One Second to Midnight: World War III, 1986

So do I and I see what you mean, heck I'll admit that Border guard song is awesome.

I was the first youtuber to make a clip of it with english subs :3

check it:


There is a quote from a west German general from the time of unification saying that the last german army had died, sadly I don't know who he was or the exact words of the quote
 
Both sides had general plans that could roughly be drawn into two groups, offensive and defensive. Entire books could be written covering these various plans (and several have, especially the excellent Plan 9 by John Smith) but the one most crucial to both NATO and the Warsaw Pact in the early days is known today as “Seven Days to the River Rhine.” Much like the infamous Schlieffen plan of the first world war, the Seven Days focused on achieving a quick victory through overrunning the initial defensive lines, surrounding troop concentrations, and seizing important political, industrial, and strategic assets that would force a capitulation of NATO. The specifics of the original plan involved what basically amounted to a counterstrike against NATO after a nuclear attack against Poland, with the Soviets responding as such with nuclear strikes as they advance across Europe. It was a modified version of this plan that would end up being employed in the early days of the Third World War, informed by intelligence from inside West Germany and other NATO nations. Warsaw Pact planning counted heavily on several factors – surprise, overwhelming force, and speed. It was very much an attitude informed by the balance of power within Europe, where the majority of NATO’s manpower was overseas at any given time, and away from where the initial strikes would take place. A quick, decisive strike was required to eliminate influence from the areas where the Soviets and their puppet states were lacking, namely control of the seas.

NATO went through several doctrines and war plans leading up to the war, but crucial towards the conduct of the war and possibly the survival of the human species was the shift away from nuclear retaliation on an operational and tactical level, towards a trust that the conventional forces could conduct an effective defense of Western Europe. While most NATO defensive plans were simple in nature and had more to do with the distribution of forces in response to attack, along with counterattacks back to the border and perhaps beyond. To NATO, doctrine would be what made the difference in the end, not some grand strategic plan for quick victory. The focus had by 1986 shifted away from the idea of an active defense, to more of an elastic one. Called ‘AirLand Battle’ by its’ proponents in the US military and NATO command structures, it was intended to counter the lack of direct ability of NATO fight a war of attrition in the crucial opening stages of the war, and allow the outnumbered initial defenders to hopefully defeat larger forces without sustaining unacceptably large amounts of casualties. NATO forces would not stand toe to toe for long periods of time, instead using the recent advances in technology like ‘Smart Bombs’ along with maneuver warfare to take out enemy command and supply assets, hopefully allowing them to regain the tactical advantage as the Warsaw Pact offensive was slowed down. Buying time was crucial to NATO planners. The US and Canada would need to ship forces across the Atlantic, along with supplies for not only their own forces, but also for allies as well. Time was the crucial aspect for everyone’s plans, and whoever made the first move set the time schedule.

The Soviets were the first to blink. The young and new Gorbachev, never very well liked among the proponents of the Brezhnev doctrine or among party hardliners, attempted to put feelers out towards the United States to try and ease the tension caused by the Black Sea Incident, along with another arms restriction conference. This was a show of conciliation and weakness his enemies could not tolerate. On March 24th, 1986 Gorbachev was hustled into a car by KGB agents loyal to his political enemies, and took to a location outside the capital. There, a quick trial was held, the allegations falsified and no defense allowed. He was convicted for crimes against the people and party, and sentenced to death by firing squad. His apocryphal last words were apparently delivered with a cold calm to the KGB agent who blindfolded him. “I hope you enjoy midnight. I won’t get to see it.” Gorbachev was right. He was executed at 11:59 PM, in secret. His final resting place is still unknown.

At the head of this coup was a triumvirate consisting of three fellow politburo members: Sergey Sokolov, Volodymyr Shcherbytsky, and Heydar Aliyev. All three were members of the political old guard, and had seized the opportunity to not only take power, but prevent Gorbachev’s potential reforms from eroding their own power bases. They also moved quickly to consolidate their own power over the next several days, focusing on potential enemies among the other members of the politburo. Viktor Chebrikov, head of the KGB, was killed attempting to flee to the west. Yegor Ligachyov, one of Gorbachev’s political prodigies died in a similar manner to his mentor, though his show trial was more public, the triumvirate accusing of being the ring leader of the conspiracy that killed Gorbachev. Boris Yeltsin, another politburo supporter of Gorbachev’s, escaped into Finland but was cornered by KGB agents a few days later, committing suicide rather than being captured alive. A few others were luckier. Andrei Gromyko, one of Gorbachev’s primary supporters and former foreign minister, slipped out of the country to Sweden, and from there fled to Switzerland, barely escaping there before the outbreak of war. By the end of March, the triumvirate had unquestioned control over the government, and had decided what course to take.

The military preparations began soon after, Soviet submarines receiving orders to move out into the Atlantic, reserve units being called up, and prestaging of supplies and men starting in Eastern Germany, the Finnish and Norwegian borders and Czechoslovakia. This build up was matched on the other side as well, intelligence reports and satellite imagery telling the west that the Cold War was likely to go hot. Operation Reforger was initiated, and the largest deployment of US forces to Europe since the end of the second world war began, spearheaded by five divisions who armed themselves with prepositioned equipment, along with the storied 101st Airborne, and NATO’s Standing Force Atlantic was reinforced in anticipation of Soviet convoy raiders. Over the ten days between the official take over and the start of the war, everything was on a knifes edge, both sides staring each other down as diplomatic relations broke down. Early morning, April 12th, 1986, the order came as the Soviet Union’s 3rd Shock Army crossed the border between East and West Germany.

The clock had ticked a second closer to midnight.
 
Gorbachev dies March 24 and the attack starts on April 12. This is actually good news for NATO. The only way the Soviets can get any boost in the number of their subs in the Atlantic is to try and get those that are ready put to sea at high speed with a good deal of surface time for the diesel boats, and they will be very vulnerable to detection and subsequent destruction. A significant percentage of the submarine fleet is going to be unable to put to sea even if 1 minute after Gorbachev dies they start getting ready - in Red Storm Rising one of the key indicators in the lead up to war is the huge bump in work on the Russian submarine fleet to get them ready, and this is accurate. The Russians are going to have to attack with what they have in place, not just naval but also land and air as the 19 days won't allow much forward surge, and it won't start for a few days after Gorby's death while the plotters consolidate power.

The fleet surge will be obvious almost immediately, and is one of several indicators that a war is moments away. Another is the deployment of Russian strategic bombers ot dispersal and forward bases in Siberia. Because of range considerations and the limited number of tanker aircraft, long range bombers would plan to move to more forward bases in Siberia to be ready for attacks on the USA.
 
Gorbachev dies March 24 and the attack starts on April 12. This is actually good news for NATO. The only way the Soviets can get any boost in the number of their subs in the Atlantic is to try and get those that are ready put to sea at high speed with a good deal of surface time for the diesel boats, and they will be very vulnerable to detection and subsequent destruction. A significant percentage of the submarine fleet is going to be unable to put to sea even if 1 minute after Gorbachev dies they start getting ready - in Red Storm Rising one of the key indicators in the lead up to war is the huge bump in work on the Russian submarine fleet to get them ready, and this is accurate. The Russians are going to have to attack with what they have in place, not just naval but also land and air as the 19 days won't allow much forward surge, and it won't start for a few days after Gorby's death while the plotters consolidate power.

The fleet surge will be obvious almost immediately, and is one of several indicators that a war is moments away. Another is the deployment of Russian strategic bombers ot dispersal and forward bases in Siberia. Because of range considerations and the limited number of tanker aircraft, long range bombers would plan to move to more forward bases in Siberia to be ready for attacks on the USA.
Really the most likely scenario for a WWIII puts the time range for both sides to get ready at about a week or so - something so destabilizing happens that there's not enough time to negotiate after an incident - but the biggest thing the Soviets still have at this point is that what preparations are already in place by NATO are not fully underway. Reforger is only 6 or 7 divisions, enough to plug a gap and reinforce things, but the convoys still need to get going, fuel supplies stockpiled, etc. etc. Plus there's political and logistical issues as well on both sides - you can't just instantly mobilize a nation overnight or within a few weeks. What matters most in all of this is time after all.
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
Really the most likely scenario for a WWIII puts the time range for both sides to get ready at about a week or so - something so destabilizing happens that there's not enough time to negotiate after an incident - but the biggest thing the Soviets still have at this point is that what preparations are already in place by NATO are not fully underway. Reforger is only 6 or 7 divisions, enough to plug a gap and reinforce things, but the convoys still need to get going, fuel supplies stockpiled, etc. etc. Plus there's political and logistical issues as well on both sides - you can't just instantly mobilize a nation overnight or within a few weeks. What matters most in all of this is time after all.

The US Army has POMCUS sites in Western Europe for 5 full divisions and the equivalent of another division (Cav' regiment, two brigades) too. Plus artillery, engineering gear and everything else apart from helicopters. There was too equipment for a US Army light division in the UK (in Cheshire) and enough for a US Marine brigade in central Norway (near Trondheim). This was all there in 1986. The troops in US bases will get on aircraft, fly over, pick up the gear and redeploy. They trained for this in peacetime in practice and in staff work too.
The British, French, Dutch, Belgians, Danes and Norwegians were ready to go. Maybe they take longer than the Americans do, maybe not. Then, there is the West Germans who can move very fast too.
Those convoys coming over the North Atlantic are for follow-on war-stocks after seven to ten days even fourteen of fighting. Replacement gear, supplies and fuel. As to Canada, there is always a mention of what they would send but however they would have very little to deploy (men and stores) compared to the US.
You're right that nations can't be mobilised overnight, but with pre-war tension as well as decades of getting ready to go, they won't be sitting on their behinds for more than a week.
Politics will play a factor as you say though. I always wanted to do a TL with a full mobilisation, including all the political dramas that would come with it - doing it would be massive - before then the tension eases and it was all shown to be nothing. That fear might slow it down but when all the warning signs get ticked off, one nation after another will mobilise. It would take something exceptional to stop that.
 
The US Army has POMCUS sites in Western Europe for 5 full divisions and the equivalent of another division (Cav' regiment, two brigades) too. Plus artillery, engineering gear and everything else apart from helicopters. There was too equipment for a US Army light division in the UK (in Cheshire) and enough for a US Marine brigade in central Norway (near Trondheim). This was all there in 1986. The troops in US bases will get on aircraft, fly over, pick up the gear and redeploy. They trained for this in peacetime in practice and in staff work too.
The British, French, Dutch, Belgians, Danes and Norwegians were ready to go. Maybe they take longer than the Americans do, maybe not. Then, there is the West Germans who can move very fast too.
Those convoys coming over the North Atlantic are for follow-on war-stocks after seven to ten days even fourteen of fighting. Replacement gear, supplies and fuel. As to Canada, there is always a mention of what they would send but however they would have very little to deploy (men and stores) compared to the US.
You're right that nations can't be mobilised overnight, but with pre-war tension as well as decades of getting ready to go, they won't be sitting on their behinds for more than a week.
Politics will play a factor as you say though. I always wanted to do a TL with a full mobilisation, including all the political dramas that would come with it - doing it would be massive - before then the tension eases and it was all shown to be nothing. That fear might slow it down but when all the warning signs get ticked off, one nation after another will mobilise. It would take something exceptional to stop that.
Very informative! I knew about the prepositioned gear, along with the 'just hop on planes' strategy - I know a cold war vet who I asked about this sort of thing once. Apparently the Luxembourg airport was going to be the savior of NATO due to how fast it could unload a whole division, something like two or three each day.

As you seem to be the WWIII expert around here, I'd love to hear your thoughts on everything so far. Feedback is always welcome.
 
In Norway there was all the gear for a 500 bed hospital, to be operated by the Navy in support of the USMC and NATO Marines fighting in Norway stashed in one of those caves. This would be staffed by 850-900 personnel from medical staff to SeaBees and contained enough supplies for 90 days of full ops from food to medicines with the exception of POL and fresh water. This could be taking care of patients within 3-4 days of the staff arriving, and full operations in perhaps 5 (been there done that). The facility would be part in and part out of the cave. This is only one example of the sort of gear that was there and ready to go.
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
Very informative! I knew about the prepositioned gear, along with the 'just hop on planes' strategy - I know a cold war vet who I asked about this sort of thing once. Apparently the Luxembourg airport was going to be the savior of NATO due to how fast it could unload a whole division, something like two or three each day.

As you seem to be the WWIII expert around here, I'd love to hear your thoughts on everything so far. Feedback is always welcome.

I'm unsure about Luxembourg in this: that is something I haven't heard of before.
That's a very nice compliment but, honestly, there are posters on this site with far more knowledge than me. I just write a lot and research more than I will ever need.
 
I'm unsure about Luxembourg in this: that is something I haven't heard of before.
That's a very nice compliment but, honestly, there are posters on this site with far more knowledge than me. I just write a lot and research more than I will ever need.
I for one know plenty about the hardware in the 1980's, as well as some prototype stuff that were in the works in that decade; maybe not all of it but at least a lot to understand what would be available had the Cold War gone hot at the time.
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
I for one know plenty about the hardware in the 1980's, as well as some prototype stuff that were in the works in that decade; maybe not all of it but at least a lot to understand what would be available had the Cold War gone hot at the time.

Luxembourg's secret military force!?
I joke.
On another note to do with what I posted last night: REFORGER could very easily have been a mess too despite all of those plans. Accepted (by most) logic is that the moment it started, the Soviets would have attacked even if they weren't ready.
 
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