Operation Dragoon fails

Difficult to see how it could fail. A combat veteran, well trained and equipped army with a surfeit of air power vs a poorly trained and equipped army with negligible air support.

But lets go with it. Churchill & Brooke were both opposed to the ANVIL and DRAGOON operations, wanting to use the combat and ground forces in Italy and the Balkans. Had they got their way...

A entire Allied Army group is removed from the OB in France September through November. The US 12th Army Group has to try to cover the entire right wing of the front in France and advance south to Switzerland. That makes any offensive action to the Siegfried line, or support of 21 AG problematic.

No pocketing elements of the German Army Group G in central France. At least 25,000 German soldiers escape to the Reich. Perhaps over 50,000 if the higher counts for PW taken by 6th AG are used.

Accelerating shipment of combat forces and supply from the US to replace 6th AG is difficult. The ports and railway capacity or France & Belgium was at or above its limits in the autumn of 1944 & not capturing the Marseilles/Toloun port group in September reduces Allies supply capacity for October/December by at least 20%. This more or less kills the autumn/winter efforts to break into the German border defense and position for a spring offensive.

The French leaders will be furious & refuse their forces for further British favored operations in Italy & Balkans. They may even execute their own private operation in late August or September to get a lodgment in South France and move their armies there. While the US leaders may be sympathetic to this & even give support it will represent a major and debilitating rift in Allied cooperation.

Less Allied pressure in the west allows the Germans to swing more weight in the east. It also means a less dense Allied front in the west in December to oppose any German offensives.
 
Difficult to see how it could fail. A combat veteran, well trained and equipped army with a surfeit of air power vs a poorly trained and equipped army with negligible air support.

Right...

But lets go with it. Churchill & Brooke were both opposed to the ANVIL and DRAGOON operations, wanting to use the combat and ground forces in Italy and the Balkans. Had they got their way...

OK, the above seems to mean that you don't actually go with the notion that Dragoon is attempted but fails, rather that it is never attempted, because the troops remain/go to Italy/the Balkans.

Fine, then you list the downsides in France. OK, no objection there.

But surely there will be something good happening for the Allies in Italy and/or the Balkans, right? If you use all those troops there, something's gotta give. I guess.
 
But surely there will be something good happening for the Allies in Italy and/or the Balkans, right? If you use all those troops there, something's gotta give. I guess.

Maybe Allies break through, capture Bologna, roll up the Po, and force the Germans to retreat to the River Adige Line. If they're especially lucky, they may even overrun Veneto, and then face a German defensive line on the Alps. They're not going to break through Brenner. Maybe they can link up with the Yugoslavian partisans, but Tito will be mad if they take Trieste.
 
Turning east from N Italy & heading for the Lubjania Gap & points north runs into inadequate ports and a thin rail an automotive road system. NW Europe had the best developed transport infrastructure in Europe & the Allis still had supply problems.

Capturing places like Tirania, Skopjie, Belgrade, seem like a poor trade off to Hamburg, Frankfort, or Vienna.
 
I'm not saying it would be a good idea, naturally. Only that you listed the drawbacks in France (and in general in the main operation against the heartland of Germany), but there would be some bright side to this diversion.
Add that the Germans might feel compelled to shift some forces, which would have some side effects on the main theater. Or, they might even shift many forces; there's still Hitler in charge, and he might always get one of his famous hunches, say, that Milan is the key to keeping the enemy out of Germany or something.
 
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