Operation Eagle Claw successful

I would have all the hostages home safely. Jimmy Carter gets a boost in popularity. It does not last until November. The bad economy does him in. Without the hostage crisis, however, Reagan wins by a lower margin. The popular vote is 47% to 45%. Carter carries Vermont, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, DC, West Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Hawaii, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Kentucky. The Electoral College is Reagan 281 to Carter 245. Reagan is a minority president. He has much less of a mandate. The biggest difference between ITTL and OTL is Reagan does not benefit from being declared the winner at 8 pm Eastern Time. His narrow win in Illinois which puts him over the top is not declared until 11:30 or so. The 1980 presidential election is remembered as a nail biter. The other problem Reagan has is that 9 Democrats: New Hampshire, New York, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Idaho and Arizona, win their close Senate races. Democrats enjoy a 55 to 45 Senate majority, 18 House Democrats win their close elections. Four were from the Carolinas, one each from Texas and Utah but the rest appear to be Northern or Western liberals. Reagan would have to compromise more. He gets his tax cut through. OTL it passed 89 - 11 in the Senate and by 238 votes in the House. The Budget Cuts OTL won by 80 -14 in the Senate but by 217 -211 in the House. The additional 12 liberals would have defeated it. There is one interesting unknowable. How popular would the guy who defeats Barry Goldwater ITTL have been. Could John McCain have won in 1986?
 
Eagle Claw succeeding is basically ASB. The OTL failure was one of the best outcomes, in that it was comparatively bloodless. Given a giant super-Mogadishu that still doesn't succeed in freeing the hostages (and probably kills most of them), Carter's going to look even less popular.
 
Aside from the obvious, better heliocopters there is the problem of the Desert One transfer location, a bit to exposed & public. Then there is random small arms fire in Terhan crippling a heliocopter, never mind if the Iranian army of air force cut loose with real fire power. Then the hostage guards need to roll over & die on cue. If they actually fight effectively... Its a long list.
 
One thing that is often neglected in "what if Operation Eagle Claw had succeeded" discussions (and it is hard for me to imagine any "success" that does not involve a substantial number of US deaths, both Delta Force and hostages) is that at the time of the attmpted rescue mission, *there were still Americans who were walking around free* in Iran. If Eagle Claw had "succeeded", Iran could simply make them the new hostages.

Cyrus Vance pointed that out in objecting to the proposed rescue mission:

"I reminded the group that even if the rescue mission did free some of the embassy staff, the Iranians could simply take more hostages from among the American journalists still in Tehran. We would then be worse off than before, and the whole region would be severely inflamed by our action." http://books.google.com/books?id=RH5SZHYfMI4C&pg=PA82

Zbigniew Brzezinski, the leading advocate within the administration of a rescue mission, did pay some attention to this possibility. He argued "that we should consider taking prisoners back with us, so that we would have bargaining leverage in the event that the Iranians seized other Americans as hostages..." http://books.google.com/books?id=RH5SZHYfMI4C&pg=PA86
 

abc123

Banned
A bit of off-topic, but could serious US threat ( like parking of 3-4 CBGs in Gulf ) and threat to bomb Iran back to stone age ( starting with oil instalations ) if they do not let hostages- suceed?
 
I think the biggest danger from a successful Eagle Claw would be overconfidence.

If they pulled it off, they would have come unglued somewhere else and a lot more messily.
 

RousseauX

Donor
A bit of off-topic, but could serious US threat ( like parking of 3-4 CBGs in Gulf ) and threat to bomb Iran back to stone age ( starting with oil instalations ) if they do not let hostages- suceed?

The moment the bombs fall is the moment the hostages die.

Whatever the consequence of or the region Carter gets screwed in 1980 elections.
 
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