Operation downfall considerations fail

Once you think the enemy is just an animal, nothing will stop the destructions and the slaughters

Intosh said:
government propaganda was only lies about the Americans being barbarians, rapers and killers.

Seems kind of contradicting these two sentences after eachother doesn't it?

If they really did see the Japanese as just animals, if the Japanese military killed the POW's, if kamikazi planes destroyed many boats before they even reached the shores to fight i think Japanese propaganda might get their truth handed on them on a silver, bloody platter. A the japanese population too. Once the killing started(ala Vietnam) the raping and other atrocities would soon follow. On Okinawa many women where raped by American soldiers too, their actions covered up. I think in japan itself it would be much, much worse.

Like i said, this event would change the face of the war. Imagine Vietnam, only 100 times worse.
 
All of this is academic

CalBear hits the target here. It is extremely unlikely (especially after the Typhoon) that Olympic and Coronet would have actually happened. There was enormous resistance to any invasion from the Navy (which felt that their blockade and bombardment was doing the job of forcing a Japanese surrender) and even the Army (actually the non-MacArthur faciton of the Army) was beginning to have serious doubts about the efficacy of the invasion approach.

Much more likely would have been a tightened blockade, followed by increased bombardment (including nuclear) of Japanese cities. There was some truly ugly plans in the works (use of various biologicals against Japanese food supplies and isolated garrisons still holding out, for instance), and some interesting weapon systems (the Loon, as an example) scheduled for deployment that would have facilitated this strategy as well. American casualities would have been limited, and Japanese death tolls (mostly from starvation and disease, particularly as the food distribution network began to break down) would have been substantially higher. Given the fanaticism on the part of some of the senior Japanese military leadership, it is not inconceivable that the lines of authority would break down and local commanders might NEVER surrender until death in some form took them. All of this would prolong Japan's long agony and delay (if not destroy) and chance of recovery for decades, if ever...

As for the Soviets, they certainly contributed to the collapse, but they were hardly an important factor, pace Hasegawa. Ultimately they had little ability to do more than a few token landings on the NW coast, and intervene in China, but their own logistical limitations would prevent this from being a sustainable campaign for some time.
 
But I don't think the Japanese civilians will fight with pointed sticks, on Okinawa, the Americans used a heavy propaganda to try to save civilians lifes from mass suicides, and often they were successfull, with the help of Japanese-Americans and japanese POW's who were very cooperative once captured...

This would be same Okinawa that lost a little under half it's civilian population (142,000 out of a civilian population of around 300,000) by the time the battle was over? Not exactly the best argument for the US arms being able to go into Japan without a huge civilian death toll.

That said, CalBear has the right of it; why bother invading when the blockade and bombing will utterly crush Japan with far less risk to American lives. At most, there might have to be an eventual US "invasion" if the hardliners in Japan refuse to surrender long enough for Japan to fall apart once the mass famines start, but by that point there wouldn't be anyone capable of offering organized resistance to US forces.
 
But I don't think the Japanese civilians will fight with pointed sticks, on Okinawa, the Americans used a heavy propaganda to try to save civilians lifes from mass suicides, and often they were successfull, with the help of Japanese-Americans and japanese POW's who were very cooperative once captured...

You have made a very important point here. Japanese POW's were usually very cooperative with their American captors. There code of fighting to the death meant that they were never trained in how to resist the enemy after capture. Prisoners usually told everything they knew as soon as a Japanese speaking interrogator could interview them. Many became active collaborators. There's a good account of some cases in John Dower's War Without Mercy.
 
In OTL, around 4 000 kamikaze were used against the Allies, the losses were heavy but in was 1945 and the Americans began to forget how big were the losses for the US Navy from 1942-1943.
Yeah, but there are two more points to consider:
1) The navy at Kyushu will be much closer to the shore.
2) The Kamikazes will be going after the transports rather than the warships.

And the Americans will adapt their tactics, used waves of fighters, bomb to oblivion every japanese airbases, and put the armored decks of the Royal Navy CV on the first lines.
The bombers will come too late and armouring the carriers will be worthless because they won't be targeted.
 
IIRC, the Americans anticipated heavy kamikaze use and planned to counter it by modifying the first wave of troopships with armour plate and AA guns from bow to stern.
 
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