On a knife edge: Labour Wins in 2008

Labour Wins in 2008 - A short political timeline

Hi guys, I've got a short political timeline I want to share with ya'll just want to get the politics out of my system so I can write updates for CKSGTG again .

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14 October 2008
Prime Minister Helen Clark and John Key in what was called the turning point of the 2008 NZ Election. Not in the frame are minor party leaders

Helen Clark's decision to support the minor parties in the TVNZ Election Debate was with the benefit of hindsight, the correct one. John Key spent almost all of the night sparring with Winston Peters and being attacked by Progressive Leader Jim Anderton that he was mentally exhausted. His sideswipes against Helen Clark proved flat as the Prime Minister shrugged off blow after blow. It was brutal, unedifying gutter politics but at the end of the night many agreed that the Prime Minister had managed to secure a knife edge victory. Winston Peters was the other winner of the night as he bought his natural charisma to bear against John Key - hogging lots of screen time in the process.

A post-debate poll asked the live studio audience "Who did you think win the debate?"
Helen Clark - 45%
John Key - 40%
Winston Peters - 10%
Others - 5%


This was following the end of a very bad week for the National Party as Labour started the week by catching John Key flat-footed by announcing a bank-guarantee scheme. Althought some argued it was 'bad government,' it successfully torpedoed National's momentum and kept Labour dominating the news agenda. A TV1 poll released on 18 October came out with shock results for the National Party and John Key:


If General Election were held today - who would you vote for?

National - 44% (Down 6 from 50%)
Labour - 37% (Up 5 from 32%)
New Zealand First - 5% (Up 2 from 3%)
Greens - 8% (down 2 from 10%)
Act - 3% ( up 1 from 2%)
Progressives - 1% (nc)
United Future - 1% (nc)
Maori Party - 1%(nc)

Think about the current MP's of any party - Who would you prefer as Prime Minister?

John Key - 45% (down 7 from 52%)
Helen Clark - 46% (up 6 from 39%)
Winston Peters - 5% (up 1% from 4%)
Others - 4%

Coalition Match-ups
On these results, and taking into account likely electorate results the following coalitions are possible

Leanest possible Labour Government:
Labour(44 seats) + Greens (10) + NZ First (6) + Progressives (1) = 61/120

National Opposition:
National (53 Seats) + Act (4) = 57/120

Neutral:
Maori Party (2 seats) + United Future (1 seat) = 3 seats


The polls gave a big boost to the Labour campaign and deflated the National Party campaign. For the first time there seemed to be positive movement in the polls in Labour's favour and it showed that a government was possible. This empowered Labour activists and the entire Labour Party and demoralized the National opposition. However it was only the first full week of campaigning and there could be more surprizes in store...
 
I think you are going to have to make the POD a little bigger, or put more to it, for the reason that National did heavily defeat Labour for the Party Vote - 45% to 34%. That is a huge margin in a PR system and one bad debate won't change that enough.

Possible other PODs

1. Somehow undermine ACT in such a way that they do not get into Parliament, yet their vote is dispersed. So maybe give them a higher party vote, but keep it below 5%, but that Rodney Hide narrowly loses Epsom.

Maybe make a stronger showing from National's candidate - either replace Worth well ahead of the election or somehow get him to show far better.

Hide has a majority of about 12k though, which would be hard to overcome

2. Let Labour win Ohariu from Dunne/United Future. Dunne won by a majority of 1000 votes in a tight three way race, where the NP and LP candidates both came within 1-2k of winning. Perhaps give the NP candidate a slightly bigger swing of say another 1000 votes from Dunne, which would put Labour over by a nose.. Maybe also give Dunne a slightly better performance in the national debates and give him more party vote, to further dilute the Right

3. The Green vote stays a little higher, making them a coalition partner that cannot be ignored. Loss of Peter Dunne would help that

Also, Helen Clark, whether or not one likes her or not, was one of our longer serving Prime Ministers, with 9 years in office. That is pretty good, especially given that this was during the MMP coalition building era.
 
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The 2010 Election

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PM Michael Cullen
Labour -
We are currently led by Prime Minister Michael Cullen who took over the reigns from Helen Clark after he resignation to head the UN Development programme in 2009. Under Clark, Labour won an unpreceedented fourth term in Government after John Key was ripped to shreds during the debate and following allegations of the Tranzrail Shares and National's coalition partner- Act having a high-ranking candidate who stole dead baby's identity to forge a passport (I shit you not.)

Following the election Labour formed a coalition minority government with the Progressives and the Greens rellying on confidence and supply agreements from the Maori Party and New Zealand First and passed an emergency budget in November 2008 with heavy economic stimulus to combat the worldwide economic recession. The stimulus ranged from frivolous such as the Maori Party's "$1000 to every adult for Christmas" to the "Green New Deal" which was intended to transition NZ to a carbon-neutral and sustainable economy.

Labour's first six months of 2009 passed by in a second honeymoon like phase as the stimulus took effect. Labour began catching up to National's lead - eventually outpolling them in May with Labour on 41% and National on 38%. It was in this seemingly assured, calm ship that Helen Clark resigned from her office to take up the role of Head of United Nations Development Programme. She left with her popularity having recovered and having left the country in a calm state with the country in the 'safe hands' of Dr. Michael Cullen, her loyal deputy and Finance MInister.

Unfortunately, this would not last. The National party opposition circulated an out of context video of Clark stating that she would "serve a full term" and used the by-election for the former Prime Minister's seat as a 'referrendum on Labour.'

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Meg Bates - MP for Te Atatu won on the back of a bitterly contested campaign...

The by-election campaign kicked off with Meg Bates a youngish university lecturer being selected as the Labour candidate. National selected Melissa Lee and the Green Party stood Russel Norman as the Green Party candidate. Surprisingly, the Unite Union - a militantly left trade union led by Union organizer stood Matt McCarten, head of the UNITE union as a candidate in the by-election - a move that would leave the left split 3-ways. Furthermore, the media environment was rapidly turning against the
Labour leaving a real risk and a real embarassment if the Prime Minister's former seat was lost. Compounding Labour's problems was of the Labour minority government's thin confidence and supply majority of two votes which would slip to a mere one if Mt. Albert were to be lost.

The campaign that would be waged would be one of the most dirty, and most brutal in recent by-election history. Melissa Lee proved quickly to be a lightweight making a series of media gaffes such as suggesting building a motorway to "keep the South Auckland criminals out" and making statements such as "I earn as much as a minimum wage worker does." Her campaign suffered a quick implosion leaving the battle to be fought among the three parties of the Left. Mud quickly flew from all parties as Labour was accused by Matt of "not being left enough." Sparks flew further when a news report leaked out of Matt McCarten suffering from terminal cancer - this fact was supposed to be confidential and real questions were asked about the origins of the news.

Despite this however, Meg Bates finished first in the by-election with 31% of the vote with Russel Norman being a close 29%, Matt McCarten coming third on 21% and Melissa Lee suffering a humiliating fourth place finish at 15%. The result, while keeping Labour's majority opened up real rifts between Labour and the Left. This rift would ultimately result in the formation of a new left-wing "UNITE" party under Matt McCarten and growing tensions between Labour and the Greens. Matt McCarten alleged he was the victim of a 'dirty tricks campaign' against him by Labour and many viewed the UNITE party as not only a vehicle for far-left politics in New Zealand but as a platform for McCarten to get his revenge. Prime Minister Cullen rubbed salt into McCarten's wounds when he called him a "fool and a tool of the Right."

(to be continued)
 
Please continue this. I think the first NZ political timeline here, although I could be mistaken. Good luck!

Subscribed. :)
 
Many thanks Fletcher

...

Although Labour won the Mt.Albert by-election, this came at a heavy price. The left was split and Labour was estranged from her green allies and the more far-left elements of New Zealand politics. The Mt.Albert by-election along with sustained National Party attacks saw Labour slip in the polls. A Colmar-Brunton poll released in late July after the by-election saw Labour slipping to 35%, a full 3 percentage points lower than their election results. However, if there was any consolation for Cullen it was that the slip was attributable to an increase in Green Party chances. Signs were that voters were defecting to Labour but were staying in the broad ideological left.


However, the damage was undoubtedly done and seeds of doubt were planted about the Cullen admininstration's trustworthiness. Labour slipped further and further in the polls and the National Party made further gains. By Christmas 2009 a Roy-Morgan poll showed Labour at 34%, National on 44%, Greens at 6%, UNITE at 3%, NZ First at 6% and Act at 4%.

If the year 2009 was grim for Labour 2010 would be a nightmare...
 
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