One of Arab-Israeli wars last as long as the Iran-Iraq war

Anyway one of Arab-Israeli wars last as long as the Iran-Iraq war with a similar level of intensity

Would the Arab forces be able to attrition an Israeli defeat or would Israel manage to win

What would be the impact of such a long war
 
Israel doesn't have the population to sustain a high-intensity war for a decade.

Well, the iran iraq war killed 500k soldiers on each side, that would be *huge* for israel, but nothing more than WW2 level of casualties ratio, this is possible, if they wage a total war.

The main problem is that Israel couldn't fight a total war for an extended period of time, not with their developed economy, during the yum kippur if they had to fight for mroe than a few months their economy would have collapsed with so many people in the army.

If it is in the 50s however france will intervene if it does get really bad, in the 60s they will eventually get a nuclear weapon, and in the context of a near-total war they would use it, or at least threaten to use it.

Latter it's impossible thanks to US involvment.
 
That would mean one of two things for the conflict to last that long; either Israël is receiving a shit ton of foreign support and volunteer, or the Israelien soldier are so good the arab are throwing their men into a meat grinder.
 
If it is in the 50s however france will intervene if it does get really bad, i
any reason why France would intervene

they will eventually get a nuclear weapon, and in the context of a near-total war they would use it, or at least threaten to use it.
Would Israel have the capacity to reach major Arab cities and a bomb large enough to cause major damage.

The main problem is that Israel couldn't fight a total war for an extended period of time, not with their developed economy, during the yum kippur if they had to fight for mroe than a few months their economy would have collapsed with so many people in the army.
How bad would an economic collapse be and could Israel adjust it's economy for such a long and total war?

Latter it's impossible thanks to US involvment.
Wouldn't that only be in the context of total collapse of Israel and being pushed into the sea
 
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8 years? When? What countries? Level of foreign support? I think this would be super unlikely. If Arab armies could hold out for 8 years, I would argue they would win the war long before that if there wasn't foreign intervention.
 
King Abdullah of Jordan survives being shot in 1949 and proceeds to cut a deal with Israel as was rumored: Israel would recognize Jordan's acquisition of the West Bank and Jordan would recognize and make peace with Israel. Shortly afterwards, Lebanon follows suit and recognizes Israel.

In 1955, the Israel-Jordan-Lebanon agreement is signed promoting trade and defense cooperation between the three states.

In 1979, Saddam successfully integrates Iraq and Syria (Hafez gets bumped out). TTL, Saddam goes to war against the Israel-Lebanon-Jordan alliance rather than Iran. The Great Iraqi War (as it comes to be described) proceeds for a whole decade as the parties hash it out.
 
Israel can't fight for eight years. The longest it fought was for two, and that was the 1947-1948 Independence war. Ever since then, the longest it fought a full-scale war was the 2006 Lebanon War (35 days), and even then it tried to force an early peace (in its favor, of course).

Funnily enough, no Arab state was in a protracted war for 8 years either; Iraq found itself up to its armpits in crazy Iranians, which is why the war went on so long. Plus, there were people who wanted the war to continue longer to weaken both sides; both Iran and Iraq were regarded as dangerous, and needing to be cut down to size.

Quite simply, even if Israel had amazing armies to inflict massively lopsided casualty counts, the pressures of war would eventually break the system; Israel has a strong military and support network, but all its wars were short ones because Israel cannot fight long ones. Even though Israel has an active military conscription and training system, it's ultimately based on the fact that it has to lure Jewish people away from other countries where they have promising lives.
King Abdullah of Jordan survives being shot in 1949 and proceeds to cut a deal with Israel as was rumored: Israel would recognize Jordan's acquisition of the West Bank and Jordan would recognize and make peace with Israel. Shortly afterwards, Lebanon follows suit and recognizes Israel.

In 1955, the Israel-Jordan-Lebanon agreement is signed promoting trade and defense cooperation between the three states.

In 1979, Saddam successfully integrates Iraq and Syria (Hafez gets bumped out). TTL, Saddam goes to war against the Israel-Lebanon-Jordan alliance rather than Iran. The Great Iraqi War (as it comes to be described) proceeds for a whole decade as the parties hash it out.
So there's an open treaty between Israel and two Arab states, in the 1950s, at the height of Arab Nationalism under Gamal Abdul Nasser? How long does it take till Amman and Beirut get new governments? Or until they break out in open civil warfare? The treaty would break long before, at the pressuring of Egypt and its supporters, forcing Jordan and Lebanon to renounce the treaty.

Plus, Lebanon and Jordan are the smallest Arab nations (not counting the assorted Gulf emirates). An Iraqi-Syrian federation would have a strong edge over them.
 
any reason why France would intervene


Would Israel have the capacity to reach major Arab cities and a bomb large enough to cause major damage.


How bad would an economic collapse be and could Israel adjust it's economy for such a long and total war?


Wouldn't that only be in the context of total collapse of Israel and being pushed into the sea

1) France was somewhat allied with Israel in the 50s, to various level across the years, they were close in the early 50a (and shared a nuclear program) less so after the suez crisis, but France still had sold a lot of equipment to Israel , there were good relations and France after all had (and still has) the third largest Jewish population in the world

Irl while they got nukes in late 66 they weren’t able to efficiently deliver them until the very late 60s, but it doesn’t matter, they say they test their first nukes (and they will have to be open with them this time) both superpower will urge both sides to stop.


For the cost I don’t have many numbers, the Tom kippur war cost about 3-4 Billion usd to Israel (13-18 billion usd 2019) for a three weeks conflict - 1/4 of israel’s Gdp , they mobilised more than 10% of the country’s population, that’s frankly numbers comparable to the US army by the very end of ww2, it’s not sustainable.

Generally the more involvement the us are the less likely any side is likely to push too far, but yeah there is a risk that if the war stays rather low intensity then they won’t intervene, but in this case the points above. May not all apply
 
There's really not a lot of distant for the front to move back and forth between the capital cities and core areas of Israel and its neighbors. If Israel conquers the Sinai then the front bumps up against Egypt's urban core near the Nile Delta, and Egypt has basically lost.

Northern Israel is only a few hours drive away from Damascus and Amman, no state on these fronts has the strategic depth to trade territory in a conventional war the way places like Russia can.

Israel, the West Bank, Gaza, and the Golan heights combined only add up to a land area equivalent to New Jersey. There's no where to retreat to, this is why Israel has nuclear weapons as a desperate insurance policy.
 
So there's an open treaty between Israel and two Arab states, in the 1950s, at the height of Arab Nationalism under Gamal Abdul Nasser? How long does it take till Amman and Beirut get new governments? Or until they break out in open civil warfare? The treaty would break long before, at the pressuring of Egypt and its supporters, forcing Jordan and Lebanon to renounce the treaty.

Plus, Lebanon and Jordan are the smallest Arab nations (not counting the assorted Gulf emirates). An Iraqi-Syrian federation would have a strong edge over them.

Okay, let's push the alliance until the 1970s following Syria mucking around with the internal politics of Jordan and Lebanon then.

Pre-Lebanon Occupation it was widely perceived in the Arab World that Lebanon would be the second country to make peace with Israel. If Abdullah hadn't been shot, there'd have been an Israeli-Jordanian peace in 1949 in exchange for recognition of the West Bank (which Abdullah desperately wanted, as the only countries that recognized Jordanian rule were the United Kingdom and Pakistan, and Abdullah still had dreams of putting as much of the levant under his control as possible).

Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon v Iraq-Syria.
 
Okay, let's push the alliance until the 1970s following Syria mucking around with the internal politics of Jordan and Lebanon then.
Even by the 1970s I doubt the population of Lebanon and Jordan would tolerate fighting alongside Israel. Also any united Syria and Iraq would be the vanguard of Pan-Arabism and major boost to the ideology as whole putting further pressure on both government not fight against it especially with Israel.
 
Even by the 1970s I doubt the population of Lebanon and Jordan would tolerate fighting alongside Israel. Also any united Syria and Iraq would be the vanguard of Pan-Arabism and major boost to the ideology as whole putting further pressure on both government not fight against it especially with Israel.

In this scenario Israel, Lebanon, and Jordan have had about 30 years of normal relations and the war is initiated by Iraq-Syria and (or via) the PLO aggressing against Jordan and Lebanon.

I'm not quite sure why Lebanon would have a particular beef. The Maronites weren't big on the whole Arab Nationalism thing and the Shia of southern Lebanon initially viewed Israel as a liberating force from the Palestinian Liberation Organization before 15 years of occupation stoked fears of becoming West Bank v2.
 
In this scenario Israel, Lebanon, and Jordan have had about 30 years of normal relations and the war is initiated by Iraq-Syria and (or via) the PLO aggressing against Jordan and Lebanon.
Egypt and Israel have had normal relations for decades but it hasn't stopped the Egyptian public from hating Israel.

I'm not quite sure why Lebanon would have a particular beef. The Maronites weren't big on the whole Arab Nationalism thing and the Shia of southern Lebanon initially viewed Israel as a liberating force from the Palestinian Liberation Organization before 15 years of occupation stoked fears of becoming West Bank v2.
It still would destabilize the country with the left-wing forces and Sunni population
 
Guys, guys, guys, we're all looking at this wrong.

One of Israel's wars was eight years long - well, technically eighteen, but the active conflict was eight. I'm talking of course about the Lebanese Civil War.

Israel entered the conflict at the behest of the beleaguered Phalangists, namely to kick out the Syrians. See, the Phalangists had more materiel, but weren't doing so hot because their enemies, the Sunnis and especially the PLO-controlled Palestinian forces, were dedicated and skilled fighters. So first the Phalangists called in the Syrians, who didn't want a rogue Lebanon ruled by a Sunni majority. Problem is, the Syrians wouldn't fucking leave once they got there, aiming to keep Lebanon in their sphere of influence. So like the cartoon problem of calling in a dog to get rid of the cat only to find the dog more troublesome, the Phalangists called in a tiger to solve the dog problem.

Israel, of course, had its own plans. Annex the country south of the Leitani, first as a "security zone" then colonize it slowly, and keep forces in Lebanon under a puppet government as an ally. Needless to say, that plan went south really damn fast. Even before his assassination, there were rumors that Bashir Gmayyil, the acting Lebanese President and supreme commander of the Phalangists, realized he kind of got stuck with the Israelis and was trying to find ways to wriggle free of his puppet strings. Then he got blown up and things went to hell for the IDF and their allies. Without Bashir, there was nobody to command the Phalangists effectively (his brothers weren't as good or charismatic as he was), and the IDF was forced to withdraw from Beirut to the Leitani, not out of defeat, but out of a successive series of ambushes, assassinations, and booby traps. They remained south of the Leitani as a "security buffer zone" through the war's end in 1991, and continued to hold South Lebanon until the withdrawal order in 2000 in the face of mounting resistance by Hezbollah - who had come into existence primarily because of the IDF occupation of Southern Lebanon.

And there you have it. A bit of a weaseling around, but one of Israel's wars, while a Low Intensity Conflict, lasted as long as the Iran-Iraq war - longer even!
 
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