In Southern France the Crusade was over bar the shouting, the conclusion had taken so long because King Philip II had withdrawn troops to provide aid to Prince Louis, later King Louis VIII, who had been invited to invade England [before the Barons rescinded that offer after the death of King John]. Now Louis IX [in his minority] was still consolidating his gains of Normandy, Maine & Anjou.
Henry III of England, meanwhile, was just out of his majority and was casting eyes on France to re-claim his ancestral possessions. His campaign in Brittany petered out in the English possessions in Gascony and a truce with France.
Whilst the Holy Roman Empire was [relatively] quiet a power struggle with the Pope continued and resulted in Fredrick's excommunication by Pope Gregory IX for failing to honour his crusading pledge. Frederick eventually sailed from Brindisi. The Pope regarded that action as a provocation, since, as an excommunicate, Frederick was technically not capable of conducting a Crusade, and he excommunicated the Emperor a second time. Frederick reached Acre in September. Local authorities and most military orders refused him help. The Crusading army was therefore a meagre force so Frederick negotiated a treaty resulting in the restitution of Jerusalem [along with other towns plus a small coastal strip] as the Kingdom of Jerusalem. The crusade ended in a truce and in Frederick's coronation as King of Jerusalem.
Frederick was not only the Holy Roman Emperor but also King, in his own right, of Sicily [kept separate from the Empire at the Pope’s insistence]. During Frederick's stay in the Holy Land, his regent, Rainald of Spoleto, had attacked the Marche. Gregory IX recruited an army under John of Brienne and invaded Southern Italy.
Frederick arrived at Brindisi and quickly recovered the lost territories but avoided crossing the boundaries with the Papal States. The war came to an end with the Treaty of Ceprano.
In the Baltic both Danish [failed] and Swedish Crusades had taken place in Finland. On the southern coast the Brotherhood of the Sword [aka the Livonian Order] had established at Riga early in the century and was making great progress, although an arrangement for re-enforcements had resulted in the Danish conquest of Estonia. Further west the Duke of Masovia had gifted Culmerland to the Teutonic Knights in return for their assistance. The Masovian attempt to conquer the pagan Prussians was not going well but in the few years they had been there progress had been made.
Masovia was part of Poland. In the previous century Bolesław III divided Poland among his sons. The lands of Krakow, the capital, became the Seniorate in a system similar to that which had been used by the Rus for centuries. Each member of the Piast ruling family could progress up the “ladder” of seniority. A vacancy would be filled by the rung below. Naturally this system caused in-fighting and a general fragmentation but all still considered themselves a part of the Kingdom.
Hungary held Bosnia as virtual vassals, the Bogomil Heresy giving them a lever. The heresy was condemned by both Catholic and Orthodox Churches.
Serbia, meanwhile, was seen as a client of the Despotate of Epirus because of the marriage of Stefan I to Eudokia, the daughter of Theodore of Epirus.
Mindaugas of Lithuania, although still Pagan, was well along the path of unifying the country.
The Rus were Orthodox in Religion and, as such, fair game for the crusaders in the Baltic. Polotsk and Novgorod had already fought against the Brotherhood and Denmark, supporting their onetime enemies, the pagan tribes of Latvia.
In the south Kiev, Galich-Volyn and the Cuman Tribes had recently been devastated by the scouting Tuman of the Mongol forces which were now en-route back to Samarkand via the Volga Bulgars.
The recent past had been eventful in the Balkans and Greece. The Fourth Crusade, suborned by Venice, attacked the Byzantine Empire, capturing Constantinople and using this base creating the Latin Empire and its vassals, the Duchies of Athens, Morea and the Kingdom of Thessalonika. Three claimants to the legacy of Byzantium, the Empires of Trebizond, Epirus and Nicaea fought against them, each other and the Sultanate of Rum. One or the other were often alied with the Bulgarian Empire of Ivan Assen II.
Epirus was making the most progress and, having captured Larissa and Thessalonika, were approaching Constantinople when the decision was made to attack Bulgaria first as they were threatening to take the city first. This was a mistake and, by the end of the year Bulgaria had decicively defeated the Epirotes and were setting up vassal states such as Thessalonika to control their new territory. Hungary is very concerned about the new powerhouse to their south.
This map is my starting point, it shows Europe in 1230; My question is- What happens if Ögedei dies in 1247 instead of 1241?
I'm open to ideas.