Open Door Policy ceases, China formally divided between European powers and Japan

Well if it happens around 1900 or so it's better for europe. I can see maybe Roosevelt never gets office, so the POD is a certain President not dying. So America is interested in world events, and markets but not in the manner only TR could pull off.

So the place is divided between France, England, Japan, Russia, and who ever elese wants a slice. I see Russia taking Manchuria, and the mongolian region. Britian could be the fastest to take the capital, and carve a nice section of the coast for themselves. France can just spread up from Vietnam, and Japan would get little slices here and there, but not much more. Germany would get into the game as well, and take what land they could.

There would still be a China to the West, and assuming that WWI is not butterflied away, then China could still be in the world. If WWI is somehow avoided or delayed, more of China seems to disappear, and expect a larger front in the war. A copy of German Southwest Africa with the small german force running throughout the region with larger forces going after them. An interesting side not eof such an event is Japan taking a larger par tin the war, and maybe getting some better respect during the Peace Talks cause of it.
 
Well if it happens around 1900 or so it's better for europe. I can see maybe Roosevelt never gets office, so the POD is a certain President not dying. So America is interested in world events, and markets but not in the manner only TR could pull off.

So the place is divided between France, England, Japan, Russia, and who ever elese wants a slice. I see Russia taking Manchuria, and the mongolian region. Britian could be the fastest to take the capital, and carve a nice section of the coast for themselves. France can just spread up from Vietnam, and Japan would get little slices here and there, but not much more. Germany would get into the game as well, and take what land they could.

There would still be a China to the West, and assuming that WWI is not butterflied away, then China could still be in the world. If WWI is somehow avoided or delayed, more of China seems to disappear, and expect a larger front in the war. A copy of German Southwest Africa with the small german force running throughout the region with larger forces going after them. An interesting side not eof such an event is Japan taking a larger par tin the war, and maybe getting some better respect during the Peace Talks cause of it.

fenwick

In terms of accepted sphere of influence I think Britain basically had the Yangtze valley, France the area to the south and Germany the Shantung province region. Manchuria would probably depend on whether the carve up occurred before or after the Russo-Japanese war and would probably trigger such a conflict, or a return engagement. Not sure who would end up with the Peking/Beijing region. Probably either Germany or the winner of the fight for Manchuria.

However difficult to see this happening. Would probably need a complete breakdown in the government of China and say prolonged attacks on westerns, say by an expanded Boxer rebellion to prompt the European powers to take this step.

If it did occur it could take quite a while to restore even limited order, although you might even see the Europeans, provided they ruled reasonably decently, welcomed by many as restorers of peace and security, at least for a short period of time. In the longer run however China's sheer size and its very strong sense of identity and superiority will cause continued and growing unrest I suspect.

You would probably see WWI either butterflied completely or at least delayed and possibly with a few powers switching sides. For instance with a prolonged conflict between Russia and Japan over possession of Manchuria - rather than just extensive influence - Britain would almost certainly have to choice between the two. Choosing Russian would probably prompt Japan into closer ties with Germany while sticking with Japan would make closer links with the French more difficult. I suspect the latter is more likely in which case Britain might sit out at least the 1st stages of a continental conflict.

Steve
 
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