So I was thinking what's the worst plausible outcome for the '42 Op. Torch. Please feel free to post your own.
My idea would be for a sortie by the Italian Navy (I know, I know...) against the Eastern Task Force, coupled with the 10 U-Boats in the Atlantic not being drawn off to chase after
SL 125 (where they sank 11 cargo ships and damaged another 2) and instead going after the Western Task Force .
Order of battle:
Italy
all 7 BBs would be operational at this time:
Littorio-class
Roma
Littorio
Vittorio Veneto
older classes
Caio Duilio
Andrea Doria
Conte di Cavour
Giulio Cesare
Allies
eastern task force (the one that's going to get attacked)
aircraft carriers
HMS Argus (18 fighters, therefor useless, knocked out by a bomb and forced to retire OTL)
HMS Avenger (15 fighters, therefor useless, sunk by 1 torpedo from a U-Boat OTL 5 days later)
HMS Victorious (36 aircraft, some Albacores, some Fulmar fighters)
3 cruisers
13 destroyers
3 submarines, 4 corvettes, 3 sloops, 4 minesweepers, 3 anti-aircraft ships, 11 infantry landing ships, 18 troop transports
central task force (the one that might come and help)
aircraft carriers
- HMS Furious (24 fighters and 9 Albacore bombers)
- HMS Biter (15 aircraft, but temporarily out of action due to a Sea Hurricane crashing into her bridge, therefor useless)
- HMS Dasher (15 fighters, therefor useless)
battleships
HMS Rodney
2 cruisers
13 destroyers, 6 corvettes, 2 sailboats, 8 minesweepers, 15 infantry landing craft, 3 tankers, anti-aircraft ships
There's also the Western Task Force, with the USS Ranger and 4 smaller carriers, as well as 3 battleships, 3 heavy cruisers, 3 light cruisers, 41 destroyers, 4 submarines, 8 minesweepers and 23 landing craft for the infantry, but they may as well be on the far side of the Moon, given their distance to Eastern Task Force.
Let's also throw in the USS Ranger being sunk by a U-Boat on Day 1, Adm. Darlan procrastinating on ordering a surrender and US gen. Mark Clark (who was actually on shore conducting negotiations) getting captured and being put on the first plane towards Europe.
So, does Eisenhower order Eastern, and maybe also Central Task Force to withdraw, if the Italian BBs sortie?