On the plausibility of later Byzantine recovery: Warning, Long!

Seems in line with my own thinking of the situation. The Byzantine empire was built on its ability to tax its land (Cappadocia primarily) and raise soldiers from said land. When they started to lose land however their empire increasingly began to erode beneath them as they became unable to re-coup their losses which became an avalanche following the twelfth century.

I.E. prevent the Byzantines from losing territory the longer they last.

I do wonder if a Turkic or Arab or Slavic wholesale conquest may be better in the long term rather then short term. If we go the Chinese route it would allow for the Byzantine Greeks to absorb culturally and economically their conquerors and eventually regain their own independence as opposed to the slow retreat that saw the Byzantine Greek identity culture marginalized piece meal.
 

Dirk

Banned
Seems in line with my own thinking of the situation. The Byzantine empire was built on its ability to tax its land (Cappadocia primarily) and raise soldiers from said land. When they started to lose land however their empire increasingly began to erode beneath them as they became unable to re-coup their losses which became an avalanche following the twelfth century.

I agree, except that I really doubt the Cappadocia part. Cappadocia is an almost arid land full of rocky crags and outlandish landforms. Bithynia, Roman Asia province, Cilicia, Thrace, and Macedonia are much more likely sources of wealthy land.
 

nomisma

Donor
Seems in line with my own thinking of the situation. The Byzantine empire was built on its ability to tax its land (Cappadocia primarily) and raise soldiers from said land. When they started to lose land however their empire increasingly began to erode beneath them as they became unable to re-coup their losses which became an avalanche following the twelfth century.

Weren't the main agricultural production area in Anatolia in Aegean Region (Thracesian Theme) and Northwest Region (Opsician Theme)?
The Black Sea Coast was less agricultural productive and the central Anatolia was the least productive area.
 

RousseauX

Donor
I cannot see this happening in the mideval period. Although I guess you can have a WI the Hippodrome Factions Revived and had political power? TTL. I believe either the Blues or Greens had signifigant middle class support.

The most likely example is if Byzantium survived the Middle Ages and the Renaissance as a power. I can then see a Byzantine Sun King or other enlightened despot playing the role of centralizer and defender of the middle classes.

For their to be a strong middle class there needs to be (baring the silk and dye industry taking off) a strong Byzantine Navy (which creates a lot of skilled jobs) or gunpowder and cannon replaces cavarly and fortresses as the measure of military might.
You don't need to wait that long, centralization and the breaking of the landed nobility in both France and England occurred under the Valois and Tudors respectively in the late 15th-16th century rather than the 18th.
 
Based solely on the OP alone, I'd say that one alternative to Byzantium suddenly becoming commercially minded is for Byzantium to become even *more* contemptuous of commerce, if that means that it then refuses to make trade concessions to these contaminated Italian aristocrats cum merchants, or refuses to honor the deals. In the short term it would mean a hit, since Byzantium wouldn't be getting their help. But if it means holding on to more of the core area longer, the Byzantines are well-poised around 1500 or so to start rolling as a gunpowder empire. Ironically, probably with still decent revenues from the knock-on effects and increased demand that will result from the revival of trade in western Europe.

A Byzantine replacement for the Ottomans would be interesting. Anatolia almost certainly would be reconquered, and done early enough that it would be a somewhat 'Greek' area by the time nationalism replaces empire as an organizing principle. I don't know if the empire would conquer the Levant and Arabia, but if it did those would be the equivalent of the Ottomans' Balkans--areas that for religious reasons aren't heavily assimilated and try to break away early, maybe sometime during the 19th C. If the Balkans break away at all, it would be later, maybe in the 20th (equivalent to the Arabs from the Ottomans in OTL) but the southern Balkans are likely to become fairly assimilated and part of the perceived 'core' area, and even the northern Balkans won't have the advantage the Arabs did that their language and their sites were prestigious in the dominant religion.

Relations with Russia or the equivalent gigantic space-filling Northern Empire would be interesting. I think its likely that one emerges. Its also likely, though not certain, that it would be Orthodox. But its also likely that the two empires would be rivals. Would there be a further schism into Northern Orthodox and Southern Orthodox, and how would that affect relationships with Catholics and Protestants? A Uniate Russia or a Russia that is Northern Orthodox but where Northern Orthodox and some varieties of Lutheranism are seen as part of the same grouping would be interesting.

Obviously butterflies and historical details could change a lot, but I think the weak historical attractor here is a *Greece that constitutes OTL Greece, Anatolia, the southern Balkans, and assorted islands, maybe even Sicily, went through quite a lot of convulsions in the late 19th through the middle 20th or so, but is now a stable middleweight power on the lines of OTL France or UK
 
Weren't the main agricultural production area in Anatolia in Aegean Region (Thracesian Theme) and Northwest Region (Opsician Theme)?
The Black Sea Coast was less agricultural productive and the central Anatolia was the least productive area.

After the loss of Egypt and the Anatolia interior (especially as it became unreliable tax grounds due to raids which actually the Byzantine lower class benefited from as they could avoid tax collections rather well) they switched over to Thrace. I was reading something recently about the Byzantine grain market being in the Constantinople but then it was moved outside the city where the Emperor or Emperors taxed the merchants for using his property (which the new market was fired to relocate to) sending prices skyrocketing.
 
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