alternatehistory.com

Not sure whether I should put this here or in chat. I know-I know. The idea of a Republican-any Republican voting in favor of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act is hard to fathom. But if there was anyone in the Republican conference who might have made the decision to do so-Olympia Snowe was that Senator. She voted for the bill in conference despite reservations. When the administration and Reid discussed her reservations post-conference they were reportedly willing to accommodate her. In retrospect what her final demand would have been is difficult to know. But a yes vote from her is not unimaginable.

Presumably she wanted to kill the public option among other things. Although at least in October 2009 she claimed she could see herself supporting a compromise whereby such a plan would be triggered in areas where no other affordable insurance option existed. That's to the left of where Lieberman was. In retrospect that looks like a good idea to me-but Joe Lieberman probably would have killed even that plan. That she voted in conference indicates that she would not have pushed for a radically different bill as the price of her support.

Her vote against the bill was reportedly as much motivated by her distaste for how Harry Reid treated her in contrast to Max Baucus and even the administration itself. She reportedly felt that the process Reid was conducting sidelined her to the point where she had to oppose a bill she might otherwise have supported.

Of course from Reid and the administration's view Snowe was too deliberate. There was too much uncertainty in her decision for her vote to be relied upon and therefore Reid was comparatively uninterested in courting her. Reid apparently thought for some reason he wouldn't have 60 votes if he abandoned the public option before Lieberman killed that element of the bill which may mean he thought that the sort of compromise that might have won Snowe over would ironically kill the legislation.

That Snowe voted no seems to have had more to do with Harry Reid than with Barack Obama. Obama was reportedly more interested in securing Snowe's support than Reid was.

While Reid and the administration could not have relied upon Snowe's support the ideological difference between Snowe and the Democratic Senators who were key to passing the legislation was narrow and the kinds of concessions she would have demanded would also have helped win over people like Lieberman.

Now short of a personality transplant for Reid I'm not sure how this might have happened. But given her vote in conference, her general sympathy for the premise of healthcare reform, and her opposition being as much if not more about process as substance there was a slim but real possibility of her voting the other way. Let's say that she rather than Joe Lieberman is allowed to scuttle a full scale public option. Reid manages to secure his conference nonetheless. After a lot of vacillating Senator Snowe votes in favor of the bill.

With Snowe's support could the Senate bill have passed earlier than December 24th 2009?

Assuming that Scott Brown's victory doesn't cause her to change her mind, her support would at least mean that the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act would pass through the usual conference process rather than reconciliation. In turn that could mean that the legislation passes sooner. The reaction to Scott Brown's victory might be different if Snowe is the 61st vote and a vote to secure cloture even with a reduced Democratic majority. Meaning if she maintains her vote, Brown can't kill Healthcare Reform.

Admittedly there's perhaps a strong case that she could not have been won over. But presuming that this could in fact have occurred-what might the implications have been?
Top