Operation Konrad

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Deleted member 1487

Inspired by the Battle of the Bulge thread below, I began thinking about how the forces used in Wacht am Rhein could have been better used on the Western Front.

Here was my post on that thread:
I'd say forget the Western Battle of the Bulge; I'd rather see an Eastern version TL and be interested about how that could go. Imagine an earlier Fruehlingserwachen:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operati...hlingserwachen
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_bulge
But with the forces that were at the Bulge+whatever the local reserves are. Blow the Rhine bridges early and more effectively while keeping your troops ready to go in the East where they could make somewhat of a difference.

German strength from both offensives:
Wacht am Rhein (Bulge)
500,000 men[1]
500 medium & heavy tanks,
1,900 artillery guns and Nebelwerfers

Fruehlingserwachen (Spring Awakening)
140,000
900 AFVs

So something around 640,000 men (at least. We don't know how many men extra might have been available in '44 in the East that were gone by '45 for the historical Spring Awakening), 1,400 Panzers, and 1,900 artillery pieces. Hefty offensive. Combine that with whatever else is lying around and one could have +1 million men, 2,000 Panzers, 2-3,000 guns, and, if Bodenplatte never happens in the West:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unternehmen_Bodenplatte
About 1,035 aircraft, including 929 fighters and fighter bombers.

Even for the Eastern Front that is a heafy some of forces that might be able to make a signficant dent in the Russians. Obviously not enough to change the ending of the war, but perhaps enough to save some civilians and hurt the Russians pretty bad. Not only that, but Berlin might even hold out longer, creating all kinds of butterflies.


Basically, I am suggesting that Hitler sees some sort of reason and the Western Front is abandoned up to the Rhein with the bridges blown (all of them) and whatever forces that could be saved were. So this means that about half a million men are available for operations in the East, as are the fighters/bombers from Bodenplatte.

The siege of Budapest had started in December right around the same time as Wacht am Rhein, meaning it is likely the forces horded for that offensive would be used to relieve the city:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Budapest
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Konrad

Would these extra forces have made a difference? The major problem with the relief offensive was the lack of food and supply, which the addition of half a million men would exacerbate. However, with an inactive Western front, there is a strong possibility that supplies would be made available for the offensive.

In that case, there is a good chance the southern front could be salvaged for a little while longer. And the lake Balton oil might be staying German for a while.
 

Deleted member 1487

Really, nothing?

Well, if the Germans could knock out a couple hundred thousand Soviets soldiers with a surprise offensive plus massive air support as listed above, which given the quality of their opponents and the large number of tank hunting aircraft, I think it is doable. I doubt Hitler would be willing to abandon the "fortress Budapest" which would tie the hands of the army commanders, but holding the front for several months would give the chance to pull troops out of the Balkans and save some lives, not to mention give a chance to prepare defenses in Austria. Shorten the line and try to hold on.

I think that without the German offensive in the West, it is likely that a forced crossing of the Rhein, even if resisted, is going to happen no later than March. Does this give the Germans some time to cover up the evidence of the Holocaust? They were trying to OTL and with the explicit knowledge that the West was not going to be held, I think there is a chance that camp commandants were going to wrap things up if they could, hoping to avoid punishment.

In the meantime, this gives the Germans a short breather to throw everything against the Russians-I'm mainly thinking about supplies, as I'd imagine that troops are still readied on the Rhein. Though the end is not in doubt by this point, the Russians could still get a bloodied nose and be delayed in taking on Berlin. This in turn causes Stalin to urge harder for results causing clumsy and bloody mistakes at the front-kind of like Seeloewe Heights. Does this allow for the Western Allies to reach farther into Germany first? Though it is understood on this board that the Soviets were still going to get their occupation zone, do civilians get spared some of the worst by the Germans holding the line longer and getting to the Western zones or did most just stay put?

What does this mean post war for the allies? By December '44 it should be obvious that the Westerners are not being resisted and the Russians are catching just about everything. Does this increase bitterness and cause an earlier split? How do the Americans characterize the war without the Bulge? Do the Russians get greater billing in American history books, or is D-day made that much more important?
 
Th4e Allies liberate more of the Russian Zone including POW camps. ?Does the larger number Russian POWs in allied Hand s affect the shameful return of the Unwilling returnees?.
 

Deleted member 1487

It didn't OTL. I would hope that the larger numbers would mean yes, but the Western Allied commanders found ways to force their soldiers to do it, despite the threats of mutiny (I have read ancedotally from British soldiers).
 
Didn't the Soviets use Spring Awakening to their adavantage in OTL?

At this point the Red Air Force dominates the skies crushing any alarming German advance in it's infancy.

Also the offensive was partially "successful" originally due to the Soviets being caught in disbelief at such an absurd move quite like in the Ardennes here they will see this coming from miles away.
 

Deleted member 1487

Didn't the Soviets use Spring Awakening to their adavantage in OTL?

At this point the Red Air Force dominates the skies crushing any alarming German advance in it's infancy.

Also the offensive was partially "successful" originally due to the Soviets being caught in disbelief at such an absurd move quite like in the Ardennes here they will see this coming from miles away.

Spring Awakening happened in March with the same forces that tried to relieve Budapest 3 times already in January, but slightly reinforced with new Panzers. The OTL operation Konrad was only stopped by supply concerns, and went on during the same time as Wacht am Rhein. But if it is the only front during the time period and the Western front quiets down until January due to the German pull back, supply could be provided to sustain Op. Konrad ITTL. Plus the historical offensive managed to ripe a hole 20 km wide in the Russian line.

Not to mention that the aircraft and pilots held in reserve for Bodenplatte are being thrust into the offensive, which would give them about 1,000 aircraft in the area, something I highly doubt the Soviets would expect/be able to counter, as it would include the best surviving pilots that the Germans had, including Galland. Even at this point in the war, the Soviet pilots had a hard time standing up to the massively outnumbered Luftwaffe and as a result did not have the same air supremacy as the Western Allies.

Plus, if most of the fighters survived, which, given the Soviet record against the LW there is a much better chance than they historically had, they could be used again on the northern front, but probably would experience more resistance there, as this was the Soviet main thrust. Still a more profitable use of the LW than against the Western Allies.
 
What may have happened is that FDR may have come to his conclusion earlier that Stalin was not to be trusted. In the last 6 months of his life FDR wanted changes in the occupation zone and wanted a smaller role for Russia. It also seemed that the President had questions about Poland and Russian occupation of the East. Perhaps a German offensive in the east might have altered the Post war world.
 
The original Konrad fell flat on it's face due to supply problems how does more troops make that better?
 

Deleted member 1487

The original Konrad fell flat on it's face due to supply problems how does more troops make that better?


Being the major offensive during this period, it is given the full support of German logistics, when OTL it was a side show. It is possible that by holding the Hungarian plains and reestablishing positions in the mountains in Translyvania, the Balkan front could be held longer. There is also still the possibility that the Polish front could get this attention instead, but IMHO, stabilizing the Balkan front before shifting attention to Poland makes more sense, as there are defensible borders to be reached and a definite end point that would allow for forces to be transferred to another sector. Send these forces straight to the Polish front immediately and they just get bogged down while the Balkan front collapses.
 
Being the major offensive during this period, it is given the full support of German logistics, when OTL it was a side show. It is possible that by holding the Hungarian plains and reestablishing positions in the mountains in Translyvania, the Balkan front could be held longer. There is also still the possibility that the Polish front could get this attention instead, but IMHO, stabilizing the Balkan front before shifting attention to Poland makes more sense, as there are defensible borders to be reached and a definite end point that would allow for forces to be transferred to another sector. Send these forces straight to the Polish front immediately and they just get bogged down while the Balkan front collapses.

i am sorry i confused the two operations. in the thread i did about spring awakening i meant operation solstice.
 
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