On the Rescue of the Kalmar Union (Inquiries)

I had this discussion with Von Adler through PM and one of my threads which also talked about the survival of the Kalmar Union. I'll provide the link if you wish.
 
Before I start drowning myself in books and, to my shame, Wikipedia articles, does anyone happen to have a good rule of thumb concerning how much of a butterfly net one can reasonably place? It doesn't make particularly much sense for events up to and including the fall of Byzantium to take place exactly as IOTL - even though the fall itself will happen, sooner or later - but on the other hand, Byzantine politics are not in and of themselves the focus of this TL, and I'm worried that I might kill it before I get going, if I try to go into too much depth.

What would you guys do?

Think of it this way.

Would people in the area "protected" from butterflies know that something different had happened?

Would those people find that difference to effect their lives?

Basically, think of how much influence the changes will really have.

The nail being lost may doom one of the two sides fighting the battle, but someone half a continent away might not even know there was a battle, let alone feel any way that the winner being X instead of Y changes their situation.

This requires understanding how events influenced other events, which is a fair amount of research, but I can safely say as someone who has studied the Byzantines that stuff in late medieval Scandinavia will have a pretty small impact on them.
 
Agreeing with Elfwine; do the local bit then ponder what if any effects takes place in the neighbourhood. Making TLs I'd usually go by a ripple effect of butterflies though of course at times something happens somewhere far off or unexpected - mostly the latter. :D ;)
 
Aand, just to keep using this thread, having written an initial draft of the opening note for the TL, I now find myself faced with the fact that, beginning, as I do, in 1375, I have to handle not only Scandinavian history, but also the fall of Byzantium, the rise of the Ottomans, the conquests of Timur, the Western Schism, the Hundred Years War and whether or not the Sphinx will have its nose chopped off. Some of these, like the Schism, I was prepared to handle - the Holy Roman Empire too, for that matter, though I suspect that few can find any semblance of reason there - but with some of the others, not so much.

Before I start drowning myself in books and, to my shame, Wikipedia articles, does anyone happen to have a good rule of thumb concerning how much of a butterfly net one can reasonably place? It doesn't make particularly much sense for events up to and including the fall of Byzantium to take place exactly as IOTL - even though the fall itself will happen, sooner or later - but on the other hand, Byzantine politics are not in and of themselves the focus of this TL, and I'm worried that I might kill it before I get going, if I try to go into too much depth.

What would you guys do?

EDIT: This is, of course, not to say that I am averse to doing research. Far from. The crux of the trouble lies more in the way these major diversions take place almost simultaneously with those bringing about the focus of the timeline - while doing a timeline on the Ottoman Empire with a PoD in 1375 would doubtlessly also be interesting, it just wouldn't be the same. And yet, I cannot afford to ignore the events, for if two things during this period can be said to have laid the foundations for the later Europe, then surely, the Western Schism and the fall of the last bastion of the Roman Empire must be promising candidates.

The Ottoman-Byzantine question might not be changed too much by changes in Scandinavia. The Baltic, northern Germany and perhaps the Low Countries and even France might be slightly affected. How is the Hansa and its decline treated, and the rise of the Dutch merchants? A united Kalmar Union might speed up the decline of the Hansa and speed up the rise of the Dutch merchants - which might affect the Duke of Burgundy - he might get more resources, or he might have stronger troublesome Dutch cities and counties rebelling against him. This might affect the Hundred Years' War. Also, Scandinavian traders might pick up some of the slack left by the Hansa. The Sound toll, unthreatened, will in the long run be a distinct cause of conflict between the Kalmar Union and the Dutch (and later the English). The salt trade is vital for all parts of the Kalmar Union. Likewise, the tar, hemp and wood produced in the Kalmar Union is essential for the seafaring nations.

Any loser in a Scandinavian power struggle might take up as mercenaries in the Hundred Years' War, and if successful, might return with gold, plunder, lots of experience and a hardy force of veterans to challenge the power that be again.
 
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