Operation Felix, a German victory.

[burgoynewulfe]

Hello all, I am currently working on a timeline for a German victory in Europe during the second world war. Now I know that this has been done to death, trust me I know, however, I am more interested in writing short stories for this particular POD in modern times and farther in the future. I certainly don't want to copy the same formula that others have already done. With that being said I would like to develop a timeline on how they won ww2 in the first place, I feel that it is important for any stories I will write as far as world-building is concerned and to try and keep it as realistic as possible.

I do have a general idea of how I think events need to go for this timeline to work. First, no successful Operation Sealion or successful Barbarossa as I understand those cliches are overdone and unrealistic. Instead, I have chosen Operation Felix (operation to take Gibralter) as the original POD. In my timeline, I imagine Hitler is convinced of Soviet superiority in the event of Barbarossa in 1941 so he proceeds with a Mediterranean strategy. In effect, Hitler would be able to cut off Britain's empire, the oil fields of the middle east would be occupied and the Suez would be occupied. Also, the Germans would be able to invade Russia from Poland and the Caucuses, on two fronts. However, the Russians invade Germany before they make it to the Caucuses but are resounding defeated by the superior tactics of the Wehrmacht. Now, this is about all I have developed for specifics but I imagine a German invasion of Soviet Union only to about Riga or Kiev, they would never make it as far as they did in real life for numerous reasons. I also imagine a failed Allied invasion of France sometime in 1943. In the end, the Soviet Union will make peace with Germany, think brest-litovsk 1943 and America would make peace with Germany as soon as the Soviets dropped out of the war, leaving only Britain left to fight on. I'd like to have an operation sealion type invasion at the end of the war but that is likely not very realistic.

All creative criticism is welcomed but keep in mind that a sense of disbelief has to be taken into account since the Germans didn't have really any chance of winning the war, this is more about how they COULD have won. I've read all about the reasons on why they were defeated, why Barbarossa was a failure from the start and all that but I feel given all considerations, an operation Felix POD as I have presented it is by far the most realistic way they could have won.

 

[A Piece of History]

nstead, I have chosen Operation Felix (operation to take Gibralter) as the original POD. In my timeline, I imagine Hitler is convinced of Soviet superiority in the event of Barbarossa in 1941 so he proceeds with a Mediterranean strategy. In effect, Hitler would be able to cut off Britain's empire, the oil fields of the middle east would be occupied and the Suez would be occupied. Also, the Germans would be able to invade Russia from Poland and the Caucuses, on two fronts

I suspect that the Germans will invade the Caucasus through the Middle East. Is Turkey going to have a part in this?

 

[burgoynewulfe]

I suspect that the Germans will invade the Caucasus through the Middle East. Is Turkey going to have a part in this?

From what I've read, Turkey wasn't very interested in working with the Germans but anything can change given the circumstances, such as a vast German army on your doorstep. An alternative would of course be Persia.

 

[Michele]

Fine, let's say the Germans take Gibraltar and don't go to war with the Soviet Union. And...? How does this become a successful German Med strategy? How does the Axis end up on Suez, let alone in the Iraqi oilfields? Let alone to advance from the South through the Caucasus?
You do know that the supplies for the 8th British Army didn't go through Gibraltar. You will also remember that if Germany doesn't invade the Soviet Union in 1941, then the Germans have to begin paying the supplies they are receiving, starting that spring. I could mention a dozen other issues, but I'm sure you are aware of them. So could you explain how the Axis succeeds at solving them?

 

[matlef]

Why does the US make peace when they know that in a couple of years they should have nukes? And that Germany can't invade Britain, the Uboots are manageable if costly, And the RAF with USAAF reinforcement can defend the British skies even if with no eastern front they would switch to night bombing.

Furthermore why does the USSR surrender? Without the Germans coming as far as they did they have more factories, more people to recruit from, and the reforms that the USSR were in the middle of in 1941 would have been completed meaning a much more competent red army with more modern tanks and equipment.

And if both the USSR and the USA had made peace, then why does Britain keep fighting? Since their Atomic bomb program is already subsumed into the manhattan project that route is gone and they are left with no way to defeat Germany. So why are they not making peace? This is not comparable to the situation after the fall of France as then both the USSR and the US were at peace and the hope was that at least the US might become involved in the war at a later date.

And of course everything that @Michele said.

 

[MFP4073]

Good points @Michele.

Why does the US even enter the war in this scenario? OTL, it took the threat of a Nazi-dominated Europe (Barbarossa had yet to fail and for all intents and purposes looked as if it was going to succeed) and a DOW from Hitler to get the US fully involved. Why would the US get involved in this scenario?

 

[matlef]

Good points @Michele.

Why does the US even enter the war in this scenario? OTL, it took the threat of a Nazi-dominated Europe (Barbarossa had yet to fail and for all intents and purposes looked as if it was going to succeed) and a DOW from Hitler to get the US fully involved. Why would the US get involved in this scenario?

Enough sinkings and confrontations in the Atlantic perhaps? Or just Japan deciding to commit national suicide and doing PH, meaning that it's either watching how the UK and USSR gets free supplies from the US (with US led convoys daring the Germans to attack) or declare war and try to cut those off.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

...
You do know that the supplies for the 8th British Army didn't go through Gibratar? ...

Indeed.

This seems to be one of the more ignored points of WWIi. Op TIGER was a notable exception, but from the Italian DoW in June 1940 to May 1943 the Sicilian Strait was effectively closed to Allied cargo ships. I'm doubting 1% of Allied cargo went via the Mediterranean until the Sicilian Strait was reopened in 1943. Gibraltar was useful as a refueling station for Force H, & as a sally gate for raiding or attacking in the western Med. The Axis taking the place would have a insignificant effect on Allied supply to Egypt or east of Suez.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

The main issue with Op. Felix (and why it never happened OTL) is what's in it for Spain?

Spain would have to be involved in order for this plan to work and effectively becomes an enemy of Britain and has vulnerable assets that Britain can seize such as certain Islands in the Atlantic which would go someway to compensating to the loss of Gib and providing a powerful base in conducting and winning the battle of the Atlantic

Also Spain would become isolated with her merchant fleet reduced to sitting in port, interened in a neutral port or sunk/taken by the RN making it difficult for food supplies etc reaching the place.

Spain also becomes an enemy of sorts of the USA

Spain has already used up most of its Gold etc so that cannot help Germany settling the bill with Stalin that it already cannot pay

And given the countries recent devestating civil war half the country will soon be turned into an anti facist resistance by those scally wags in London

Spains leaders knew all of this - so for this POD to work - whats in it for Spain?

 

[The Byronic Hero]

Why not have the Germans support the Iraqis via Syria following the Fall of France? The Iraqis are more aggressive at Habbiniya scoring an important early victory opening the way for eventual German intervention.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Indeed.

This seems to be one of the more ignored points of WWIi. Op TIGER was a notable exception, but from the Italian DoW in June 1940 to May 1943 the Sicilian Strait was effectively closed to Allied cargo ships. I'm doubting 1% of Allied cargo went via the Mediterranean until the Sicilian Strait was reopened in 1943. Gibraltar was useful as a refueling station for Force H, & as a sally gate for raiding or attacking in the western Med. The Axis taking the place would have a insignificant effect on Allied supply to Egypt or east of Suez.

How about the Malta convoys? And Malta impact on the North African war?

 

[GDIS Pathe]

How about the Malta convoys? And Malta impact on the North African war?

IIRC weren't most of those marshaled in Alexandria and not Gibraltar

 

[Zheng He]

Malta out of British hands removes the requirement to support the place. Yes forces on Malta interdicted Rommel’s supplies but the British paid a steep price to sustain the island.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

IIRC weren't most of those marshaled in Alexandria and not Gibraltar

Yes. Most came from the east. The disaster of Op Pedestal was launched from Gibraltar.

Malta out of British hands removes the requirement to support the place. Yes forces on Malta interdicted Rommel’s supplies but the British paid a steep price to sustain the island.

During the periods Malta was unsupressed by Axis air attacks it contributed to supply interdiction, otherwise the bulk of the interdiction was from Alexandria based naval forces, or when Benghazi was in British hands by aircraft based there as well.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

...
Spains leaders knew all of this - so for this POD to work - whats in it for Spain?

Remnants of a empire it cannot afford to sustain? The Rif War in the 1920s nearly broke Spain. Is it realistic to think Spain can deal with a large population of disgruntled French and annoyed Arabs, vengeful Berbers, and frightened Jews? I expect I left out some other significant group there, but if there is one that would be happy under Spanish rule please point them out.

The relative prosperity of Morocco & Algeria was mostly in exportation of food and minerals to Metropolitan France. How much of that market would remain open to this new Spanish empire in he new German European order?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

IIRC weren't most of those marshaled in Alexandria and not Gibraltar

Many were, but the Club Runs and must critical convoys staged from Gibraltar. Plus a large part of Mediterranean Fleet transited from the Gibraltar station, without which complicates a lot of naval operations. Beyond that having Spain as a full on air/naval base for the Axis makes things a lot tougher for the Allies in the Atlantic, especially as they would need to route quite fare around Spain, which makes shipments from Britain quite a bit more complicated. Portugal is going to be a lot more friendly to the Axis out of fear, all of the Spanish mines will be working for the Axis, not selling to the Allies (which matters apparently to some of Britain iron and potash supplies, the later of which would impact British agriculture). Also the Italian navy can then move out of the Mediterranean and the Axis Uboat in with impunity, while Vichy now is surrounded by Axis countries and invading North Africa for the Allies gets much more complicated.

Yes. Most came from the east. The disaster of Op Pedestal was launched from Gibraltar.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Pedestal
Disaster? That was the convoy that saved Malta from capitulating!

During the periods Malta was unsupressed by Axis air attacks it contributed to supply interdiction, otherwise the bulk of the interdiction was from Alexandria based naval forces, or when Benghazi was in British hands by aircraft based there as well.

The fact that so much effort was put into Malta suppression would mean if it falls that frees up a lot of Axis resources.

The main issue with Op. Felix (and why it never happened OTL) is what's in it for Spain?

Likely not territorial expansion, but instead supplies on the German dime and likely it would have to get a lot of German help rebuilding the country from the civil war, as the Germans would need to offer something to get them in the war and also have a functioning transport system to utilize Spain as a base. Spain badly needed help rebuilding; by the end of WW2 their economy was weaker than it was a decade earlier due to the lack of recovery from the civil war. So rather than offering territory other than Gibraltar, Germany, despite the supply aid, could stand to give Spain reconstruction aid as their price to entry and perhaps a cut of the French industrial spoils, which would be a FAR cheaper price than Operation Barbarossa.

Spain would have to be involved in order for this plan to work and effectively becomes an enemy of Britain and has vulnerable assets that Britain can seize such as certain Islands in the Atlantic which would go someway to compensating to the loss of Gib and providing a powerful base in conducting and winning the battle of the Atlantic

How soon could they seize those islands and would the Germans/Axis in general be able to reinforce them first enough to offset British efforts?

 

[Zheng He]

Malta falling also frees up a lot of British resources. That island was a bleeding ulcer for the Royal Navy.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Malta falling also frees up a lot of British resources. That island was a bleeding ulcer for the Royal Navy.

Sure, but it depends on when it falls. The British may free up resources, but so much depends on what they can actually do with them compared to the resources that are freed up by the Axis.

Consider this map of the BotA to the end of 1941:

Spain is a perfect base to interdict supplies to Egypt from Britain, while eliminating the British naval base that sank so many Uboats around Spain on the map (the red dots). The Canaries, if they could be turned into a base, nearly sit astride the SL-WS convoy transit point and let Type VIIs Uboats operate there, rather than just the longer range Type IXs. IOTL that was the 2nd richest hunting ground for the Uboats other than the upper Atlantic. Also the proximity means land base air units could be used to attack or at least spot for Uboats.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Many were, but the Club Runs and must critical convoys staged from Gibraltar. Plus a large part of Mediterranean Fleet transited from the Gibraltar station, without which complicates a lot of naval operations. Beyond that having Spain as a full on air/naval base for the Axis makes things a lot tougher for the Allies in the Atlantic, especially as they would need to route quite fare around Spain, which makes shipments from Britain quite a bit more complicated. Portugal is going to be a lot more friendly to the Axis out of fear, all of the Spanish mines will be working for the Axis, not selling to the Allies (which matters apparently to some of Britain iron and potash supplies, the later of which would impact British agriculture). Also the Italian navy can then move out of the Mediterranean and the Axis Uboat in with impunity, while Vichy now is surrounded by Axis countries and invading North Africa for the Allies gets much more complicated.

The Azores & otters Atlantic islands are a good trade off for Gibraltar & the risk from Spanish naval or airbases. The Germans already had better of both in France.

The Brits dealt efficiently with routing cargo ship traffic around Africa Adding a few hundred kilometers to the S Atlantic route is relatively minor.

Salazares government intended to move to the Azores rather than submit to mush of anything.

The Italian navy could barely operate in the Med. The elements that did operate agains Britain in the Atlantic were considered a waste of fuel by the Germans.

& why invade French NW Africa? There are more useful targets.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Pedestal

Disaster? That was the convoy that saved Malta from capitulating!

Thats the Churchill line. Consider the material that got through vs the losses in war ships and cargo. Malta was at low eb due to British miscalculation earlier & the Pedestal Operation was a action forced by avoidable circumstances.

The fact that so much effort was put into Malta suppression would mean if it falls that frees up a lot of Axis resources.

To send to the strategic dead end of Africa? Or as a small bucket of water on the conflagration of the Eastern front?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

The Azores & otters Atlantic islands are a good trade off for Gibraltar & the risk from Spanish naval or airbases. The Germans already had better of both in France.

The Brits dealt efficiently with routing cargo ship traffic around Africa Adding a few hundred kilometers to the S Atlantic route is relatively minor.

Salazares government intended to move to the Azores rather than submit to mush of anything.

The Italian navy could barely operate in the Med. The elements that did operate agains Britain in the Atlantic were considered a waste of fuel by the Germans.

& why invade French NW Africa? There are more useful targets.

The Azores were Portuguese, not Spanish. Unless the Brits opt to declare war on Portugal, they aren't getting them...unless the Axis opts to attack Portugal too. French bases were great for some things, but Spain's geographical position was much more beneficial for cutting British contacts with the Empire than France; see the map I posted above.

The Italian navy was not a specific threat in practice, but the Brits didn't fully realize how bad they were, so were, as with the German battleships, overly cautious in how they planned to counter them, locking down assets that really weren't needed to do so.

If the US enters the war, where will they land ITTL other than North Africa?

Thats the Churchill line. Consider the material that got through vs the losses in war ships and cargo. Malta was at low eb due to British miscalculation earlier & the Pedestal Operation was a action forced by avoidable circumstances.

And the line of historians that actually looked at the supply situation for Malta. They meager supplies that got through kept them going, even if Churchill's planning created the mess. The fact was the island nearly fell and it was Gibraltar staged supplies that saved them after the Alexandria convoys were turned back at 'Bomb Alley' thanks to Cretean based bombers.

To send to the strategic dead end of Africa? Or as a small bucket of water on the conflagration of the Eastern front?

Strategic dead end? ITTL there is no Eastern Front per OP. Going after the British Empire creates the political pressure to drive them from the war, even if they theoretically could survive on US welfare for as long as the US wanted to supply it.