[ONGOING] What REALLY would have happened if the Ottomans won the siege of Vienna 1529

[isabella]

Never knew the aim of the Vienna Campaign. Seeing as the Ottomans were more interested in consolidating their rule in Hungary rather than expanding into Germany, I'd say the immediate aftermath of a successful siege is a sack of the city.

Medium term, The Habsburgs have lost most of their credibility as rulers of the Holy Roman Empire and the authority of the same is severely weakened. The Spanish Habsburgs will probably become the more prominent branch, perhaps hanging their Austrian cousins out to dry and marrying outside of the family to secure their borders and hereditary holdings.

We do not have yet two definite branches and the both Karl and Ferdinand are to blame for the failure to secure the elective crown of Hungary for Ferdinand and the loss of Vienna and the prestige of Holy Emperor Karl is wounded as Ferdinand right now is not yet King of the Romans (but will became that like OTL as the Imperial Vicar and King Elector of Bohemia Ferdinand was much more liked than his brother by the German princes who wanted him and not the Spanish Felipe as heir of Karl).
Pretty likely who Karl (and the Spanish branch) will have all the damages while Ferdinand and the Austrian branch will benefit from it (specially if Maria of Spain inherited the Burgundian lands from her father... Austria, Bohemia, Burgundy/Netherlands and the Imperial Crown are a much better package than OTL who would likely see the HRE centralized under the Habsburgs in some generations so we would have a big Germany who include Austria, Bohemia and Benelux)...
The Ottomans can not hold Vienna for too much time so the Habsburg will have it back at the latest in few years...

 

[Some Bloke]

Please tell me Ferdinand has a grandson named Sigmar ITTL. :-D

 

[AdamNeuser]

We do not have yet two definite branches and the both Karl and Ferdinand are to blame for the failure to secure the elective crown of Hungary for Ferdinand and the loss of Vienna and the prestige of Holy Emperor Karl is wounded as Ferdinand right now is not yet King of the Romans (but will became that like OTL as the Imperial Vicar and King Elector of Bohemia Ferdinand was much more liked than his brother by the German princes who wanted him and not the Spanish Felipe as heir of Karl).
Pretty likely who Karl (and the Spanish branch) will have all the damages while Ferdinand and the Austrian branch will benefit from it (specially if Maria of Spain inherited the Burgundian lands from her father... Austria, Bohemia, Burgundy/Netherlands and the Imperial Crown are a much better package than OTL who would likely see the HRE centralized under the Habsburgs in some generations so we would have a big Germany who include Austria, Bohemia and Benelux)...
The Ottomans can not hold Vienna for too much time so the Habsburg will have it back at the latest in few years...

Yeah I can’t imagine the Ottomans seeing much diplomatic or logistical benefit in maintaining a permanent garrison in Vienna. I think in terms of the immediate consequences would be a looting of the city and the gradual consolidation of the Hungarian territories. If Suleiman sees it to be more feasible he might just vassalise Hungary but I’m not too sure about this.

The loss of the potential of the Hungarian crown as well as the demonstration of the Ottoman ability to directly and successfully strike at a Hapsburg core city would do wonders for their propaganda and be a massive blow of prestige for the Hapsburgs in Austria. I don’t know if it would be enough to weaken their rule over Germany but in the long run, were Royal Hungary to remain in ottoman hands it would put them in a sufficiently stronger position in comparison throughout the 16th century.

 

[isabella]

Yeah I can’t imagine the Ottomans seeing much diplomatic or logistical benefit in maintaining a permanent garrison in Vienna. I think in terms of the immediate consequences would be a looting of the city and the gradual consolidation of the Hungarian territories. If Suleiman sees it to be more feasible he might just vassalise Hungary but I’m not too sure about this.

The loss of the potential of the Hungarian crown as well as the demonstration of the Ottoman ability to directly and successfully strike at a Hapsburg core city would do wonders for their propaganda and be a massive blow of prestige for the Hapsburgs in Austria. I don’t know if it would be enough to weaken their rule over Germany but in the long run, were Royal Hungary to remain in ottoman hands it would put them in a sufficiently stronger position in comparison throughout the 16th century.

Again, the blow on prestige will go more on Emperor Karl than Ferdinand and in the long run would likely made the Austrian Habsburgs more powerful than OTL.

 

[alexmilman]

The Ottomans taking Vienna would be a major crisis for the Habsburg and would force them to compromise earlier with the Lutherans, including the ones in their own domains. If Charles V have to compromise this early instead of late in his reign, it would be great as he avoid spending his entire life fighting them.

The almost definite short term result would be the imperial Sejm voting money for the anti-Ottoman campaign. Hungary was more or less Hapsburgs private concern but the Ottomans in the HRE would be a seriously different issue. The result may or may not be a liberation of Vienna but Charles would strengthen his position within the HRE as the only possible unifying factor.

As far as the Protestants are involved, his reign was not one big fighting against them because situation was quite complicated. Most of the landsknehts fighting in his armies were Protestants (led by Catholic Frundsberg) and Maurice of Saxony was a Protestant, which did not prevent him from fighting against the Schmalkaldic League and later to side with another Catholic, Henry II, against Charles just to change the sides again () ending up leading the imperial army into Hungary against the Ottomans besieging Eger (1552).

But I agree with your point that more pressing situation on the "Eastern front" could easily make Charles more accommodating to the Protestants.

What seems to be completely missing from the picture is France but in August of 1529 Treaty of Cambrai had been signed removing France from the League of Cognac and leaving Charles without the major enemies (the Pope gave up soon afterwards).

 

[Der]

A new book is coming out by Raymond Khoury called 'Empire of Lies' (or the Ottoman Secret in Europe).

It delves into just such a scenario, from what I've read it's alternative history like The Man in the High Castle, but instead of Nazis taking over Europe, it's the Ottomans who succeeded at Vienna in 1683. They basically conquer Europe and there's talk of war against the 'Christian Republic of America'. Fascinating premise.

But yeah, Vienna for the Ottomans and for Suleiman specifically was The Golden Apple right? His way of emulating his great-grandfather Mehmet II, his own personal Constantinople and path to glory. For the Ottomans of that day, it was Vienna today, Rome tomorrow, they certainly had the Navy and military manpower, and most importantly, the leadership and Will to take on all Europe. So yeah, after Vienna, Suleiman would have extended his borders to the Rhine to link up with his ally, the Kingdom of France. Together they would have divided up the Habsburg lands.

 

[kasumigenx]

The Ottomans could help the Bruneians in the Philippines.

 

[AdamNeuser]

The Ottomans could help the Bruneians in the Philippines.

They could, but why would Vienna have allowed them to do this?

 

[AdamNeuser]

A new book is coming out by Raymond Khoury called 'Empire of Lies' (or the Ottoman Secret in Europe).

It delves into just such a scenario, from what I've read it's alternative history like The Man in the High Castle, but instead of Nazis taking over Europe, it's the Ottomans who succeeded at Vienna in 1683. They basically conquer Europe and there's talk of war against the 'Christian Republic of America'. Fascinating premise.

But yeah, Vienna for the Ottomans and for Suleiman specifically was The Golden Apple right? His way of emulating his great-grandfather Mehmet II, his own personal Constantinople and path to glory. For the Ottomans of that day, it was Vienna today, Rome tomorrow, they certainly had the Navy and military manpower, and most importantly, the leadership and Will to take on all Europe. So yeah, after Vienna, Suleiman would have extended his borders to the Rhine to link up with his ally, the Kingdom of France. Together they would have divided up the Habsburg lands.

Referencing alternate history books for an accurate understanding of this period isn’t a very good idea. It’s why historians don’t reference books like the man in the high castle in order to understand the aims of the German high command in the event of an axis victory. Because they’re usually designed for telling an interesting fictional story, and not actual or potential history.

 

[AdamNeuser]

The almost definite short term result would be the imperial Sejm voting money for the anti-Ottoman campaign. Hungary was more or less Hapsburgs private concern but the Ottomans in the HRE would be a seriously different issue. The result may or may not be a liberation of Vienna but Charles would strengthen his position within the HRE as the only possible unifying factor.

As far as the Protestants are involved, his reign was not one big fighting against them because situation was quite complicated. Most of the landsknehts fighting in his armies were Protestants (led by Catholic Frundsberg) and Maurice of Saxony was a Protestant, which did not prevent him from fighting against the Schmalkaldic League and later to side with another Catholic, Henry II, against Charles just to change the sides again () ending up leading the imperial army into Hungary against the Ottomans besieging Eger (1552).

But I agree with your point that more pressing situation on the "Eastern front" could easily make Charles more accommodating to the Protestants.

What seems to be completely missing from the picture is France but in August of 1529 Treaty of Cambrai had been signed removing France from the League of Cognac and leaving Charles without the major enemies (the Pope gave up soon afterwards).

Good point. I guess it would also depend on what the Ottomans plan on doing. In 1529 Suleiman hadn’t yet consolidated his rule over Hungary. So if after occupying Vienna, it was looted and then his armies pushed further which I don’t think is particularly likely then it would likely become more than just a Hapsburg problem because he’d be pushing into core German territory.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Good point. I guess it would also depend on what the Ottomans plan on doing. In 1529 Suleiman hadn’t yet consolidated his rule over Hungary. So if after occupying Vienna, it was looted and then his armies pushed further which I don’t think is particularly likely then it would likely become more than just a Hapsburg problem because he’d be pushing into core German territory.

Wouldn't it be regarded as an imperial problem (i.e. concerning all the princes of the empire), rather than just a Habsburg problem anyway? Ottoman Hungary shares a border with Bohemia and Austria. But it is likely that the German princes do realize that while this means that they [the Ottomans, the Protestants] have Karl V on the ropes, Karl/Habsburgs are also the last line of defense between them [the Germans] and the Ottomans. They might not like or agree with Karl, but if Karl/Ferdinand is "smart" he'll play up the threat of Ottomans to get the Germans to rally behind him (i.e. like the Dutch revolt that said "rather Turk than Papist", in this case, reversed as "rather a Papist than a Turk").

The Protestants might demand an earlier "Augsburg" in exchange for assisting Karl to send Suleiman packing. And since the splits of Calvinism/Lutheranism (Calvin only officially broke with Rome in 1530) haven't riven the Protestants yet, it may also be a different "confession" to OTL (where although Calvinism wasn't granted an equal status to Lutheranism, the Catholic bloc could play the two main types of Protestant rulers off against one another). Karl V could also use it as a means of forcing the pope to call an earlier "council of Trent", by pointing out the "humiliating" concessions he has had to make to the Protestants because the pope will not "reform" the church. Etc etc

 

[isabella]

Wouldn't it be regarded as an imperial problem (i.e. concerning all the princes of the empire), rather than just a Habsburg problem anyway? Ottoman Hungary shares a border with Bohemia and Austria. But it is likely that the German princes do realize that while this means that they [the Ottomans, the Protestants] have Karl V on the ropes, Karl/Habsburgs are also the last line of defense between them [the Germans] and the Ottomans. They might not like or agree with Karl, but if Karl/Ferdinand is "smart" he'll play up the threat of Ottomans to get the Germans to rally behind him (i.e. like the Dutch revolt that said "rather Turk than Papist", in this case, reversed as "rather a Papist than a Turk").

The Protestants might demand an earlier "Augsburg" in exchange for assisting Karl to send Suleiman packing. And since the splits of Calvinism/Lutheranism (Calvin only officially broke with Rome in 1530) haven't riven the Protestants yet, it may also be a different "confession" to OTL (where although Calvinism wasn't granted an equal status to Lutheranism, the Catholic bloc could play the two main types of Protestant rulers off against one another). Karl V could also use it as a means of forcing the pope to call an earlier "council of Trent", by pointing out the "humiliating" concessions he has had to make to the Protestants because the pope will not "reform" the church. Etc etc

Well the ruler in danger is Ferdinand, who the smarter and more liked in Germany of the two brothers... If Karl can understand the situation and being made amenable to compromise then we can have a much earlier Catholic/Protestant settlement. Since Karl will be also crowned Holy Roman Emperor by the Pope in this timeframe is likely who the settlement will include the election of Ferdinand of Austria as King of the Romans (because the last thing who the Prince Electors want is risking to be in future in a situation in which they would be forced to elect Karl’s little Spanish brat as King of the Romans. Ferdinand is there in Germany, all his lands are in the Holy Roman Empire, he is the one with which they usually talk and is one of them as Elector of Bohemia)

 

[AdamNeuser]

Wouldn't it be regarded as an imperial problem (i.e. concerning all the princes of the empire), rather than just a Habsburg problem anyway? Ottoman Hungary shares a border with Bohemia and Austria. But it is likely that the German princes do realize that while this means that they [the Ottomans, the Protestants] have Karl V on the ropes, Karl/Habsburgs are also the last line of defense between them [the Germans] and the Ottomans. They might not like or agree with Karl, but if Karl/Ferdinand is "smart" he'll play up the threat of Ottomans to get the Germans to rally behind him (i.e. like the Dutch revolt that said "rather Turk than Papist", in this case, reversed as "rather a Papist than a Turk").

The Protestants might demand an earlier "Augsburg" in exchange for assisting Karl to send Suleiman packing. And since the splits of Calvinism/Lutheranism (Calvin only officially broke with Rome in 1530) haven't riven the Protestants yet, it may also be a different "confession" to OTL (where although Calvinism wasn't granted an equal status to Lutheranism, the Catholic bloc could play the two main types of Protestant rulers off against one another). Karl V could also use it as a means of forcing the pope to call an earlier "council of Trent", by pointing out the "humiliating" concessions he has had to make to the Protestants because the pope will not "reform" the church. Etc etc

I guess it depends on how much of a threat the German princes consider the Ottomans to be at this point. If Suleiman doesn't push on into Imperial territories and simply consolidates his rule over Hungary then it might be more difficult for Charles/Ferdinand to convince the other princes of the existential threat that the Ottomans supposedly pose. However yes, you are correct that it will be an imperial problem more than just a hapsburg one. I don't know if he'd be as successful as to actually convince the Dutch that the Ottoman Empire on the other side of Europe poses more of a threat to them than the Spanish who they were at war with from 1568 but it would definitely change the balance of power in Europe heavily.

According to Kemal H. Karpat, while the Turks had a reputation for cruelty, they were also perceived as having religious tolerance within their dominions, whereas the King of Spain did not tolerate the Protestant faith. At one point, a letter was sent from Suleiman the Magnificent to the "Lutherans" in Flanders, claiming that he felt close to them, "since they did not worship idols, believed in one God and fought against the Pope and Emperor"

 

[isabella]

I guess it depends on how much of a threat the German princes consider the Ottomans to be at this point. If Suleiman doesn't push on into Imperial territories and simply consolidates his rule over Hungary then it might be more difficult for Charles/Ferdinand to convince the other princes of the existential threat that the Ottomans supposedly pose. However yes, you are correct that it will be an imperial problem more than just a hapsburg one. I don't know if he'd be as successful as to actually convince the Dutch that the Ottoman Empire on the other side of Europe poses more of a threat to them than the Spanish who they were at war with from 1568 but it would definitely change the balance of power in Europe heavily.

According to Kemal H. Karpat, while the Turks had a reputation for cruelty, they were also perceived as having religious tolerance within their dominions, whereas the King of Spain did not tolerate the Protestant faith. At one point, a letter was sent from Suleiman the Magnificent to the "Lutherans" in Flanders, claiming that he felt close to them, "since they did not worship idols, believed in one God and fought against the Pope and Emperor"

Well this kind of letter can work with the Dutch not with the German princes...
Ottomans with full control of Hungary is bad news for everyone not only Austria-Bohemia and Poland

 

[alexmilman]

I guess it depends on how much of a threat the German princes consider the Ottomans to be at this point.

The answer seems obvious: when Soleiman launched second campaign against Vienna in 1532 (it stalled at Guns) Charles raised an army of 80,000. The number could be somewhat exaggerated but an army of a comparable size could not be raised without broad imperial participation.

 

[AdamNeuser]

Well this kind of letter can work with the Dutch not with the German princes...
Ottomans with full control of Hungary is bad news for everyone not only Austria-Bohemia and Poland

For sure, the situation was completely different for most german princes since unlike the dutch they weren't in as much conflict with the Spanish Empire. Another factor that comes into play is whether following a successful siege on Vienna, Suleiman actually does annex all of Hungary or vassalises it. Some historians suggest that the annexation only began in 1541 once it became clear to him that the Hungarians wouldn't be able to resist the Hapsburgs and/or expel them from upper Hungary on their own.

I think the result of this would also be an important factor to consider in how much of a threat the ottomans are perceived to be.

 

[isabella]

For sure, the situation was completely different for most german princes since unlike the dutch they weren't in as much conflict with the Spanish Empire. Another factor that comes into play is whether following a successful siege on Vienna, Suleiman actually does annex all of Hungary or vassalises it. Some historians suggest that the annexation only began in 1541 once it became clear to him that the Hungarians wouldn't be able to resist the Hapsburgs and/or expel them from upper Hungary on their own.

I think the result of this would also be an important factor to consider in how much of a threat the ottomans are perceived to be.

The Ottomans will be always considered a big threat by the German princes... The French allied more than once to the Ottomans and maybe the Dutch can try the same but not the German princes

 

[AdamNeuser]

The Ottomans will be always considered a big threat by the German princes... The French allied more than once to the Ottomans and maybe the Dutch can try the same but not the German princes

True. I guess it would also depend on the relations between the princes and the emperor but I think we've mostly covered what we can regarding how such an event would impact the situation in Germany. What other fronts do you think are worth exploring in the long term?

 

[isabella]

True. I guess it would also depend on the relations between the princes and the emperor but I think we've mostly covered what we can regarding how such an event would impact the situation in Germany. What other fronts do you think are worth exploring in the long term?

Poland, Italy (specially Rome, Venice and Malta), Spain and Portugal.
Russia also...

Here is most likely who France also will know better than being too friendly or allying with the Ottomans...
For the Dutch I am pretty sure who at this point we can prevent the reign of Mary I in England so Karl will leave the Netherlands to Maria instead of Philip (in OTL he was long undecided between them before Philip’s English wedding) and that will keep Burgundy/Netherlands as an united and loyal Habsburg domain.

 

[alexmilman]

Poland, Italy (specially Rome, Venice and Malta), Spain and Portugal.
Russia also...

Here is most likely who France also will know better than being too friendly or allying with the Ottomans...
For the Dutch I am pretty sure who at this point we can prevent the reign of Mary I in England so Karl will leave the Netherlands to Maria instead of Philip (in OTL he was long undecided between them before Philip’s English wedding) and that will keep Burgundy/Netherlands as an united and loyal Habsburg domain.

Not Russia: on the map dark red is Muscovite state of this period. No contact with the Ottomans