One-Term Reagan

Bomster

Banned
Throughout President Reagan’s first term the economy was struggling and still hadn’t recovered from the malaise of the 70’s, sharply plumeting from 1981-1983 and causing massive losses for the GOP during the 1982 midterms and causing Reagan’s favorability rating to fall to a historic 35%! Is it possible that this, along with doubts about his mental health, could have knocked Reagan out of office, and if so how would he be viewed today and what would be the impact on modern American politics?
 
IMO the only way Reagan could have lost is if a) the economy didn't improve and b) the Democrats had put up a strong challenger. But by 1984 the economy was improving and the Dems made a historic mistake in nominating Mondale. Perhaps a useful POD would have Reagan replace Volcker as Fed Chairman with someone whose actions stymie the recovery. Butterflies lead to Hart winning the Democratic nomination. Hart could beat Reagan if the economy doesn't recover (or doesn't recover enough). But if the economy recovers by election day and Hart shows the same political ineptitude he demonstrated in OTL, then Reagan wins.
 
IMO the only way Reagan could have lost is if a) the economy didn't improve and b) the Democrats had put up a strong challenger. But by 1984 the economy was improving and the Dems made a historic mistake in nominating Mondale. Perhaps a useful POD would have Reagan replace Volcker as Fed Chairman with someone whose actions stymie the recovery. Butterflies lead to Hart winning the Democratic nomination. Hart could beat Reagan if the economy doesn't recover (or doesn't recover enough). But if the economy recovers by election day and Hart shows the same political ineptitude he demonstrated in OTL, then Reagan wins.

The Mondale-Ferraro ticket struck a lot of people as the Dems saying “we’re fucked so let’s curry some favor among voters.” If they were playing to win, Hart is a good choice, and perhaps John Glenn as his VP.

Such a ticket would have to be predicated on the economy still being shitty and people deciding that supply side economics is a load of shit. And if Hart can’t turn it around, candidates are either going to be super-mainstream and in a box for years to come or they’re going to be completely out there (like if Trump ran in 1988.)
 
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