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Inspired by a recent film I couldn't resist thinking about this PoD:

France has fallen, exactly as in OTL and across the Channel the British in a mix of panic and strategic stubbornness prepare for the coming onslaught.

But nothing happens - only blue sky!

In Berlin sketches for a cross Channel operation had been presented, but simultaneously (and here is the PoD) with reliable intelligence reports on the actual strength of the Red Army and Air Force and the ongoing plan to expand the Red Army to 500 Divisions by mid 1942.

In Berlin the general conclusion is:

The door might be tougher to kick in and the building will not collapse as easily as we thought, but for each day we wait it will be more difficult - all resources must be focused on invading SU by mid 1941 and bringing the campaign to a conclusion before the end of 1941. It is discussed if a campaign should be planned into 1942, but it is agreed it is better to ignore the British in 1940-41 and focus all resources on SU, and then be ready to face the British and their possible allies by 1942.

The first challenge come from a German ally, as the Italians are in serious trouble vs. the British in North and East Africa in late 1940 (as in OTL). It is discussed to deploy an armoured Corps in N. Africa but it isn't considdered worth the effort, as the British controlling N. Africa is of insignificant importance to Germany in all foreseeable future. It would of course be important to the Italians and Vichy French, and not at least the Japanese, as the British now can count on a much shorter supply route to the Far East - and idle resources to keep a presence there.

The Vichy French and Italians are told to shut up and the Japanese are sent a box of chocolate and a "Good luck" card.

In NW Europe RAF seriously try to be a pain in the butt, fighter sweeps and occasional bomber attacks, but in general they take more losses than they give (as OTL).

The first serious challenge come from Mussolini again. His "it will be a walk in the park" invasion of Greece in spring of 1941 run ito serious trouble, and next British tropps are in Greece and the Yugoslavs are disobidient. In Berlin it is agreed that challenges on the European continent can't be ignored and Barbarossa is postponed until June and German troops sent to Yugoslavia and Greece. After a short but ferocious campaign both are under control (as OTL).

So by June 1941 the Wehrmacht is ready to start Barbarossa, but with extra resources compared to OTL. In my best judgement (but please challenge me) a "ignore Britain stratgey" should bring along something equivalent to an extra army, an extra Panzer Corps and about 1000 aircraft incl. the backup to operate them. I base that on the often quoted German claim that operating a Corps in N. Africa cost as much as operating an army in Russia and on the main part of the losses taken in OTL BoB and N.Africa until mid 1941 instead being available for Barbarossa.

IMHO intelligence like the above should have lead to Germany going on full war economy ASAP, but let us not have the trees grow into hell that easy and instead try a more moderate PoD.


Will the PoD make a significant difference and what?

Not just on the general outcome of Barbarossa, but am I right in concluding that the British safely could be ignored until 1942? In this ATL I have the Uboats go as OTL, but it remains open if a safely supplied Britain would be dangerous to Germany before 1942? If Berlin I would start building the Uboats ASAP, they will be needed in 1942, but seriously considder keeping them home for now.
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