IIRC, the Germans assumed that the Torch convoys were heading towards Malta or perhaps intended to land behind Rommel's lines in Libya. ....
That was one thought. Ultimately Hitler & his staff went with the disinformation fed them via the Double Cross system & concluded the target was Sardinia. That was late on the 4th or early on the 5th Nov when the Eastern & Center TF passed Gibraltar & the German observers on the Spanish coast. However the Germans did not control naval operations in the Med. Those were the Italians baliwick. While the Germans could influence strategy & operations the Italians held the weight in naval and air power. Commando Supremo did judge correctly the target was French north Africa, but were reluctant to deploy significant force west wards beyond fighter cover.
There was also a problem of reaction time. The reports of the fleets passing into the Med came a bit late for redeploying submarines to the Algerian coast and air wings to western Sicily and Sardinia. As it was Axis bombers later based in Sardinia could raid the eastern Algerian ports. They did sink & damage a few cargo ships and a French cruiser. They also took losses from the Allied interceptors based to cover the ports.
Unlike with the Pedestal operation the Axis got caught pants down with Torch. Perhaps, had the Italians been a bit more on the ball, or the French betrayed the operation the Italian subs & torpedo boats could have been redeployed in time. As I understand there were 130 Axis aircraft operational on Sardinia on 6th November. A weeks notice might have allowed that to be doubled or tripled. The Axis bombers would still have been operating beyond the limits of fighter escort, but 200+ bombers would have their effect.