On early Brazilian industrialization and the plausibility of becoming a Superpower under certain circumstances

[Masked Grizzly]

While there have been many threads on the subject of Brazil becoming a superpower or industrializing earlier and maintain its progress on compared to OTL, with some believing it was relatively achievable without additional territorial expansion.

Would it have still been possible under certain circumstances for an ATL Brazil to successfully industrialize earlier on and possibly even become a superpower minus the territories of Rio Grande do Sul as well as Amapa, Roraima and essentially everything north of the Amazon and Rio Negro?

Somewhat related yet on a similar theme of Brazil possibly becoming a superpower albeit involving territorial expansion, how plausible would it have been for for ATL Brazil gaining access to the Pacific ocean (likely at the expense of Peru, Ecuador and Colombia)?

 

[Vinization]

I don't think becoming a superpower is possible (even if our territory was kept intact) but it could become a great power. The loss of Rio Grande do Sul would sting since gaúcho beef helped feed the capital, but other than that the core bulk of Brazilian territory is preserved along with all its natural potential.

Gaining an access to the Pacific is frankly impossible since it would first require conquering extremely distant regions of virtually impenetrable jungle and then the Andes. And that's without counting the fact that the countries whose land would be taken over won't just roll over and die.

 

[SuperSage125]

Keep the Brazilian empire

 

[ByzantineCaesar]

minus the territories of Rio Grande do Sul as well as Amapa, Roraima and essentially everything north of the Amazon and Rio Negro?

Yes to the latter, no to the former. The Amazon is inconsequential to early Brazilian development, though I have to say that the Amazon river really sucks as a border. Whoever controls the river controls the entire region, there is no middle ground here. Anyway, Rio Grande do Sul is rich and has a significant population, especially when immigration kicks in, and has a very important strategic role as the first line of defense before the Brazilian heartland (São Paulo/Rio) and as a producer of beef for domestic consumption, allowing the rest of the country to focus on plantations and cash crops. If Brazil lacks Rio Grande do Sul early on, Brazilian development suffers a serious blow, though not a crippling one.

Keep the Brazilian empire

A monarchy isn’t a magic solution. The Empire was well on its way to reforming itself into something similar to the First Republic when it was overthrown. I have my doubts that much would have changed if the monarchy had survived into the 20th century.

 

[Sarthak]

Instead of saying let the monarchy survive, I would say let Pedro II be more active than disinterested that he was during his last year's of rule due to having no male heir. Get him a male heir that survives in the 50s, and he won't become the disinterested monarch that he was in the late 70s and early 80s.

 

[PeterTheSmall]

Instead of saying let the monarchy survive, I would say let Pedro II be more active than disinterested that he was during his last year's of rule due to having no male heir. Get him a male heir that survives in the 50s, and he won't become the disinterested monarch that he was in the late 70s and early 80s.

Or have Pedro I stay and be a capable monarch instead of going to fight for Portugal.

Bolivia made an offer to become a vassal of Brazil, at some point. If Pedro played his cards right, he could've integrated Bolivia (with its Pacific Coast) and kept Cisplatina. Besides that, an adult monarch would mean that slavery would probably be abolished sooner and less provincial revolts would occur.

Brazil would not be a superpower, but it would certainly be Security Council material, the likes of Britain, France and India.

 

[Atterdag]

Question is what Brazil would do with a great power status. It’s area of interest is South America, which wasn’t heavily contested by other great powers anyway, perhaps except the USA.

 

[ByzantineCaesar]

Or have Pedro I stay and be a capable monarch instead of going to fight for Portugal.

Bolivia made an offer to become a vassal of Brazil, at some point. If Pedro played his cards right, he could've integrated Bolivia (with its Pacific Coast) and kept Cisplatina. Besides that, an adult monarch would mean that slavery would probably be abolished sooner and less provincial revolts would occur.

Brazil would not be a superpower, but it would certainly be Security Council material, the likes of Britain, France and India.

I doubt Brazil would be able to integrate Bolivia. There simply isn’t enough infrastructure to do so and the distances are just too great. Brazil doesn’t need more territory to become a great power either, and a Pacific coast is overrated. No one in Europe had a Pacific coast, but they turned out alright.

Also, Brazil already is Security Council material in OTL. We just tend to forget it nowadays because of its long economic crisis and its dormant foreign policy since 2013 or so, when it’s not an idiotic foreign policy suited for peripheral countries under the current government.

 

[PeterTheSmall]

I doubt Brazil would be able to integrate Bolivia. There simply isn’t enough infrastructure to do so and the distances are just too great. Brazil doesn’t need more territory to become a great power either, and a Pacific coast is overrated. No one in Europe had a Pacific coast, but they turned out alright.

Brazil could integrate Bolivia. You just need a good autonomy arrangement until the distances became manageable. And the Europeans powers were in a very different position. If a Pacific Coast was not an important thing then the US would've reached for one with such ferocity.

In fact, even a stronger Brazil will still be much weaker than the US, so I would argue that we would need the coast even more.

Also, Brazil already is Security Council material in OTL. We just tend to forget it nowadays because of its long economic crisis and its dormant foreign policy since 2013 or so, when it’s not an idiotic foreign policy suited for peripheral countries under the current government.

We are borderline Security Council material, but no country can really be taken serious enough to be a security council permanent member without nukes.

I was saying that with this improvements we would be strong enough that it would be inconceivable to just don't give us a seat, and not the situation we have right now where we are kinda strong enough to have a seat, in some ways, but not strong enough to anyone to give a damn about this.

 

[Gukpard]

Brazil could integrate Bolivia. You just need a good autonomy arrangement until the distances became manageable. And the Europeans powers were in a very different position. If a Pacific Coast was not an important thing then the US would've reached for one with such ferocity.

Yeah but it's infraestructure is non existent and it's economy is terrible, this would be a drain on the brazilian economy for little to no gain

Also if Chile wants to take the bolivian coast, well, they simple would, there is nothing brazil can do since it is just too far away

 

[PeterTheSmall]

Also if Chile wants to take the bolivian coast, well, they simple would, there is nothing brazil can do since it is just too far away

Chile wouldn't want war with the whole Empire of Brazil.

There's no such thing as "they simply would", considering that the Brazilians could reach Chile's coast with their fleet and cause great havoc, a thing the Bolivian Navy was too weak to do.

 

[PeterTheSmall]

Yeah but it's infraestructure is non existent and it's economy is terrible, this would be a drain on the brazilian economy for little to no gain

Like most of the Northern states?

 

[Gukpard]

Chile wouldn't want war with the whole Empire of Brazil.

There's no such thing as "they simply would", considering that the Brazilians could reach Chile's coast with their fleet and cause great havoc, a thing the Bolivian Navy was too weak to do.

It could, because Brazil cannot proper influence the area

There is attrition to move for such a far away region, and the public won't care about a recently annexed area, you had protests against the Paraguayan war and Paraguay had invaded a state that is a core part of Brazil

Like most of the Northern states?

This is EXTREMELY disrespectfull with the northern states and it's populations, the region produced rubber, sugar cane and were not a drain like a spanish speaking barely unsettled with portuguese speakers bolivia would it be

 

[SuperSage125]

Instead of saying let the monarchy survive, I would say let Pedro II be more active than disinterested that he was during his last year's of rule due to having no male heir. Get him a male heir that survives in the 50s, and he won't become the disinterested monarch that he was in the late 70s and early 80s.

Ya; but the empire was far more democratic than the first republic(which was very oligarchical and divided between the states of minas Gerias and Sao Paulo); a more democratic and enlightened regime would benefit the entirety of brazil and most likely continue the path of industrialization

 

[SuperSage125]

Yes to the latter, no to the former. The Amazon is inconsequential to early Brazilian development, though I have to say that the Amazon river really sucks as a border. Whoever controls the river controls the entire region, there is no middle ground here. Anyway, Rio Grande do Sul is rich and has a significant population, especially when immigration kicks in, and has a very important strategic role as the first line of defense before the Brazilian heartland (São Paulo/Rio) and as a producer of beef for domestic consumption, allowing the rest of the country to focus on plantations and cash crops. If Brazil lacks Rio Grande do Sul early on, Brazilian development suffers a serious blow, though not a crippling one.

A monarchy isn’t a magic solution. The Empire was well on its way to reforming itself into something similar to the First Republic when it was overthrown. I have my doubts that much would have changed if the monarchy had survived into the 20th century.

Ya; but the empire was far more democratic than the first republic(which was very oligarchical and divided between the states of minas Gerias and Sao Paulo); a more democratic and enlightened regime would benefit the entirety of brazil and most likely continue the path of industrialization

 

[PeterTheSmall]

It could, because Brazil cannot proper influence the area

There is attrition to move for such a far away region, and the public won't care about a recently annexed area, you had protests against the Paraguayan war and Paraguay had invaded a state that is a core part of Brazil



This is EXTREMELY disrespectfull with the northern states and it's populations, the region produced rubber, sugar cane and were not a drain like a spanish speaking barely unsettled with portuguese speakers bolivia would it be

Brasil can send a fleet or base a fleet in the area, even more at the time of OTL's War of the Pacific.

And I'm not disrespecting the northern regions, the fact is that these regions have poor infrastructure, like Bolivia, but still were/are a valuable part of the country, a thing which goes against your argument. Of course, they have production of valuable goods, but so does Bolivia. Stop overreacting.

 

[Gukpard]

Brasil can send a fleet or base a fleet in the area, even more at the time of OTL's War of the Pacific.

It is unworth too, assuming they do it will be expensive, it gonna take time, and Chile can temporarily retreat from overseas trade to focus on trading with Argentina and Peru to prevent it's sealanes from being raided. With this done the only option for Brazil would be to bomb the Chilean coast, where there are forts that can fire back at the ships, and a ship sunk in the pacific cannot be recovered. There is just little gain for it.

these regions have poor infrastructure, like Bolivia, but still were/are a valuable part of the country,

They spoke portuguese, had a brazilian elite, had been part of the territory for 300 years at the time and were accessible. To arrive in Bolivia you need to cross the pantanal that is a difficult task even today, thus Bolivia would work something akin to a colony, a brazilian india without the tea, just with tin that cannot be transported to Rio through railways.

 

[LuckyLuciano]

Bolivia made an offer to become a vassal of Brazil, at some point. If Pedro played his cards right, he could've integrated Bolivia (with its Pacific Coast) and kept Cisplatina. Besides that, an adult monarch would mean that slavery would probably be abolished sooner and less provincial revolts would occur.

That'd be a chonky brazil

 

[PeterTheSmall]

It is unworth too, assuming they do it will be expensive, it gonna take time, and Chile can temporarily retreat from overseas trade to focus on trading with Argentina and Peru to prevent it's sealanes from being raided. With this done the only option for Brazil would be to bomb the Chilean coast, where there are forts that can fire back at the ships, and a ship sunk in the pacific cannot be recovered. There is just little gain for it..

Its more unworthy to Chile to start this war in the first place. Brazil+Bolivia is a much tougher nut to crack than the Bolivian-Peruvian alliance they fought OTL.

They spoke portuguese, had a brazilian elite, had been part of the territory for 300 years at the time and were accessible. To arrive in Bolivia you need to cross the pantanal that is a difficult task even today, thus Bolivia would work something akin to a colony, a brazilian india without the tea, just with tin that cannot be transported to Rio through railways.

That's why they would've to have a good deal of autonomy, maybe even become a personal union where the Emperor of Brazil is King/Duke of Bolivia.

 

[PeterTheSmall]

That'd be a chonky brazil
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Beautiful.