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ONE NATION UNDER THE SOUTHERN CROSS





Hello, friends, in this thread I’ll present you a project which has been developing in my mind for some time now: a timeline in which the colony of Brazil becomes independent from Portugal, but instead of adopting a monarchical system under the Braganza Dynasty – as it happened IOTL in 1821 – it is born as a republic as soon as Portugal recognizes its independence. There are two significant points of divergence, on both sides of the Atlantic:

1. Inside Brazil, there are two early emancipationist movements against Portugal – IOTL known as the Inconfidência Mineira (1789) and the Revolt of the Tailors (1798) – which were declaredly inspired by the French Revolution and by the American Revolution. Both attempts were historically aborted because traitors interested in royal pardon denounced the plans to the authorities before they came to fruition. ITTL, however, both movements will happen, but won't be successful. Despite their short-term failure, they will serve as a important inspiration for the future republican groups that will fight for independence;

2. In Europe, the invasion of Portugal in 1801 by Spain (allied to Revolutionary France) has a very different outcome, and results in a virtual occupation of Portugal by the Spanish army, and the installation of a pro-French regime in Lisboa. This results in rapid breakup of the alliance between Portugal and Great Britain, and impedes the transfer of the royal Portuguese court to Brazil that only happened IOTL in 1808 due to the assistance of the British fleet.

First of all, I’ll make a serious effort to work with “hard-butterflies” in this scenario. That means that after the Points of Divergence, there will be significant changes in the historical developments, and they will mount up as the decades pass. You will see that some episodes happen with very near parallels to OTL, but they might happen in different places and possibly with different people. Nevertheless, macro-historical events or trends whose causes already existed in the late 18th Century will happen in schedule – Napoleon’s rise and fall, the decolonization wars in Latin America, the westward expansion of the United States, the Industrial Revolution, the rise of nationalism, etc.

People often complain there aren't many TLs here focused on South America. I'll try to keep my focus inside Brazil, and only if necessary I'll take about Europe and the rest of the world. This might become a Brazilwank, but I'll try to keep some realism.
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