Omnicide: World War III In 1953
- Thread starter Kaiser Wilhelm the Tenth
- Start date
I was told the Soviets had few delivery platforms between 1949-53. While the Tu-4 could hit the continental United States via one-way flights, I read that the ones capable of carrying nuclear bombs didn't enter service until later in the closing stages of the Korean War.
marathag
Banned
The first air drop test of Joe-5(RDS-4) in August that was successful, while three more tests of Joe 6,7 and 8 over the month of September were very low yield test shots, not full yield tests, deliberate sub-critical implosion testing, IMO core geometry and for of neutron emitter tests other than Polonium.
That was also a bottleneck of US Bomb deployment, with the AEC controlling production and storage of that isotope.
I wish I was half the writer Sorario is.
But yeah, it won't be pretty.
However, would today's standards have ever come into being with such a massive PoD as this?
Some useful information on similar threads about USAF bombers, since the time period nearby 1946-1950:
World War III in 1948: Aftermath (US Victory)?
Plenty of people die, but then after a couple of weeks at best or couple of months at worst fighting stops and status quo is more or less preserved as neither side wants another total bloodbath just tree years after WWII(the West can win probably, but it's not certain and they still will be...
www.alternatehistory.com
How far can the Soviets go in 1946-50?
This scenario is that the Soviets shortly after the end of the Second World War set out to conquer the world, regardless of the cost. So let's assume two goals: 1- Conquer and maintain Eurasia indefinitely. The Soviets conquer continental Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia. 2- Complete...
www.alternatehistory.com
I mean, fundamentally a 1953 war would see a broad swathes of Eurasia levelled by nukes. The Red Army would be able to charge forward through it's superiority in weight of numbers and material and probably could still reach as far west as the Rhine, but the Americans have tactical nuclear weaponry pretty well integrated into their forces by this point and will blast away at the Soviets with them heavily. By the time they reach the river, they'll be hollowed out, their supply lines will be collapsing under the aftereffects of American strategic nuclear strikes, and the line will likely stabilize there briefly before the continuously reinforcing US and NATO begin to roll them back. The collateral damage means Germany will practically be extinguished though.
Nuclearwise Soviets would be able to get in some shots at Western Europe and Japan with a mix of Tu-16s, Tu-4s, and Il-28s. If the Soviets are willing to send some Tu-4s or Tu-16s on a one-way trip, they may also land some hits on the CONUS. But SAC will absolutely devastate the Soviets in return.
In any case, the Tu-16 had begun production in December 1952. In mid-53 it was still working it's way up to operational service, but it could be rushed forward. The available numbers would be very limited, however.
Nuclearwise Soviets would be able to get in some shots at Western Europe and Japan with a mix of Tu-16s, Tu-4s, and Il-28s. If the Soviets are willing to send some Tu-4s or Tu-16s on a one-way trip, they may also land some hits on the CONUS. But SAC will absolutely devastate the Soviets in return.
I don't know where you've read that. I actually found a translated record of Soviet Tu-4 production in 1947 at one point and it listed one of the Tu-4A's as being produced that very year. A full on Tu-4 test drop happened in 1951 as well, so the capability is well-established by 1953.
In any case, the Tu-16 had begun production in December 1952. In mid-53 it was still working it's way up to operational service, but it could be rushed forward. The available numbers would be very limited, however.
Basically, the scenario of Turtledove's The Hot War.
When the Tu-4 was first shown to Western observers in 1947, it was assumed to be one of the three B-29s that were interned in the USSR during World War II. Then when the fourth Tu-4 showed up, that's when the West knew they underestimated the Soviet's capabilities of reverse-engineering.
SAC was in a panic as Chicago or Detroit could be hit on a one-way trip to the United States. Radar and early warning systems were also bad at this period. The U.S. still relied on the Pinetree line in the border with Canada. By the, the Tu-4 or their Tu-4A variants would have already penetrated well into the CONUS. The Mid-Canada Line and the DEW Line only came later in the Cold War.
The U.S. would lose major cities in both the East and West Coast from one-way trips which would still hurt it, especially if New York, Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and D.C. is gone.
Yes, I agree that Germany would cease to exist because tactical nuclear weapons would be used their to thin out Soviet armies and tank formations.
There's no way the cities would be gone, as there were no multi-megaton weapons at the time. Basically the downtown areas would be gone if the Soviets manage to hit them, with most of the city area intact.
marathag
Banned
While radar coverage was spotty in Canada, it wasn't by time you got to major US Metro areas.
Upthread I listed the fighter groups the Tu-4 would have to get thru.
And that's assuming there are no navigation or mechanical issues on that long, one way trip
Was that air drop in August 53, and was it from a Soviet (Silver Plate) TU-4? Do we know what the first Soviet bomb weighed, or it's dimensions?
If they were good crews, they had a good chance to get through. In the early 60's the USAF did 3 exercises called "Sky Shield 1,2, and 3" involving full air stops on all civilian flights. SAC bombers, along with RAF Bomber Command all flew out of the country and then came back to attack major metro areas, and NORAD tried to stop them. The exact results have never been declassified but by all accounts, the results were not encouraging. Almost all the bombers destroyed their targets.
I'm not really familiar with the US air defence of the time, I was just saying that the cities being gone is a vast exaggeration even if the Soviets manage to get some bombs through.
The August '53 test was done by an Il-28.
Of the bomb types in the Soviet arsenal at the time, RDS-1 were basically organic copies of the Mark-3 (1.5 meters diameter and 4,670 kilograms) and the dimensions of RDS-2 were only marginally smaller, as was the weight (1.25 meters in diameter and 3,200 kilograms). Don't have any information on the RDS-3's dimensions or weight at the moment. RDS-4 was apparently 1/3rd the size of RDS-3 - whatever that was - and weighed 1,200 kilograms.
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marathag
Banned
2700 pounds and 39 inch diamete, so a reduction in size and weight ofbthe original 'Fatman implosiontype, and composite core with levitate pit geometry gave 28kt yield, soon increased to 42 with further improvements.
So smaller in diameter than the US Mark 6, but larger and heavier than the US Mark 7
Where did you get the diameter for RDS-4 from? I've only been able to find it's size in relation to the RDS-3 and I haven't found the diameter of RDS-3 yet.
Did Turtledove ever say how he managed to forget the existence of the B-36?