Operation Barbarossa succeeds. How soon can the WAllies plausibly attempt a landing?

[BooNZ]

At that point the UK has no real choice but to follow the US lead.

Really?

Edit: To clarify, West Germany had no choice by to be a fire wall against the Soviets, because it was effectively an occupied state.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

Really?

Edit: To clarify, West Germany had no choice by to be a fire wall against the Soviets, because it was effectively an occupied state.

If that was true, then NATO would have adopted a defense-in-depth (as they had before the GDR was consolidated) instead of tying themselves to a linear defense at West German insistence.

 

[BooNZ]

If that was true, then NATO would have adopted a defense-in-depth (as they had before the GDR was consolidated) instead of tying themselves to a linear defense at West German insistence.

So linear defense is impervious to nuclear strikes?

 

[ObssesedNuker]

So linear defense is impervious to nuclear strikes?

No. If anything it's much more vulnerable, as one only has to nuke a single defense belt instead of a series of them. The West Germans knew that a defense-in-depth, even if successful, would see a minimum of half their country overrun and savaged by the conventional fighting alone. So the West Germans advocated for a linear defense so as to stop a Soviet assault as close to the border as possible, thereby minimizing the damage to their own country from the fighting.

The problem is that such a linear defense had been attempted repeatedly during WW2 (at different points and by different people) against precisely the kind of massed mechanized assault the Soviets were expected to mount... and failed, catastrophically. From a military perspective, it was nuts. Yet the politicians who led West Germany were adamant and NATO relented.

But my point in making that post is to show that being able to force the other alliance members to adopt a militarily unsound deployment scheme shows that the West Germans had considerable political clout within NATO precisely because of their status as the designated battlefield for WW3. They were not merely an autonomous occupied state like East Germany was, but a fully equal member of the alliance.

 

[BooNZ]

No. If anything it's much more vulnerable. The West Germans knew that a defense-in-depth, even if successful, would see a minimum of half their country overrun and savaged by the conventional fighting alone. So the West Germans advocated for a linear defense so as to stop a Soviet assault as close to the border as possible, thereby minimizing the damage to their own country from the fighting.

The problem is that such a linear defense had been attempted repeatedly during WW2 against precisely the kind of massed mechanized assault the Soviets were expected to mount... and failed, catastrophically. From a military perspective, it was nuts. Yet the politicians who led West Germany were adamant and NATO relented.

But my point in making that post is by that being able to force the other alliance members to adopt a militarily unsound deployment scheme shows that the West Germans had considerable political clout within NATO precisely because of their status as the designated battlefield for WW3. They were not merely an autonomous occupied state like East Germany was, but a fully equal member of the alliance.

Thank you for the clarification. We could argue about the extent of west Germany's independence, but for the purposes of this thread, I do not believe Britain would need to slavishly adhere to US policy. Nor do I think the US would necessarily be fundamentally opposed to Nazi Germany - to the extent a cold war is not an option.

 

[SunilTanna]

By 1941, the UK is in the position where they cannot seriously prosecute the war without US financial and other assistance.

The UK can in theory continue to fight Germany without US help, but in practice such a war will be a low level struggle by an increasingly impoverished and hungry island.

 

[Aber]

The US "had plans?" - oh f**k the Germans are sooo screwed...

And planes...

The genesis of the B-36 can be traced to early 1941, prior to the entry of the United States into World War II. At the time it appeared there was a very real chance that Britain might fall to the Nazi "Blitz", making a strategic bombing effort by the United States Army Air Corps (USAAC) against Germany impossible with the aircraft of the time.[2] The United States would need a new class of bomber which would reach Europe and return to bases in North America,[3] necessitating a combat range of at least 5,700 miles (9,200 km), the length of a Gander, Newfoundland–Berlin round trip.

 

[Dalriadan Archangel 21]

Read the excellent TL "Anglo-American Nazi War" by Calbear

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/the-anglo-american-nazi-war.140356/

 

[BooNZ]

And planes...

Piston engine bombers without a fighter escort v an advanced radar network and "obsolete" ME 262s - seriously?

 

[RodentRevolution]

Piston engine bombers without a fighter escort v an advanced radar network and "obsolete" ME 262s - seriously?

Two small questions, how are the Germans getting the Dowding style operantional management they so brilliantly failed to develop in OTL and how are the ME-262s gaining an extra 2,000 metres of ceiling and what would their actual performance at that altitude be like?

 

[Aber]

Piston engine bombers without a fighter escort v an advanced radar network and "obsolete" ME 262s - seriously?

It has the advantage of height; service ceiling of Me 262 is listed as less than 40,000 ft

The wing area permitted cruising altitudes well above the operating ceiling of any 1940s-era operational piston and jet-turbine fighters. Most versions of the B-36 could cruise at over 40,000 feet (12,000 m).[18] B-36 mission logs commonly recorded mock attacks against U.S. cities while flying at 49,000 feet (15,000 m).[citation needed] In 1954, the turrets and other nonessential equipment were removed (not entirely unlike the earlier Silverplate program for the atomic bomb-carrying "specialist" B-29s) that resulted in a "featherweight" configuration believed to have resulted in a top speed of 423 miles per hour (681 km/h),[19] and cruise at 50,000 feet (15,000 m) and dash at over 55,000 feet (17,000 m), perhaps even higher.[20]

The large wing area and the option of starting the four jet engines supplementing the piston engines in later versions gave the B-36 a wide margin between stall speed (VS) and maximum speed (Vmax) at these altitudes. This made the B-36 more maneuverable at high altitude than the USAF jet interceptors of the day, which either could not fly above 40,000 ft (12,000 m), or if they did, were likely to stall out when trying to maneuver or fire their guns.

 

[BooNZ]

Two small questions, how are the Germans getting the Dowding style operantional management they so brilliantly failed to develop in OTL and how are the ME-262s gaining an extra 2,000 metres of ceiling and what would their actual performance at that altitude be like?

It would take several hours for a B36 to cross the Atlantic - then cross nominally neutral territories - even Thomas1195 would struggle to screw that up

The ME 262 entered service 2 years before the first ever flight of a B36 - I also understand the OTL German jet engine development was hampered by access to various scarce materials that might now be accessible. Otherwise alternatives in that timeframe include the B&V 155 or Gothas.

It has the advantage of height; service ceiling of Me 262 is listed as less than 40,000 ft

Refer above

 

[avernite]

I think the bigger strike against the B36 is that it flies so high, it'll have serious issues hitting a target the size of the Ruhr, let alone anything more specific.

As for Barbarossa succeeding leading to anything, it's still important to know WHEN it succeeds. If it succeeds by AUgust, it's a different story entirely than if it succeeds in early 1942 - after all, if Barbarossa is closed off before Pearl Harbor happens, it might both butterfly Pearl Harbor, and, it cannot feature too prominently in a US desire or not to pursue war with Germany.

I don't believe Roosevelt would go 'Germany just declared war on us, let's not do anything about it because they defeated the Soviets half a year ago', but he might go 'fighting Germany seemed like an idea, but the Soviets just fell entirely and the British are running in the desert' in spring 1942.

 

[RodentRevolution]

It would take several hours for a B36 to cross the Atlantic - then cross nominally neutral territories - even Thomas1195 would struggle to screw that up

The ME 262 entered service 2 years before the first ever flight of a B36 - I also understand the OTL German jet engine development was hampered by access to various scarce materials that might now be accessible. Otherwise alternatives in that timeframe include the B&V 155 or Gothas.

Refer above

Except if that was the case then why post-1945 did the Soviets who had access both to German engines and trade with Brazil yet decide to go with British jet engines?

Again we still come to the problem that organisational issues are not magically resolved by radar.

Now I am not saying strategic bombing is a quick or sure solution but the B-36 and its ilk represent far more technological sophistication than you seem to give it credit for and the performance of the likely German jets is going to be somewhat reduced from the quoted speeds at lower altitudes and this assumes that the US do not stick jets on the B-36 in a manner similar to OTL.

There are also a few assumptions being made about the lack of fighter escort. After all mid-air refuelling is a thing. So are carriers and the Americans did produce piston engined carriers fighters than could function at 40,000 feet.

Now I understand that the very Nazi salute is a handwave but the British acting alone could likely both secure their islands and maintain their blockade which would have a rather large impact on matters. Which strongly suggests that if the US were in the war then the British would and could be too. However the idea that the Americans with their puny democratic science could not find ways to hurt the authoritarian brilliance of slave camp Europe under a Nazi handwave scenario is far fetched and it can quickly be seen normally calls for about four more handwaves.

 

[Aber]

The ME 262 entered service 2 years before the first ever flight of a B36 - I also understand the OTL German jet engine development was hampered by access to various scarce materials that might now be accessible. Otherwise alternatives in that timeframe include the B&V 155 or Gothas.

Even the Sabre has an service ceiling of less than 50,000 ft; intercepting the B-36 is not as easy as it looks. Bombing from that height will be inaccurate but that matters little with nuclear weapons.

The key point is that the US built it for a trans-Atlantic war without the benefit of European bases.

 

[merlin]

Whilst, there may be a percentage whereby German can win, this possible percentage chance of it happening IMHO falls if you try and call it in 1941! Even if Leningrad & Moscow falls in '41, it's not given that the Russia falls, only that they retreat further east. Hence, the earliest Russia could fall is late 1942, or more so 1943 - the current ATL on German wins Stalingrad is a good option. But even then, it's not certain.
So, the W. Allies are at war with Germany, not just Britain - North Africa in W. Allies control, the U-boat menace abated, RAF Bomber Command making progress over Germany, but the 8th Air force barely started.

 

[BooNZ]

Except if that was the case then why post-1945 did the Soviets who had access both to German engines and trade with Brazil yet decide to go with British jet engines?

As I said, I understand the OTL German development of jet engines was hampered by access to scarce materials, so in this scenario the German jet engines would be superior to OTL + multiple years development

Again we still come to the problem that organisational issues are not magically resolved by radar.

You have huge aircraft, flying thousands of miles over several hours at high altitude - it scarcely requires the services of David Copperfield. The BoB involved the use of first generation radar to intercept aircraft crossing the channel - in this scenario more advanced radar is available to intercept aircraft crossing an ocean.

Now I am not saying strategic bombing is a quick or sure solution but the B-36 and its ilk represent far more technological sophistication than you seem to give it credit for and the performance of the likely German jets is going to be somewhat reduced from the quoted speeds at lower altitudes and this assumes that the US do not stick jets on the B-36 in a manner similar to OTL.

The B36 is unlikely to trouble European skys until 1947, which is ample time for the Germans to invent a high altitude interceptor - OTL the Ta 152 entered service in January 1945 so "technological sophistication" - sorted two years ahead of schedule.

There are also a few assumptions being made about the lack of fighter escort. After all mid-air refuelling is a thing. So are carrier and the Americans did produce piston engined carriers fighters than could function at 40,000 feet.

So did the Germans - refer Ta 152

 

[BooNZ]

Even the Sabre has an service ceiling of less than 50,000 ft; intercepting the B-36 is not as easy as it looks. Bombing from that height will be inaccurate but that matters little with nuclear weapons.

The key point is that the US built it for a trans-Atlantic war without the benefit of European bases.

The service ceiling of the B36 is 6000ft lower than the Ta 152, which entered service four years earlier (OTL).

 

[RodentRevolution]

As I said, I understand the OTL German development of jet engines was hampered by access to scarce materials, so in this scenario the German jet engines would be superior to OTL + multiple years development

Access to materials was not the developmental problem and it was clearly not the developmental solution either, hence the switch.

You have huge aircraft, flying thousands of miles over several hours at high altitude - it scarcely requires the services of David Copperfield. The BoB involved the use of first generation radar to intercept aircraft crossing the channel - in this scenario more advanced radar is available to intercept aircraft crossing an ocean.

The development of very long range radar actually took quite a long time and required technologies that neither the Germans nor Soviets had access to in World War 2. Thus the actual level of warning would not in fact be hugely greater than the Battle of Britain or indeed the air battles over Germany. It also, as you are well aware I suspect, was not simply a case of having radar but how reports from those radar stations were conveyed and the information about the battle space managed. Something the Germans consistently lagged in.

The B36 is unlikely to trouble European skys until 1947, which is ample time for the Germans to invent a high altitude interceptor - OTL the Ta 152 entered service in January 1945 so "technological sophistication" - sorted two years ahead of schedule.

So did the Germans - refer Ta 152

Thus it becomes a tussle of industrial muscle, not sure the US would be shy of that in this era.

Not only that but we keep talking radar and radar includes ground mapping radar and airborne intercept radar. Since Tizard went over to the US prior to Barborossa we can assume the Americans still have the necessary start down the road in this scenario even in the extended scenario where Britain is handwaved into capitulation. This means that German interceptors rising to meet American bombers and their escorts could well find those escorts better co-ordinated than they are...not a given it would probably take the US a while to realise an early AWACs concept though a converted B-36 does have the hull space for the role.

Even without AWACs though ground mapping means much more accurate bombing even at altitude than people seem to be giving credit for. The US could certainly hit city sized targets reliably from altitude by the latter half of the the forties and from there is it is just a question of deploying enough bombs to get some exactly on target.

Industrial muscle is not something the US are shy of and thus the Germans are going to have to pour a lot of resources into their new generation
high altitude interceptors while of course keeping up to date with other threats.

 

[pattersonautobody]

Hence the B-36

Not ready until 47 for transcontinental flight, which by then the Germans have high altitude fighters which would shoot down unescorted mega-bombers like flies.