Caput Decimus: The Great Decadence
The succession settlement and the appointment of two able men as successors was maybe the best decisions of Quintus' reign. Namely, the rest of his government was marked by either uninfluential or important, but bad decisions. It was not that Quintus was particularly malicious, but he was confined in his reactionary mindset and determined to defend an antiquated political system.
The longer Quintus' reign lasted, the stronger the court became. The senatorial class took back the offices Quietus had given to equites, the wealth of the senatorial families was extended at the expense of public finances, many offices became virtually available for purchase and clientilism spread through the empire like a growth.
Admittedly, this time was the Golden Age of literature, art and philosophy. The villas of this era, where the senators plotted against each other, were the most beautiful buildings Rome had seen for many years, and the extravagant celebration of the 900th birthday of Rome [1] was the most luxurious festivity the city had seen since the ignauration of the Colosseum.

Meanwhile, the rampant corruption and the disastrous choice of military and administrative incumbents showed their first consequences: In Judea, a revolt lead by a certain Bar Kokhba erupted, forcing Quintus to do what he hated: Either personally commanding a large army or putting it under the command of someone who could potentially use this forces to revolt against the emperor.
Too busy with his amours and banquets he decided for the latter, but didn't forget to appoint a very lousy general who would never fulfill his tasks in time and without taking hits. The Third Jewish War concluded with a quick Roman victory under Marcus Lollius, but until then, it was fought as a guerilla war, and the incompetence of the Roman commanders paired with the inferiority of the enemy troops created a bloody and insurmountable stalemate.

Additionally, Roman intelligence was almost blind, being lead by incompetent officers using it completely inefficiently. The Roman government didn't realize, or if it realized, didn't care about the drastic population growth in Germania magna leading to a large demographic pressure on the borders of the empire.
Climatic change, overpopulation, the prospect of a better life in southern regions, among other factors, lead to the migration of the Goths toward the Black Sea. The neighboring tribes, of both Germanic and Sarmatian culture, had no other choice than to migrate southbound themselves and threaten the Empire. Many Germans demanded to become inhabitants of the empire, and were allowed to do so by an order of Quintus.
However, some greedy officials, having acquired their office through links to some important court dignitaries, didn't comply with the decisions and simply sold the newcomers into slavery, or urged them to leave their province and go further south, or hired them to build their own private army.

It was clear that the situation worsened from day to day, but as long as Quintus lived, nothing really alarming happened. In his villa at Baiae, his advisers told him that everything was going smoothly, despite of some exceptions in particularly endangered areas. The emperor's luck was to die before things became serious, and the task of his successor would prove to be a hard one.

[1] 147 CE
 
The dark clouds gather!

The easiest way I have of reconciling my notions about the OTL nature of the spread of the Christian cults in their diversity with your proclamation that they are largely eclipsed here is assuming that the TL diverged before the ostensible POD and that in the ATL that grossly paralleled ours, the Christian movement was just plain weaker and smaller from the get-go. This seems plausible enough to me--that it would be weak regardless of Buddhist influence, whereas Buddhist missionaries who might even have been OTL find more potential converts earlier due to not being preempted. Ironically it is Buddhists incorporating a version of the Christ mythos for the sake of building bridges to shadows of OTL's Christian community who do most to preserve general knowledge the Christians existed at all in your uptime.

This is something I thought you were trying to say in the first place, back when I first commented on the Christian elements being seen as the exotic and strange ones by the uptimers writing this history. The way we mainly know about the Manichaeans via their Catholic persecutors, this TL knows about Christianity secondhand via the triumphant Buddhists.

Is that pretty much it then?

At 175 CE the Empire of OTL had many fairly happy days still ahead of it before things went really to ruin anywhere. Perhaps overstretch here makes the Empire vulnerable to hard times much earlier--but perhaps the added mass and the relative vigor of the earlier period mean that after a nasty blow and painful years, the Empire as a whole makes a comeback and with some adjustments rectifies the situation so it appears to be a mere glitch a couple generations after.

Guess we have to wait and see what you do with it, but I'm guessing the days of a single unified Empire, perhaps under somewhat decentralized but still loyal to the whole regional rule, are very far from over yet. There should be at least one good century still lying ahead, unless overreach has butterflied them away.
 
Liber Quartus: Crisis

Caput Undecimus: Downfall
Marcus Lollius and Publius Verus accessed the throne in 916 AUC [1], and found the Empire in a piteous shape. The first task was to divide up the government between the two emperors – in their first year, they reigned together as equal consuls in Rome, office they both held in this time, before they assigned themselves different parts of the empire.
While Publius Verus was a tribute to the dynastic links with north Africa and the former Moorish, now African faction in the Senate, Marcus Lollius was the more experienced of the two emperors. While Verus enjoyed orgies under Quintus' reign, Lollius had seriously passed through the Cursus Honorum and gathered experience regarding Roman administration and government – thus, Lollius was obviously the more influential, the more active, the more creative of the pair.

Soon after their enthronement, the emperors witnessed the opening stages of the Great Migrations. The Chatti and Chauci attacked in Germania and Raetia, the Langobardi in Pannonia, the Vandals in Dacia and, most importantly, the Marcomanni, Quadi and Iazyges on the Danube.
Unsurprisingly, the army command, fragmented because of Quintus' paranoia, and the troops, having lost any discipline, were unable to prevent an important number of these incursions. For example, the provinces of Germania were defended by five legions, normally commanded by the two governors of the provinces. However, Quintus divided Germania into four provinces, so that one governor had not more than two legions under his command.
On the Danube, where a popular joke said that eleven legions were commanded by thirty different legates, the pressure on the Roman lines was especially high, and Lollius decided that only the permanent subjugation of the tribes and the provincialization of the Great Hungarian Plain as Sarmatia would end the periodic attacks on Roman territory. Nevertheless, the plains had to be secured with a limes in the north; pacification of a hostile population was not an easy task; offensives and counter-offensives, barbarian raids and Roman punitive expeditions lasted over fifteen years.

To organize the empire's defense, it was now necessary to consolidate the scattered forces and reunite the dispersed vexilliationes, thus forming powerful units. Naturally, it was impossible to implement an army reform while fighting wars on different fronts, and things improved only very slowly. The emperors Lollius and Verus first used forced marches to move legions from calm fronts to the wars on the borders:
A Quick Response Force, follwing the emperor to the threatened fronts to reinforce the local armies in critical situations. This retinue, called comitatus, was formed of the famous two additional legions formed by Quietus and the according number of auxiliary cohorts. But it soon grew, since nearly all newly formed units were added to it, and slowly evolved into a full fledged central field army, reinforcing the regional armies in their fight against barbarian incursions and deterring provincial commanders from usurping imperial power and starting a civil war.

However, the fighting soon expanded to nearly all fronts, so it became necessary to improve the efficiency of the limited number of troops. A first amelioration was the appointment of equites as legion commanders (praefectus pro legato), to replace the often incompetent former pretors and consuls of Quintus' reign. However, Lollius' conservatism and his entrenchment in the senatorial class forbade the equestrian command over legions over the long term.
To solve the problem, he bestowed the admission the Senate (adlectio) upon many equites and even former legionaries, who had become centurions and then primipilares. As senators, they could now administer senatorial offices in the army, and, without being at heart part of the senatorial class, equites promoted to the senatorial order became legion's legates.

[1] 163 CE
 
Guess we have to wait and see what you do with it, but I'm guessing the days of a single unified Empire, perhaps under somewhat decentralized but still loyal to the whole regional rule, are very far from over yet.

Quite right, the Chinese influence will lead to an even more centralized empire. Take some time to google the name Shang Yang (if you don't already know him).
 
My predictions:
1. Rome will lose Mesopotamia in the short term and will lose this contact with china. The Buddhist will keep its influence in east and it might grow perhaps even enough. To be part of the dogma ITTL council of nicea.
2.germanic invasions will arrive as IOTL. Perhaps hiberia will be abandoned early but the Romans will retain Britain.
3. We might see a balkanization like IOTL with Palmyra, boudica, and the Gallic empire. (sorry if I got the names wrong I'm on my phone) yet another strong emperor probably will reunite the empire
4. If we get an early western -eastern division. As IOTL the rich and more populous eastern part will survive and the west will fall to the Germans
After that we'll. Start watching the butterfly's effect
 
My predictions:

Oh, a prophet!

1. Rome will lose Mesopotamia in the short term and will lose this contact with china. The Buddhist will keep its influence in east and it might grow perhaps even enough. To be part of the dogma ITTL council of nicea.

Rome's position in the east is secured by eight legions (that's shown on this map), with the same number of auxiliary troops (-> 80 auxiliary cohorts) and the two fleets, one for the Caspian Sea and one for the Persian Gulf. Also, Mesopotamia is one of Rome's richest provinces, and the Greeks within the province know that Rome is the only power to protect them from the assimilation into oriental/Persian cultural.

So the Romans have enough troops and the will to defend Mesopotamia. The Parthian Empire can take back Mesopotamia, but the Romans will still be able to conquer it back, and they want to conquer it back.

2.germanic invasions will arrive as IOTL. Perhaps hiberia will be abandoned early but the Romans will retain Britain.

Yeah, the Germans are coming. This will be the major concern of Roman foreign politics for the next century.

3. We might see a balkanization like IOTL with Palmyra, boudica, and the Gallic empire. (sorry if I got the names wrong I'm on my phone) yet another strong emperor probably will reunite the empire

Boudica was in the 60's, 80 years before my POD.

Yeah, the idea of a balkanization with a subsequent reunification is cool. I'll think of it.

=====

Caput Duodecimus: Eastern Affairs

Lollius' first decision was to withdraw troops from Mesopotamia to finally end the endless war in Judea. This decision had terrible consequences, since it provoked a Parthian attack on Mesopotamia, where the thinned out Roman troops were repulsed and the legions of Babylonia cut off of supplies.
Siege was laid to Charax and the city sacked by Parthian troops. The Classis Persica was destroyed, only some ships being able to circumnavigate Arabia and flee to Egypt*. Without the presence of a fleet in the Indian Ocean, piracy again became a major problem, interrupting the trade that managed to survive until then. The bankruptcy of many merchants of all nationalities was one consequence of the new Parthian War.

This conflict required a strong Roman army in the east, paid by tax increase, this in turn requiring a strong and reasonably honest administration; the legions destroyed in Mesopotamia were reformed in Syria and placed under the command of Publius Verus, who became regent of the east. This was the first division of the empire, even if Verus was checked by advisers appointed by Lollius.
The method of leading the troops closely instead of commanding them out of a distant palace in Italy, as Quintus was used to, proved to be effective. If the emperors commanded the troops in persons, they had little to fear of usurpers, making it possible to form large and superior armies instead of parceling commands out to create many weak units. These armies, at least equal in numbers, had then a good chance to overcome even strong adverse forces.
It should be noticed that the victory against the Parthians was mainly the achievement of the generals and legion's legates, even if they had been chosen by Verus. The reconquest of Mesopotamia was lead by Avidius Cassius, who sacked Charax for a second time and had Orabazes II, king of Mesene, executed for having submitted to the Parthians and bringing in oriental traditions in his hellenistic realm.

To solve these complex problems peculiar to the orient, Didius Julianus [1], a financial talent, was appointed corrector of Mesene in 923 AUC [2], while once more, Roman troops entered Susa, this time sacking the city and occupying the country instead of merely accepting the subjection of the king of Elymais.
The war ended after seven years when a second army, commanded by Marcus Claudius Fronto and coming from the north, besieged and took Ekbatana, thus forcing the Parthian Great King Vologases IV to return to the negotiating table. Surprisingly, on the advice of Lollius and against the wish of Verus, the Romans didn't press for annexations. A status quo peace was concluded, because Marcus Lollius was of the opinion that the heavily strained empire shouldn't be burdened with new provinces.

Instead, Marcus Lollius was working for a regeneration of Roman power.

*One Roman open sea transporter however tried something ambitious by sailing to the south and attempting to round Africa. However, the crew had to give up without finding the end of the continent and returned to Egypt. This failure convinced many geographers that the Indian Ocean was an inland sea with no link to the Atlantic Ocean.

[1] In our TL a rich senator who bought the throne and managed to rule for some months.
[2] 170 CE
 
Caput Tertius Decimus: Skill shall prevail
Marcus Lollius was, just as his cursed predecessor Quintus, a proud member of the senatorial class. His father and some more distant relatives had lost their influence under Quietus; therefore, Lollius mother, Domitia Lucilla, bore hatred towards the first Moorish emperor, and taught her son to acknowledge the dignity of his order and to act according to the senators' interests.
But yet, Marcus Lollius had seen the abuses of Quintus' reign. He was maybe the only competent senior official of the latter's administration, and had enough opportunities to detect the weak points of the empire's government. At the end, he realized that Quietus probably wasn't wrong with his decision to favor talented candidates, whether they were members of the equestrian order or even of lower classes – as long as they were loyal to both the emperor and the empire.

The formation of a such a professional administration was accelerated by the otherwise disastrous Lollian Plague. This epidemic, a peculiarly deadly form of smallpox, spread from Parthia [1] and caused approximately six millions deaths, among them Marcus' only son Marcus Annius Verus. Subsequently, Marcus Lollius urged his family physician, the Greek doctor Galen, to find a remedy for the disease.
Galen had not the knowledge to develop a vaccination and much less a cure helping to stop the infection, but he realized that the illness affected mainly persons having had contact with sick persons. Thus, he recommended the imperial government to separate healthy regions from infected ones and to restrict human traffic between the provinces. He was of the opinion that this was the only possibility to contain the plague and to prevent further deaths.
Therefor, the imperial bureaus developed a quarantine system, including medical tests of voyagers. Those who were recognized as healthy received passports issued by local medical officers – these documents comprised the provenance, the social position and the medical certificate of the traveler. This regulation required the hiring of public physicians for the urban districts of Rome and the cities of the empire; they were paid by the state, as an extension of the alimenta [2] system.

To control the execution of the new medical statutes, the governors appointed curatores for the cities that hadn't already one, even if this strongly curtailed the local self-government. On the countryside, a gendarmery (the so called frumentarii) was formed out of military units to prevent illegal border violations. Additionally, the Museion of Alexandria was funded and the a public medical school in Rome was created to train public physicians and to find new therapies.
This radical extension of public services lead to the need of finding appropriate candidates for the newly created offices. Marcus Lollius, who was heavily influenced by Serican philosophy, wanted to make sure that only capable citizens would execute the administrative positions. His dream was a full fledged administrative reform, making sure that an office is held neither by the richest senator nor by the most powerful army officer, but by the best candidate.
For Marcus Lollius, knowledge and skill were as important as the capability to express the truth. An imperial constitution even permitted free speech and moderate criticism of the imperial government. However, even more important was that candidates were not only skilled and loyal, but also incorrupt and skilled.

Marcus Lollius was a strong supporter of meritocracy and adopted Confucian political theory, including the Chinese nominating system [3]. Under this system, each Chinese district administrator would recommend one filial and one incorrupt candidate for civil offices – furthermore, the nominator was punishable if he named nobody or if one the nominees emerged as corrupt.
Similar means were chosen by the Roman Emperor to find apt officeholders. Often, Marcus followed the advice of local authorities and institutions. For example, curatores were frequently elected by the council of the cities, and medical officers appointed on the recommendation of prominent physicians. In the army, centurions were designated by the troops, and gifted first centurions (primi pilares) were appointed tribune of a legion or even legion's legate.

[1] Just like the Antonine Plague
[2] This system (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trajan#The_alimenta)
[3] This system (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xiaolian)
 
Awesome job with the update. Seems like Lollius is truly attempting to turn Rome into an Imperial Meritocracy. Also, quick note. Tribunes weren't appointed, they were elected.
 
Awesome job with the update. Seems like Lollius is truly attempting to turn Rome into an Imperial Meritocracy.

And it will become much more meritocratic. How meritocratic do you think can the Roman Empire become?

Also, quick note. Tribunes weren't appointed, they were elected.

Yes, during the republic the Tribunes were elected by the Comitia. But under Augustus and Tiberius, the elections became a farce, and at this point (2nd century), they have no meaning anymore.

Awesome job with the update.

THX
 
An important problem with the Confucian meritocracy is that people were rewarded for memorizations skill rather than leadership or management abilities, will and how will the Romans avoid it?
 
Wie konnte ich nur diesen wichtigen Thread übersehen???

Mea culpa, mea maxima culpa!

I had not the time today to read all posts. But there is already so much stuff, I like to comment. Great work as usual. And a brave interpretation of a possible roman history as usual ;)
I got a lot of questions. Expect them tomorrow. Its 2 am now here.
 
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