overseen by Air Commodore John Slessor, against the Soviet Union by the Anglo-French alliance. British military planning against the Soviet Union occurred during the first two years of the Second World War, when, despite Soviet neutrality, the British and French came to the conclusion that the Nazi–Soviet pact made Moscow an accomplice of Hitler. The plan was designed to destroy the Soviet oil industry, to cause the collapse of the Soviet economy and deprive Nazi Germany of Soviet resources.

According to the report by General Gamelin submitted to the French Prime Minister on 22 February 1940, an oil shortage would cripple the Red Army and Soviet Air Force, as well as Soviet collective farm machinery, causing possible widespread famine and even the collapse of the Soviet Union

The earliest start date of the bombing campaign would have been March 1940. Knowing full well it is difficult to destroy an oil field, we need to acknowledge the following: "The French diplomat René Massigli, in a report to Paris, noted that American oil engineers observed "as a result of the manner in which the oil fields have been exploited, the earth is so saturated with oil that fire could spread immediately to the entire neighboring region; it would be months before it could be extinguished and years before work could be resumed again"

Here is then the case: The destruction starts in March 1940 and the region's oil output is drastically reduced (let us say reduced with 80%).

Germany invades France as OTL in May 1940.

Impossible scenarios:

Stalin has declared war on UK: So Germany and USSR are fighting the same enemy in 1940?

 

[ivanotter]

Opps - sorry - too fast- let us continue. sorry

Germany attacks USSR in 1940: Not something great. it will be a winter war, but if USSR cannot transport anything and famine is looming?

US reaction to destroying USSR oil production? This is hard to predict

Barbarossa goes in by May 1941: This is the big one. Will USSR be defeated? suing for peace

Famine cripples anything in USSR: Is this the most likely outcome? If so. Do we see another revolution in USSR?

Anyone?

 

[trash80]

I could see Germany not attacking in May as they would be bewildered as to WTF was happening plus it wouldn't be good for Nazi paranoia.

 

[Veiovis]

The problem here is that the scenario is based on extremly flawed predictions, namely those by the allied governments.
In actual reality the allied airforces ( and all others,to be fair) at the time hilariously overestimated their own effectivness, while dramatically underestimating both their own and enemy resilience against attack. This is a time where massive effort bomber raids into germany, with significant losses, managed to kill one farmer and a couple sheep and were called a success for that. So not only were the entirety of the bomber force at the time largely impotent, they actually only assigned a small fraction of their strength to the operation, and the realities of it (lack of airfields, fanciful ideas to use bases in turkey) mean that even those fraction was uncertain to actually be usable.

In short, if the operation had gone ahead,being a minor nuissance to the Soviets would have been a best case scenario. This will strongly influence the Soviets reaction to it.

 

[ivanotter]

Yes, At the time it was great if a bomber actually hit the right country, let alone the target.

However, if we could assume that they actually managed? Just for a moment at least.

 

[Veiovis]

Yes, At the time it was great if a bomber actually hit the right country, let alone the target.
However, if we could assume that they actually managed? Just for a moment at least.

But this is the post 1900 board, which requieres historical plausibility for its thread. Even if we waived that, we wouldn't really discuss anything like real history anymore. Who the hell knows how the countries will react when bombers suddenly get a 100000% percent efficiency upgrade (and less then a hundred 1940 bombers crippling a natipn like the USSR is, in all honesty, a bigger upgrade then that).
All countries in the world might immidiatly conclude MAD has been achieved and turtle up, making peace to avoid total destruction of humanity. Voila, world peace achieved!

You might want to post a similar scenario in ASB though. This gives you more freedom to tailor the scenario you wish discussed.

 

[Ian_W]

Yes, At the time it was great if a bomber actually hit the right country, let alone the target.

However, if we could assume that they actually managed? Just for a moment at least.

First, how abut you tell us

1. What planes were used,

2. From which air bases,

3. How those air bases were prepared to take those planes,

4. What payloads the aircraft carried, and

5. Why this 1940 operation, done on a shoestring off inadequate airfields that were unprepared for the operation was able to achieve results that the American attacks on Ploesti could not.

 

[marathag]

Yes, At the time it was great if a bomber actually hit the right country, let alone the target.

However, if we could assume that they actually managed? Just for a moment at least.

Here's a year 2000 photo.

That's Oil, not Water. Things hardly changed even after the Soviets were done

For finding it, it kind of sticks out into the Caspian Sea

And is lit with flare pipes burning off Natural Gas in WWII.
It was a dangerous byproduct, few were piping that gas at the time

But Baku, a big player, isn't the only one.
Next is Grozny, off to the NW

Last the Kazakhstan fields, that the Soviets were just starting to develop

 

[marathag]

achieve results that the American attacks on Ploesti could not.

Ploesti isn't Baku.
One is very hard to miss from the air, and the other wasn't an ecological disaster area from 60 years of spilled crude

 

[MFP4073]

How much oil was Germany getting from the USSR during 1940-41? I do not have sources (would love to see some data) but, depending on the amount, this might preclude Barbarossa from happening at all.

 

[Zheng He]

I would say the UK and France are now at war with the USSR. Not sure what happens next but this is a serious move on their part.

 

[thaddeus]

How much oil was Germany getting from the USSR during 1940-41? I do not have sources (would love to see some data) but, depending on the amount, this might preclude Barbarossa from happening at all.

they have had decades of huge production by 1940, there would be tens of millions of barrels in the downstream system, and millions of barrels of ongoing production not disrupted. IIRC in total they sent approx. 7m barrels to Nazi regime, and would almost certainly continue, the easiest way to strike at the Allies furnish Germany the fuel to do it?

I would say the UK and France are now at war with the USSR. Not sure what happens next but this is a serious move on their part.

think they would try to push their borders out from Baku area, so an invasion of Iran considered?

 

[donanton]

1. Oil output would not be reduced by such a huge number. A few hundred bombers on a single mission is nothing for all effects and purposes. There will be damage and production at best may suffer a 15% reduction.

2. Soviets just got themselves dragged into war against Allies alongside the Axis powers. There’s probably be negotiated deals with Hitler and Stalin to transfer Red Airforce to France and jointly bomb Britain following the fall of France. It would probably include better deals for oil for Germany possibly butterflying away their war against Soviets.

3. America turns its nose in disgust at Britain and France and retires deeper into neutrality possibly not enacting or canceling various programs like lend lease. Until Japan attacks. Unless Japan is convinced with Soviet oil to strike south and take the colonies. Soviet, Japanese and German navy could inflict severe losses of British fleet.

 

[Dolan]

Nazis and Soviets would be turned into Frenemies as Soviet invaded Turkey and Middle East (where British-French bombers were based), while Nazis could concentrate to fight on Westerb theatre while pending the War against Soviet Union "for the next century".

USA ended up disgusted with Britain and stopped any help.

Japan wisely avoid outright attacking America, merely the European colonies of Southeast Asia.

With Britain in the verge of defeat, Bose declare Indian Independence, allied himself with Japan, Nazis, and Soviets.

Everything crumble down for Britain, Churchill ended up sacked and next government sues for Peace with Nazi Germany.

Result:
* Nazi-dominated Western Europe sans British Isles.
* Italy-dominated North Africa
* Soviet-dominated Middle East and Asia Minor
* Japan-dominated East Asia.
* India being an independent power hostile to Western Allies.

...

Then the five victors of The Second World War decided to create their own crapsack version of United Nations, with Germany, Italy, Soviet Union, Japan, and India as permanent Security Council members.

...

Cue 200 years from that and suddenly, Terran Empire *Star Trek Terran Empire Theme playing in the Background*

 

[ivanotter]

I do admit that totally wrecking the USSR oil production would be a stretch.

Just the fact that France/UK starting to bomb USSR oil fields and refineries would probably get Stalin to seriously look at any alliance with such 'friends'

As 80%+ of USSR oil came from the Baku etc region, any major disturbance would be felt. Germany did not import a lot from USSR. Their oil came from Ploesti.

If Missigli is correct that the ground is so saturated with oil that a fire anywhere can wreck a fair amount of production, then it is also reasonable to assume that even a 3-month-long campaign can damage production. How much is a reasonable number.

Based on the above photo it is clear that this is a possibility.

Looking at Wiki for a snapshot, the campaign was intended as three month, dropping some 1,000 tons:

"
Analysis of the photography by the PDU revealed that the oil infrastructure in Baku and Batum were particularly vulnerable to air attack, as both could be approached from the sea, so the more difficult target of Grozny would be bombed first to exploit the element of surprise. Oil fields were to be attacked with incendiary bombs, while tests conducted at the Royal Arsenal at Woolwich revealed that light oil storage tanks at the oil processing plants could be detonated with high explosives.

As of 1 April, four squadrons comprising 48 Bristol Blenheim Mk IV bombers were transferred to the Middle East Command, supplemented with a number of single-engined Wellesley bombers for night missions. A French force of 65 Martin Maryland bombers and a supplementary force of 24 Farman F.222 heavy bombers were allocated for night operations during the campaign. The French were preparing new air fields in Syria which were expected to be ready by 15 May. The campaign was expected to last three months and over 1,000 short tons (910 t) of bombs were allocated to the operation: 404 × 500 lb (230 kg) semi-armour-piercing bombs, 554 × 500 lb (230 kg) and 5,188 × 250 lb (110 kg) general-purpose bombs and 69,192 × 4 lb (1.8 kg) incendiary bombs.
""""""

In any event, let us reduce the amount of destruction that can be achieved (although sitting in the middle of THAT oilfield with some 70,000 incendiary bombs coming down could make the premium on my life insurance to be increased!).

The US reaction is probably key. Wil US be so disgusted with a totally unprovoked attack on USSR that they will back out of Europe - and especially be less than happy with Churchill?

If this is now combined with the OTL fall of France and later the UK bombardment of the French fleet, US may think that Churchill is too much of a 'Maverick' to be trusted.

If this is then the case, LL (to UK) goes out the window - as mentioned.

If Barbarossa comes around as OTL, will US be interested in LL to USSR?

Will WWII end up in three distinct areas:
- Pacific+ Burma (Japan vs US)
- USSR vs Germany
- Germany vs UK

USSR and UK combined invaded Iran. I cannot see that USSR would like to do that together with the UK in this. Can USSR invade Iran on its own? It must be linked to the missing oil from Baku and surroundings.

It might lead to another clash: USSR vs UK. UK might regard the oil from Iran (and Iraq) as too precious to leave to USSR.

If Uk is active in fighting USSR in the south, it can only benefit Germany.

IF the German goal in the south was (anyway) to disrupt the oil production (and not necessarily to capture it - it still takes time to get back in full swing) then they could focus more on Moscow and Leningrad. Letting UK fight USSR would be a bonus.

On the other hand, it could just be that Churchill and Stalin find each other. Let bygone be bygone and turn on Germany together. How far that will last is a good guess.