Operation FS: Japan's Final Strike

[BiteNibbleChomp]

BTW, aside from Yamamoto's four carriers, what other IJN carriers survive?

Seven CVLs: Hosho, Ryujo, Junyo, Hiyo, Unyo, Taiyo, Ryuho. Most of them are doing training stuff near Tokyo or ferrying aircraft at the moment though.

Why is Halsey dragging the two Colorados with him? That's just going to slow him down and cause the TF to separate during flight ops.

Because even though he's not expecting to get in a fight with Yamamoto, the IJN is thought to be in the area and there is some risk of an encounter. Three battleships gives him a lot more firepower than just one does, and could make the difference in the event of a battle (as well as being able to dump for lead on Efate). And faster battleships aren't in the area to be used instead.

Are any of the CVE’s pulled away from Torch to escort a slow BB task force?

No. Europe first.

- BNC

 

[BiteNibbleChomp]

XXV: Retribution, November 1942

Decisive battle had dominated the planning of FS ever since Imperial Headquarters had decided to scrap Yamamoto’s grand plan to strike at Midway. Coral Sea had been significant but not decisive. Samoa had been a disaster. New Caledonia had hurt the Americans, but a lack of fuel had once again made a proper pursuit of victory impossible. By striking Efate, the Americans had provided the admiral with another chance. No tropical storms had yet appeared, but the season was beginning: this would surely be his last chance before the end of the year, and next year was too late. This was not the time for caution, and Yamamoto would not waste one second after the supplied were unloaded to abandon it. Why not? He had a week’s fuel and the entire fleet this time.
Efate had reported that most of the American aircraft, save some B-17s that surely originated from New Caledonia, had come from the waters nearly due east of the island, and a submarine had reported a sighting of an enemy destroyer somewhere southwest of Fiji the day before. Between those two pieces of intelligence, Yamamoto was confident he would find the American fleet. The raid had been too damaging to be the result of just one carrier – Tokyo had lost track of how many carriers the Combined Fleet had sunk by now, but that raid had surely been the work of most of what was left, and Yamamoto wanted to finish them off. Efate was in no position to launch aircraft, but Fiji was ordered to put scout planes in the air. His enemy was there for the taking, and he would take them.
His plan was to strike his opponent – reports were suggesting it was Halsey, who had bombed Tokyo last April before mysteriously vanishing – from the south, setting a trap for the US Navy. West of his position were the New Hebrides, east was Fiji and north would only take him further into Japanese controlled waters, where submarines were now being sent. Leaving the small carrier Zuiho to escort the transport ships back from Thio, the Imperial Navy had three carriers: Hiryu, Akagi and Shokaku, every one of them a veteran of a past battle in the South Pacific. They were supported by five battleships – Yamato, Nagato, Mutsu, Hiei and Kongo, four heavy cruisers, two light cruisers and twenty-one destroyers.

Fletcher’s intelligence team had noticed the massive fleet leave port days earlier, and had been wholly convinced that his opponent’s target was Noumea: such a plan had been attempted once before, and the Japanese could not have missed the crowd of ships that had been waiting outside the port three weeks earlier. Those ships were no longer there, but if the Japanese still believed them to be – Noumea’s overcrowding had been an issue for several months – then they were an obvious target if the Japanese intended to take over New Caledonia. Instead, the Japanese would find next to nothing near Noumea: Halsey and the fleet were readying a strike against Espiritu Santo. When a Catalina found that the Japanese fleet had instead turned northeast the next morning, Halsey was ordered to prepare for battle.
An hour later, the first of Yamamoto’s bombers, armed with both bombs and torpedoes, arrived from the south west. Under orders to destroy carriers first and battleships second, they dived on the first enemy carrier they located. The Enterprise, heavily damaged in the last battle and only given a quick round of repairs since, stood no chance against the Japanese aerial assault. Wildcats launched by the carrier just minutes before the Japanese arrived shot down no fewer than eight enemy aircraft, only for one plane, which had lost its engines but still carried its bombs, to be turned into a piloted weapon. That crew, willing to sacrifice themselves on the Emperor’s behalf, rammed the bomber into the middle of Enterprise’s flight deck before their plane exploded into a huge fireball. Halsey, injured by the blast, was forced to transfer his flag to the Wasp as the Enterprise burned and sank.
Their carrier destroyed, Enterprise’s strike wave joined another wave from Wasp to seek and destroy the Japanese carriers that had caused this disaster. The morning’s report had located Yamamoto’s fleet between the islands of Efate and Erromango, heading east, although by the time the Americans reached his carriers they were a good sixty kilometres of their last known position. Thirty Zeroes, every one of them piloted by a veteran of Pearl Harbour, were waiting, and when the Americans came, a ferocious battle erupted thousands of feet above the Akagi. Some SBDs and newer TBF ‘Avenger’s managed to break out of the dogfight and attacked both the Akagi and nearby Hiryu, but many more were shot down without a chance to attack the Japanese carriers themselves. Enterprise’s surviving aircraft were ordered to fly to New Caledonia, while Wasp readied a second strike. Yamamoto’s carriers were all still serviceable, although they would need some time in the repair yard in the near future. The entire fleet was long overdue for a trip to Tokyo, but first the South Pacific campaign had to be finished.

As he prepared his own second strike, Yamamoto turned his fleet to the northeast. The decisive battle would not be complete until the entire US fleet was destroyed, and the best way to ensure that they could not escape was by blocking every path out. The closest Allied bases were New Caledonia and Tongatabu: if Halsey wanted to retreat, it was very likely that he would turn south. Indeed, a scout plane reported two hours after Enterprise’s sinking that the Americans were doing just that. And when they did, the long-awaited battleship duel could begin.
Halsey’s air strength had been greatly weakened, with fighters based at Noumea now being called to defend the Wasp against the next Japanese attack. Bombers were launched as quickly as they could be reloaded and refuelled, in a desperate attempt to get the planes off the carrier before the Japanese had another chance to sink it: three carriers against one did not make for good odds, and the safety of Tongatabu was a long way away.
While the fighters would stay and fight for Wasp, using the bombers against Hiryu and Akagi was almost sure to be a doomed effort – the squadrons were only a little over half strength, while Japan’s combat air patrols were clearly being conducted with elite pilots. Instead, Halsey and Fletcher, who was now actively commanding the squadrons on New Caledonia, decided to strike at Zuiho and the transport fleet. Absent a miraculous stroke of luck, a dozen or so bombers would never be able to sink all three large carriers, but the Americans believed it may be possible to draw Yamamoto away from a battle that he was about to win. Zuiho, escorting a large group of slow transports, was only travelling at around 11 knots, and could only hold around thirty aircraft, some of which were surely bombers. Next to New Caledonia’s rapidly-growing air forces, she was a sitting duck. Only two bomb hits were needed to destroy her.
Yamamoto was undeterred. Zuiho was a small price to pay for what he believed to be the rest of the US Pacific Fleet, although the large tanker and three cargo ships that were reported destroyed ten minutes later was certainly a significant blow. With the supplies at Efate destroyed, there was no longer any point to even attempting another supply run to Thio, and the surviving transport fleet and its escorts were ordered directly back to Rabaul: dusk was sure to arrive before the Americans could finish them off. FS, ever since Coral Sea, had been about the fleet, not the islands. And the fleet was about to win a great victory...

- BNC

 

[VanOwen]

When you need to run, you had better be able to run. The two old BBs are going to be an anchor to the rest of the fleet.

 

[Talwar]

Ruh roh.

 

[generalurist]

Ouch, and it's only going to get more hurty. Really though, the American war machine is already ramped up, a loss here can never be more than a large speed bump.

Yamamoto: Great news, I won the Decisive Battle^TM!
Imperial Headquarters: Excellent news! Wait, why aren't the Australians surrendering? wait whats going on why are all our transports exploding?
Yamamoto: Oh god there are submarines everywhere dammnit build those kaibókan faster!
Americans:Just wait you little....
[six months later]
Americans: Check out my five new Essex-classes! [I wonder what butterflies TTL have will have for american shipbuilding?]
Yamamoto: Wait what where did those carriers come from AAAAAAUUUUURRRRHHHggggg

Either way, given the Japanese fuel situation I expect this really will be Japan's "final strike".

By the way, what is Japan's aircrew situation? After all this, how many of their veteran pilots remain?

okyo had lost track of how many carriers the Combined Fleet had sunk by now

Aside from Enterprise and Saratoga, how many false sinkings have been reported to Tokyo?

Some SBDs and newer TBF ‘Avenger’s managed to break out of the dogfight and attacked both the Akagi and nearby Hiryu, but many more were shot down without a chance to attack the Japanese carriers themselves. Enterprise’s surviving aircraft were ordered to fly to New Caledonia, while Wasp readied a second strike. Yamamoto’s carriers were all still serviceable, although they would need some time in the repair yard in the near future. The entire fleet was long overdue for a trip to Tokyo, but first the South Pacific campaign had to be finished.

Bloody but futile. What sort of damage did Akagi and Hiryu end up taking?

Zuiho, escorting a large group of slow transports, was only travelling at around 11 knots, and could only hold around thirty aircraft, some of which were surely bombers. Next to New Caledonia’s rapidly-growing air forces, she was a sitting duck. Only two bomb hits were needed to destroy her.

Ouch, but couldn't expect much else. Fletcher had the right call, and it fits with America's overall 'indirect approach' strategy. How much of the convoy ultimately got through?

 

[BiteNibbleChomp]

Yamamoto: Great news, I won the Decisive Battle^TM!
Imperial Headquarters: Excellent news! Wait, why aren't the Australians surrendering? wait whats going on why are all our transports exploding?
Yamamoto: Oh god there are submarines everywhere dammnit build those kaibókan faster!
Americans:Just wait you little....
[six months later]
Americans: Check out my five new Essex-classes! [I wonder what butterflies TTL have will have for american shipbuilding?]
Yamamoto: Wait what where did those carriers come from AAAAAAUUUUURRRRHHHggggg

That pretty much sums up the next dozen or so updates. Am I still needed here?

By the way, what is Japan's aircrew situation? After all this, how many of their veteran pilots remain?

About half of what they started with. A little better than before OTL Santa Cruz.

Aside from Enterprise and Saratoga, how many false sinkings have been reported to Tokyo?

At the very least, they thought they got one after Doolittle (because of a submarine), and I think I mentioned another one at some point. I lost track too, so I think it fits that the Japanese High Command did as well.

Bloody but futile. What sort of damage did Akagi and Hiryu end up taking?

Nothing critical, a few weeks in the repair yard to get them back to 100%.

Ouch, but couldn't expect much else. Fletcher had the right call, and it fits with America's overall 'indirect approach' strategy. How much of the convoy ultimately got through?

A dozen or so transports, not really enough to keep New Caledonia going but not so bad for Japan to just give up on the effort yet.

- BNC

 

[generalurist]

That pretty much sums up the next dozen or so updates. Am I still needed here?

My 1337 hyper-awareness has been noted before.

But seriously, I hope you don't feel bad that some of your readers are able to predict future military maneuvers. As with any other story, people enjoy guessing what will happen next. With stuff like short-term military strategy, there are only so many ways it can develop and this is a forum filled with people who read about that stuff for fun. And plus, you've shown yourself to be very knowledgeable about the forces present in this theater of war, and are crafting a delicious and well-detailed narrative. (Really though, I'm curious what sources you use for the details of the story).

Nothing critical, a few weeks in the repair yard to get them back to 100%.

Flight decks still usable? I don't really know that much about carriers, and I would figure that since the flight deck is the entire top of a ship it would be hard for a bomb not to ruin an unarmored one. Or do they just punch straight through and explode below it?

 

[Pax Americana]

I imagine this will be the Sinking of the Glorious on steroids, no? And this will be why the Aircraft carrier with the battleship gun would have been considered so effective, as it could fight here.

 

[BiteNibbleChomp]

But seriously, I hope you don't feel bad that some of your readers are able to predict future military maneuvers.

Nah, I just thought that write-up was hilarious . I've already written the next three chapters anyway, so it would be a waste not to post them (I give a couple of days before posting them in case I think of some edits or random stuff worth including - keep predicting stuff, it might give me ideas )

(Really though, I'm curious what sources you use for the details of the story)

I posted one list a while back:

A few sources I've found very useful include:
https://pwencycl.kgbudge.com/Table_Of_Contents.htm - has a huge amount of detail about pretty much everything that happened in the Pacific
https://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USN/Building_Bases/bases-24.html - covers the various Allied defences on most of the islands.
https://www.academia.edu/8041840/TH...BATTLE_THAT_REQUIRED_EVERY_CONCEIVABLE_WEAPON - this is about the Tokyo Express (DD supply runs to Guadalcanal), rather than FS, but I found it very helpful when working out the Japanese supply situation.
http://nzetc.victoria.ac.nz/tm/scholarly/tei-WH2Paci.html - NZ's official histories, Chapter 2 covers the Fiji garrison in great detail.
http://www.combinedfleet.com/guadoil1.htm - this is how I obtained the 200-300kt figure for MI

Also the book Japanese Army Operations in the South Pacific Area: New Britain and Papua campaigns 1942-43, translated by Steven Bullard has a chapter devoted to the Japanese planning of FS, probably the most useful source I have found for the topic. Can be downloaded for free from the Australian War Memorial page here: http://ajrp.awm.gov.au/AJRP/AJRP2.n...6f4f00126373/1fcb61d633972daaca257291000abf44

Add to that:
https://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USMC/I/USMC-I-II-3.html - stuff about Samoa
http://www.182ndinfantry.org/defending-new-caledonia-1942/ - stuff about New Caledonia
And about a billion searches on Wikipedia and other sites. I lost track of all the sites a long time ago.

Flight decks still usable? I don't really know that much about carriers, and I would figure that since the flight deck is the entire top of a ship it would be hard for a bomb not to ruin an unarmored one. Or do they just punch straight through and explode below it?

There's always the possibility of a near-miss causing damage, or hitting near the edge of the flight deck so that only a part of it is destroyed (provided fires are put out quickly enough). Or using those awful torpedoes that only work 15% of the time.

I imagine this will be the Sinking of the Glorious on steroids, no?

What you've seen so far is like Santa Cruz, but going very badly for the Americans.

- BNC

 

[kent]

So Yamamoto is still rolling 7's and the Americans are rolling snake eyes.

 

[BiteNibbleChomp]

XXVI: Guns in the South, November 1942

Halsey’s flag was only on the Wasp for a matter of hours before the warning sirens rang out. He had been lured into a trap, albeit one that had not been planned long in advance by an opponent that continued to surprise him. With New Caledonia busy, and the fleet too far from Tongatabu for any immediate assistance, Halsey had only one choice: to break out to the east. The carrier a certain target and the battleships sure to follow, he transferred his flag to the destroyer Barton. In a battlefield where large ships were being struck every hour, a destroyer would be easily overlooked.
Wasp’s destruction was swift and bloody. Two thirds of Yamamoto’s enormous bomber force descended upon the carrier, scoring sixteen confirmed hits and possibly many more uncounted. Damage control efforts were brave but futile, and only the Pacific Ocean could put out the many blazes that broke out across the ship. Fighters, coming from Wasp and from New Caledonia, shot down another fifteen Japanese aircraft, but lost nearly as many of their own as the rest of Yamamoto’s aircraft dove on the battleship Maryland, disabling one of her gun turrets and causing other minor damage.
Unlike the past battles at Samoa and New Caledonia, the coming of dusk did not mean the end of the fight. Yamamoto sent a message to Tokyo announcing the final defeat of the American carriers, but the decisive battle would not be finished until the battleships were sunk as well. He continued his course slightly north of east, both in an effort to draw Halsey into a surface battle and, perhaps more importantly, to get his fleet out of range of New Caledonia before Fletcher could have another chance at his own carriers. Halsey, whose fleet was by now quite disorganised, was also heading east, his only goal being to escape to Tongatabu with whatever was left. The Japanese had pulled back after every past carrier engagement, and this time they had a more convincing victory than most. Once there, the South Pacific Fleet would be joined by the Hornet and preparations for the next fight could be made.

Instead of an American escape and a Japanese withdrawal, the two fleets met around 0200, nearly five hundred kilometres east of where the morning’s battle had begun. Although the encounter was a matter of chance, Yamamoto had ensured that his navy was prepared for a surface battle: the carriers and their escorts were a safe distance away to the southwest, with orders to rejoin the fleet only when dawn approached (at which point another wave of air strikes was planned), while the five battleships formed a line running from west to east, with the Yamato taking pride of place in the centre.
25 kilometres to the north, Halsey was shaken awake by the sounds of the fourteen-inch guns of Kongo and Hiei firing first in the general direction of the Americans, and then the Colorado once that battleship’s location had been more accurately identified. Colorado’s fire was directed towards the Hiei, the closer of the two enemy battleships, but a lack of specific night-battle training put the American gunnery crews at a disadvantage compared to their Japanese counterparts. Despite this, it was Colorado that scored the first kill of the night action, with some well-aimed shells striking Hiei and causing the magazines to explode.
Yamato’s massive guns soon took the place of the sinking Hiei, and nine minutes after Hiei was destroyed, the Colorado too suffered a series of critical hits after a failed attempt to sink the Hiei’s sister ship Kongo. Yamamoto turned his attention to the Maryland, which had begun engaging Nagato in another duel, and gave orders for Mutsu to finish off the damaged veteran of Pearl Harbour. In the resulting clash, Maryland damaged Nagato, which would need months of repairs back in the Home Islands, but proved unable to overcome the tremendous weight of fire being directed towards her, and the South Pacific soon claimed its third battleship.

Halsey’s priority remained escape. The Japanese Navy had pushed his own forces north of their original course towards Tongatabu, although they were continuing east as much as could be done while avoiding the fury of Yamamoto’s battle line. Yamamoto had not yet found the South Dakota, Halsey’s last battleship, although he undoubtedly knew it was in the area. Now it would provide the US Navy’s best chance of getting out of this disastrous encounter.
With Tongatabu no longer viable, Halsey ordered his entire fleet to set a course due north, with the intention of taking a long circular route around Fiji before arriving in Samoa, far enough away from the Japanese to be considered relatively safe. At the same time, Halsey asked Fletcher to order a series of airstrikes against Fiji from Tongatabu, which would distract if not destroy any Japanese reconnaissance efforts based out of Viti Levu’s two airfields. Yamamoto’s carriers would remain a dangerous threat, but a rain squall was developing in the area that would hamper search efforts.
While Halsey’s fleet turned north, Yamamoto concentrated his attention on ships that had already been located, principally the heavy cruisers Chicago and Astoria, which were attacked by a group of Japanese destroyers and then Mutsu. Chicago can be credited with the sinking of two Japanese destroyers, Amagiri and Nowaki, before both American cruisers joined the growing collection of ships on the South Pacific’s floor. The battle they fought distracted the Japanese battleships long enough to allow the rest of the US fleet to escape.
With dawn came the greatest Japanese victory since Pearl Harbour. Yamamoto ordered all of his carriers to begin searching for any surviving US ships, only to have these efforts interrupted by a storm. Only when a submarine north of Fiji located the scattered survivors did he find out he had missed the last battleship in the massive battle. That submarine, the I-158, attempted to finish the job by shooting off two torpedoes aimed at South Dakota. One missed entirely, while the other instead struck the destroyer Barton, sinking it almost immediately. It would take Admiral Halsey down with it, burying him in the graveyard occupied by so many of his ships.

- BNC

 

[Mr Director]

Looks like Japan got in one last win. I wonder if the war will still end on schedule in 1945. Presumably nukes will still start dropping on schedule, but with Tokyo getting the confidence boost of winning their "decisive battle" and the Japanese maybe getting some more breathing room before getting squished, might they still drag the war on into 1946 or 1947, perhaps even forcing an Operation Downfall during that time?

 

[shadow]

I wander what effect this battle will have on US shipbuilding.

 

[generalurist]

Big oof. Looks like Japan got their NIGHT BATTLE plans to work in TTL. How many 'kills' did Yamato score?

With Japan's fuel situation in the shitter and most of America's carriers being dead, I imagine that the naval theater is going quiet for the winter, at least once New Caledonia is sorted out... aside from the Many American convoy raiders wreaking havoc. At least the Japanese will have a few months to practice their ASW before the Essexes comes on-line.

I suspect this battle is one of but not the only engagements that lead to people thinking the cancelled-in-TTL BB/CV hybrid conversions had real potential. There is no chance of the conversions being ready in time for New Caledonia, but this battle has shown that early in the carrier age it is still possible for surface fleets to get into gun range if enemy carrier support is wrecked, and that the battleboats can fight in time/conditions that the CVs can't without having to worry about attrition of air crews. Of course, as carriers get better this will be less true. But I'll predict that lesson will not be learnt before late 1943, when the conversions would have been ready.

Speaking of shipbuilding, how concerned is HQ about Japan's losses? The Taiho and Unryú were still being built, are there others I forgot?

Looks like Japan got in one last win. I wonder if the war will still end on schedule in 1945. Presumably nukes will still start dropping on schedule, but with Tokyo getting the confidence boost of winning their "decisive battle" and the Japanese maybe getting some more breathing room before getting squished, might they still drag the war on into 1946 or 1947, perhaps even forcing an Operation Downfall during that time?

I'd be interested to read this if anyone remembers what it was!

Finally found that TL I mentioned. The author estimates that in the utter best case scenario for Japan "the first atomic bomb is used tactically on Okinawa." I don't imagine the confidence boost from the Decisive Battle on its own will cause them to fight on, the inevitable string of defeats and counterattacks in '44 will erode that for sure. Makes one wonder though when America will truly begin to counterattack.

What you've seen so far is like Santa Cruz, but going very badly for the Americans.

On that note, let's update our notes:

Going through the list:
Langley - sunk at Java
Lexington - sunk at Coral Sea
Saratoga - wrecked, back in action 43
Ranger - doing something in the Atlantic
Yorktown - sunk at Coral Sea
Enterprise - sunk at New caledonia
Wasp - Sunk at new caledonia
Hornet - undamaged, coming south real soon.

So America is down to one operational carrier in the Pacific theater (Which Japan doesn't know is coming maybe?) Meanwhile Japan is down I think five carriers as opposed to 6 OTL. Which isn't a greatly worse balance than OTL. -The main difference is that without Midway the Japanese losses occured as attrition during offensives rather than all at once for no gain.

The Battleships on the other hand.. aw geez! I'm not really keeping track, but I imagine they are much worse than OTL. How many do the Yanks have operational in the area beyond SoDak?

I also wonder what's going on in the head of American command. Japan just blew up a whole bunch of battleships with their only own loss a barely-counts-as-a-fast-battleships Kongó-class. What impact will this have on the Iowas, and will the montanas get built?

I wonder, is there any chance of the yanks trying to rope in British ships with so many of their own blown up?

Either way, stay tuned for more nautical nonsense on the next installment of: Japan's Final Strike!

 

[Workable Goblin]

I wander what effect this battle will have on US shipbuilding.

Well, the Montana-class battleships definitely will not be cancelled in this timeline, at least not before the end of the war. Surface battles look much more important without Midway, especially when Halsey got himself killed in one. Probably Kentucky and Illinois will not be reordered as Iowa-class battleships, either, since that followed Midway and, again, having very powerful battleships looks much more important here. CalBear's favorite ships, the Alaska-class, will probably also get more of a lease on life, since Japanese cruisers probably look like more of a possible threat than IOTL (despite many of them having been sunk).

That being said, the actual time needed to build any of them may mean that they don't see any war service anyhow, and are just partially built and scrapped after V-J day.

 

[Tannenberg]

Yamamoto: "We did, Nagano. We won the decisive battle. Just think what might happen if we didn't destroyed the American Fleet"
Nagano: "The American Fleet?"

 

[Joriz Castillo]

What's the Allies reaction to these losses? The Americans should be badly shaken by this defeat including the loss of Halsey.

 

[kvnrthr]

I'm confused about how the Americans were surprised at night. What's going on with their radar? For all the Japanese night training, the Americans tended to detect them first OTL. When engaging in battle of course things were more equal, but if the US simply wants to avoid the Japanese I see no way the Japanese could catch them at night.

Also, WHERE IS THE FIFTH AIR FORCE? I've not seen any mention of P-40s, P-38s, B-25s etc. I don't know the state of the air base at Noumea but instead of sending a risky carrier raid they should have been bleeding the Japanese air forces white, pounding Efate into rubble and skip bombing the transports.

It's an interesting timeline but I really feel that it's the US Navy vs all the Japanese forces. The army and marines have something like 2 divisions total engaged from what I can count? 1st Marine Division and 2nd Marine Division seem to have disappeared off the map, army air forces not making any contribution worth mentioning. If MacArthur isn't fighting in New Guinea, what is he even doing? Where is George Kenney?

 

[Gudestein]

Absolutely spectacular. I realize its a lot to ask, but will we see Yamato vs. The Montana?

 

[BiteNibbleChomp]

Looks like Japan got in one last win. I wonder if the war will still end on schedule in 1945. Presumably nukes will still start dropping on schedule, but with Tokyo getting the confidence boost of winning their "decisive battle" and the Japanese maybe getting some more breathing room before getting squished, might they still drag the war on into 1946 or 1947, perhaps even forcing an Operation Downfall during that time?

So far nothing has happened that can drastically alter the Central Pacific plan, and while the IJN is in better shape than OTL, it isn't that much better. Not to mention they don't have any good solution to problems like the Hellcat and Corsair, American submarines sinking everything flying the Rising Sun, or of course the nuke. So at least at this stage I still think a 1945 end is the most logical.

I wander what effect this battle will have on US shipbuilding.

What impact will this have on the Iowas, and will the montanas get built?

What's the Allies reaction to these losses? The Americans should be badly shaken by this defeat including the loss of Halsey.

At least the other two Iowas (Illinois and Kentucky) will be getting built. The Montanas however would be competing with the Essexes for shipyard space, and I'm inclined to believe that carriers would still be seen as more useful than more battleships - the USN has only lost Washington, the two Colorados in this battle and whatever is unsalvagable at Pearl Harbour, so their battleship fleet is still intact less some old ships, while the carrier fleet has been pretty much wiped out.

The battle itself is seen as a case of "we made a gamble and lost", and while the losses in terms of ships is pretty bad for the US, the "bomb Efate" mission as a whole was still somewhat successful - Efate has been rendered totally useless as a base for a good few months at least, which also means the Japanese no longer have any land-based air over New Caledonia, and the transport fleet and Zuiho were pretty well smashed up too. In the command rooms, the admirals are thinking "well we have to wait for the Essexes now", but November to March is cyclone season in that area, so major operations were probably off the cards anyway until mid-43. And seeing as the mission is Halsey's idea and he died in it, most of the blame can be pushed on to his corpse.

CalBear's favorite ships, the Alaska-class, will probably also get more of a lease on life, since Japanese cruisers probably look like more of a possible threat than IOTL (despite many of them having been sunk).

I have to do something with those ships. Haven't decided what yet.

I'm confused about how the Americans were surprised at night. What's going on with their radar? For all the Japanese night training, the Americans tended to detect them first OTL. When engaging in battle of course things were more equal, but if the US simply wants to avoid the Japanese I see no way the Japanese could catch them at night.

The fleet had been thrown into disarray by the Japanese air attacks just a few hours earlier and was still reorganising itself when Yamamoto started chasing them down (commanders getting overwhelmed with new reports never helps anyone!). And the Americans with the Colorados couldn't move as fast as Yamamoto's faster ships can. The two fleets didn't have all that much space between them to begin with (only about 250km in the morning, and Yamamoto has been trying to close in all day).

Also, WHERE IS THE FIFTH AIR FORCE? I've not seen any mention of P-40s, P-38s, B-25s etc. I don't know the state of the air base at Noumea but instead of sending a risky carrier raid they should have been bleeding the Japanese air forces white, pounding Efate into rubble and skip bombing the transports.

It's an interesting timeline but I really feel that it's the US Navy vs all the Japanese forces. The army and marines have something like 2 divisions total engaged from what I can count? 1st Marine Division and 2nd Marine Division seem to have disappeared off the map, army air forces not making any contribution worth mentioning. If MacArthur isn't fighting in New Guinea, what is he even doing? Where is George Kenney?

The Army air forces are there too, it's just that listing "P-40s, P-38s, P-47s, P-39s, F4Fs, some Australian-built design and heaps of other stuff all set off to bomb Port Moresby" takes a lot longer to write out than "Wildcats bombed it", and certainly in the early months, Wildcats were the majority of the ground based air forces (at least in terms of fighters).
The bombers have been doing a whole bunch of tasks - bombing Port Moresby and Fiji in particular to keep those bases from being particularly useful, as well as air-supplying the forces in western New Caledonia that have been cut off by road at Bouloupari and the resistance fighters on Viti Levu. And patrolling the sea around Samoa and Tongatabu. There's only a couple of hundred aircraft covering the area, so there is a limit to what they can do (and I'd rather fill updates with interesting stuff like the fighting on NewCal than with mundane air patrols that don't find anything).
MacArthur is currently in charge of the defences in Northern Australia, particularly the 'Brisbane Line' (I think I've mentioned this a couple of times); the Marines are primarily tasked with defending Samoa and Tongatabu - there's not really enough transport yet available for a major amphibious offensive, and considering the Japanese have been rampaging through the South Pacific for the last six months it is completely reasonable to expect Samoa or Tongatabu to be attacked at some point, so a large defence there would be ideal (remembering that the US, despite codebreaking, doesn't have 100% knowledge of what the Japanese are capable of, and will very likely overestimate those capabilities).

Big oof. Looks like Japan got their NIGHT BATTLE plans to work in TTL. How many 'kills' did Yamato score?

Hard to know which ship scored the critical hit. But Yamato can be given partial credit for both Colorado and Maryland.

Speaking of shipbuilding, how concerned is HQ about Japan's losses? The Taiho and Unryú were still being built, are there others I forgot?

Chiyoda and Chitose for carriers; Musashi and Shinano (and potentially 111 and 797, although those wouldn't be finished by 1945) for battleships.

As for the existing fleets:
USN
Langley - sunk at Java
Lexington - sunk at Coral Sea
Saratoga - wrecked, back in action 43
Ranger - Atlantic
Yorktown - sunk at Coral Sea
Enterprise - sunk at South Pacific*
Wasp - Sunk at South Pacific*
Hornet - undamaged, en route to South Pacific, available 12/42
Essex class - available from 6/43

Wyoming - Atlantic
Arkansas - Atlantic
New York - Atlantic (OTL transferred to Pacific 11/44)
Texas - Atlantic (OTL transferred to Pacific 11/44)
Nevada - Atlantic (OTL was at Attu before transfer in early 43)
Oklahoma - Sunk at Pearl Harbour
Pennsylvania - West Coast, available early 1943
Arizona - Sunk at Pearl Harbour
New Mexico - North Pacific protecting Aleutians/Alaska
Mississippi - North Pacific protecting Aleutians/Alaska
Idaho - Training off West Coast, available mid 1943
Tennessee - Repairing/rebuilding West Coast, available mid 1943
California - Sunk at Pearl Harbour, refloated, available early 1944
Colorado - Sunk at South Pacific
Maryland - Sunk at South Pacific
North Carolina - Damaged 1942, available early 1943**
Washington - Sunk near New Caledonia
South Dakota - Fletcher's fleet
Indiana - en route to South Pacific, available early 1943
Massachusetts - Torch; en route to South Pacific, available 4/43
Alabama - Atlantic (OTL transferred to Pacific late 43)
Iowa class - Under construction, available early 44.
Montana - ???

IJN
Akagi - Needs repairs
Hiryu - Needs repairs
Kaga - sunk Oct 25th 1942
Shokaku - Available, part of FS
Soryu - sunk at New Caledonia
Zuikaku - sunk at Samoa
Taiho - under construction, available April 1944
Unryu (Taiho class) - under construction, available 1945

Hosho - Training/transport
Ryujo - Available
Junyo - Available
Hiyo - Available
Unyo - Available
Taiyo - Training/transport
Ryuho - Training/transport
Shoho - Sunk at Espiritu Santo
Zuiho - Sunk at South Pacific
Chiyoda - Under conversion, available early 1944
Chitose - Under conversion, available early 1944

Fuso - Home Islands***
Yamashiro - Home Islands
Ise - Home Islands
Hyuga - Home Islands
Nagato - Damaged, available 1944
Mutsu - Lightly damaged, part of FS
Kongo - Lightly damaged, part of FS
Hiei - Sunk at South Pacific
Kirishima - Home Islands
Haruna - Home Islands
Yamato - Part of FS
Musashi - Available 1943
Shinano - Available 1944

* = "New Caledonia" is the October battle, "South Pacific" (which took place between Efate and Fiji) is the November battle
** = I'm not sure if I ever wrote North Carolina's damage into the TL, but my notes list her as damaged. If I didn't, assume she was damaged by a Japanese submarine at some point.
*** = "Home Islands" being a general reference for "is not taking part in FS, and is available for service if needed".

- BNC