Labour Wins in 2008 - A short political timeline
Hi guys, I've got a short political timeline I want to share with ya'll just want to get the politics out of my system so I can write updates for CKSGTG again .
14 October 2008
Prime Minister Helen Clark and John Key in what was called the turning point of the 2008 NZ Election. Not in the frame are minor party leaders
Helen Clark's decision to support the minor parties in the TVNZ Election Debate was with the benefit of hindsight, the correct one. John Key spent almost all of the night sparring with Winston Peters and being attacked by Progressive Leader Jim Anderton that he was mentally exhausted. His sideswipes against Helen Clark proved flat as the Prime Minister shrugged off blow after blow. It was brutal, unedifying gutter politics but at the end of the night many agreed that the Prime Minister had managed to secure a knife edge victory. Winston Peters was the other winner of the night as he bought his natural charisma to bear against John Key - hogging lots of screen time in the process.
A post-debate poll asked the live studio audience "Who did you think win the debate?"
Helen Clark - 45%
John Key - 40%
Winston Peters - 10%
Others - 5%
This was following the end of a very bad week for the National Party as Labour started the week by catching John Key flat-footed by announcing a bank-guarantee scheme. Althought some argued it was 'bad government,' it successfully torpedoed National's momentum and kept Labour dominating the news agenda. A TV1 poll released on 18 October came out with shock results for the National Party and John Key:
If General Election were held today - who would you vote for?
National - 44% (Down 6 from 50%)
Labour - 37% (Up 5 from 32%)
New Zealand First - 5% (Up 2 from 3%)
Greens - 8% (down 2 from 10%)
Act - 3% ( up 1 from 2%)
Progressives - 1% (nc)
United Future - 1% (nc)
Maori Party - 1%(nc)
Think about the current MP's of any party - Who would you prefer as Prime Minister?
John Key - 45% (down 7 from 52%)
Helen Clark - 46% (up 6 from 39%)
Winston Peters - 5% (up 1% from 4%)
Others - 4%
Coalition Match-ups
On these results, and taking into account likely electorate results the following coalitions are possible
Leanest possible Labour Government:
Labour(44 seats) + Greens (10) + NZ First (6) + Progressives (1) = 61/120
National Opposition:
National (53 Seats) + Act (4) = 57/120
Neutral:
Maori Party (2 seats) + United Future (1 seat) = 3 seats
The polls gave a big boost to the Labour campaign and deflated the National Party campaign. For the first time there seemed to be positive movement in the polls in Labour's favour and it showed that a government was possible. This empowered Labour activists and the entire Labour Party and demoralized the National opposition. However it was only the first full week of campaigning and there could be more surprizes in store...