Operation Flash TL

Been thinking about this one for a while.

On 13 March 1943, plotters based at Army Group Center HQ on the Eastern Front near Smolensk successfully planted a bomb on Hitler’s FW Condor. The device failed to detonate, and the error is usually ascribed to the package being placed in the freezing cargo hold, which prevented the acid from eating the wire that released the firing pin, triggering the detonator. Alternatively, the detonator itself was faulty.

In this TL, the only change is the device successfully detonates.

The explosion rips apart the aircraft, and without its rear wings for stabilization, it immediately spins out of control, making successful ejection impossible. The airplane crashes in the woods near Minsk. In addition to Hitler, Keitel, OKW chief, Jodl, OKW Chief of Operations as well as Zeitzler, Chief of Army General Staff (OKH) are also on board the downed aircraft.

The fighter escorts immediately radio the Minsk control tower reporting the crash, and security forces are dispatched to secure the crash site and search for survivors. This will take some hours.

In the meantime, the news is sent up the command chain, as well as being relayed to AGC HQ. The day before, Goering, the designated heir to Adolf Hitler, had flown from Rome to Vinnitsa in the Ukraine to meet with Hitler. I’ve been unable to ascertain his or Himmler’s location on 13 March, but I have to assume he’s at the Air Ministry in Berlin. He therefore receives the news of the crash within in an hour or so, at the most.

Realizing at once he is now acting Führer, Goering has to take control of the state apparatus at once. The first move is to assemble the cabinet to the Reichskanslerei, in addition to a national radio broadcast proclaiming himself acting Führer. Setting up the equipment and preparing the broadcast will take a couple of hours (source: Peter Hoffmann, History of the German Resistance on the peculiarities of radio broadcast after the attempt at the Wolffschanze). Goering rings Goebbels, who that evening was scheduled to dine with Funk and Speer (according to his own diaries), and Goebbels sets about getting everything ready. We must also assume Goering gets a hold of Himmler as well, and summons him to the Reichskanslerei.

The core issue at stake in the entire process is who will obey who’s orders? With both Keitel and Hitler out of action, military authority devolves to the regional commanders. In Germany, that means General Fromm, C-in-C of the Ersatzheer. On the Eastern Front, that means Küchler, Kluge and Manstein. In France, Rundstedt, in the Mediterranean that means Kesselring.

In the meantime, the plotters at AGC HQ have been alerted minutes after the crash their attempt was successful, that is, before Goering. They immediately telephone co-conspirators in Berling that Operation Flash has been successfully “ignited”.

The plans, according to Peter Hoffmann, involved activating the No. IV Branderburger Regiment, which immediately deploys to occupy the government quarter in Berlin. The forces are under command of Colonel Lahousen, a co-conspirator. Forces are simultaneously activated in Munich and Vienna as well as Cologne.

So. The regiment has the element of surprise with it. They will almost certainly capture the government quarters.

But who do they capture?

This depends on how quickly they are to act. Assembling in combat groups probably takes an hour or two. The comes the drive to the government HQ.

It is not unreasonable to think this delay from receiving the go-head from Olbricht/Oster to seizing the Reichskanslerei is precisely the window needed to ensure that all German cabinet ministers are nicely waiting at the Reichskanslerei when the Brandenburgers show up.

The reserve army is in no position to act for several hours, so even if Fromm issues an alert, he wouldn’t be able to prevent the Lahousen from seizing the government quarter.

Discuss.
 
Here's what I think happens:

Lahousen captures Goering, Goebbels, Funk and Speer, among others. The resolute action of the conspirators encourages Kluge, C-in-C Army Group Center, to come out in their support, and he pressures Fromm to back the coup with the Ersatzheer.

Presented with the fait accompli and sensing a possible way for Germany to escape the impending disaster of the War, Fromm orders the Reserve Army to high alert, and prepares secret orders to disarm local branches of the SS. The Waffen SS divisions (of which there are 10) are mostly deployed on the Eastern Front, in the middle of severe fighting or in Germany but understrength and are being refitted.

Witzleben arrives at Zossen and announces he is taking command of the army. As a Field Marshal he is able to compel the General Staff to comply with his orders. There is only a weak attempt at issuing counter orders from the Wolf's Lair at Rastenburg, since the senior officers there are awaiting orders from the political leadership (which unknownst to them is being held in custody by the conspirators).

Senior army commanders who might've been loyal to Goering are receiving no orders from him, since he's being held in custody, and in any case, his reputation is destroyed due to the Stalingrad defeat.

The conspirators offer Goering a deal:

Declare General Beck Reichspräsident, Carl Goerdeler Chancellor, order the arrest of Himmler and the integration of all Waffen SS and Luftwaffe field divisions into the army, and in return have his life and fortune spared. Failing this he will be immediately tried by a military tribunal and hanged. The tribunal would be led by Oster, who the conspirators intend to name chief justice (and who had assembled ample evidence against the Nazi leadership).

After deliberation and receiving adequate guarantees, Goering accepts and addresses the nation in a prepared and recorded statement some time during the next day, 14 March 1943.

The Reserve Army is ordered into action against the SS and immediately moves to occupy concentration camps, police headquarters and SS strongholds across the country. Decapitated, there is only disorganized and sporadic, if often fierce resistance by the SS, although dozens if not scores of people are killed in clashes.

Throughout 14 March and the following days, numerous broadcasts by conspirators, including union leaders as well as senior officers are made, encouraging the people to rally behind the new Provisional government. The systematic occupation of radio stations by the Reserve Army makes counter broadcasts by Nazi party and SS leaders difficult and less than effective.

Germany is now under a quasi-military dictatorship, who within a week has taken firm control of the country.
 
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