Paul V McNutt
Banned
I would have all the hostages home safely. Jimmy Carter gets a boost in popularity. It does not last until November. The bad economy does him in. Without the hostage crisis, however, Reagan wins by a lower margin. The popular vote is 47% to 45%. Carter carries Vermont, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, DC, West Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Hawaii, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Kentucky. The Electoral College is Reagan 281 to Carter 245. Reagan is a minority president. He has much less of a mandate. The biggest difference between ITTL and OTL is Reagan does not benefit from being declared the winner at 8 pm Eastern Time. His narrow win in Illinois which puts him over the top is not declared until 11:30 or so. The 1980 presidential election is remembered as a nail biter. The other problem Reagan has is that 9 Democrats: New Hampshire, New York, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Idaho and Arizona, win their close Senate races. Democrats enjoy a 55 to 45 Senate majority, 18 House Democrats win their close elections. Four were from the Carolinas, one each from Texas and Utah but the rest appear to be Northern or Western liberals. Reagan would have to compromise more. He gets his tax cut through. OTL it passed 89 - 11 in the Senate and by 238 votes in the House. The Budget Cuts OTL won by 80 -14 in the Senate but by 217 -211 in the House. The additional 12 liberals would have defeated it. There is one interesting unknowable. How popular would the guy who defeats Barry Goldwater ITTL have been. Could John McCain have won in 1986?