Oliver Smedley, MP from Saffron Walden

Oliver Smedley was a well-known figure in British politics from the 1950s till his death in 1989. ...well, at least he was if you have an interest in classical liberalism and pirate radio. Oliver Smedley was that unusual clique that used to exist within the British Liberal Party: The classical liberals. Smedley, along with others such as the IEA's Arthur Seldon would eventually leave the party due to their opposition to the European Economic Community. But it should be noted that he stood in election for the Liberal Party in Saffron Walden twice, facing the Conservative incumbent (and later Chancellor of the Exchequer under Winston Churchill) Rab Butler, in 1950 and 1951. Both times he lost.

But I've been toying with the idea a little, and I've been curious about the following scenario: In the 1951 election, in a surprise upset, Oliver Smedley is elected MP for Saffron Walden in one of the largest swings of that election, and after that Saffron Walden remains a safe Liberal seat. In our timeline, after the 1951 election, the Liberal Party has merely 6 MPs (yeah, there's pretty much little Nick Clegg can do that will make him the most unsuccessful Liberal leader in history... :eek:), so with Smedley's surprising victory, that number is now upped to 7.

Comprising a seventh of the whole of the parliamentary Liberal Party, how much influence can Smedley exert on the direction the Liberal Party will take? Is it possible that he is elected party leader one day?

Discuss.
 
Oliver Smedley was a well-known figure in British politics from the 1950s till his death in 1989. ...well, at least he was if you have an interest in classical liberalism and pirate radio. Oliver Smedley was that unusual clique that used to exist within the British Liberal Party: The classical liberals. Smedley, along with others such as the IEA's Arthur Seldon would eventually leave the party due to their opposition to the European Economic Community. But it should be noted that he stood in election for the Liberal Party in Saffron Walden twice, facing the Conservative incumbent (and later Chancellor of the Exchequer under Winston Churchill) Rab Butler, in 1950 and 1951. Both times he lost.

But I've been toying with the idea a little, and I've been curious about the following scenario: In the 1951 election, in a surprise upset, Oliver Smedley is elected MP for Saffron Walden in one of the largest swings of that election, and after that Saffron Walden remains a safe Liberal seat. In our timeline, after the 1951 election, the Liberal Party has merely 6 MPs (yeah, there's pretty much little Nick Clegg can do that will make him the most unsuccessful Liberal leader in history... :eek:), so with Smedley's surprising victory, that number is now upped to 7.

Comprising a seventh of the whole of the parliamentary Liberal Party, how much influence can Smedley exert on the direction the Liberal Party will take? Is it possible that he is elected party leader one day?

Discuss.

The death of the classical liberal faction (as opposed to the Neo-Gladstonian mob currently running things) was pretty much a done deal IIRC, but if he's charismatic and influential enough the butterflies could be huge.

And it should be noted that in terms of seat fluctuations, Clegg is the least successful leader of the Liberal Democrats in history. In terms of vote percentage, Paddy Ashdown is the least successful (1997 saw the lowest Lib Dem vote ever, IIRC) and David Steel the most (1983, if you count The Alliance). Clegg remains the leader to have lost the most seats in a single election.
 
The death of the classical liberal faction (as opposed to the Neo-Gladstonian mob currently running things) was pretty much a done deal IIRC, but if he's charismatic and influential enough the butterflies could be huge.

Oh, but I like the Neo-Gladstonian mob currently running things. :eek:

In any case, I would assume that Jo Grimond's leadership from 1956 to 1967 can't be butterflied away, but if his ascent to the leadership comes down to a narrow victory in a race against Oliver Smedley, then it is possible that the two men work out a deal and Smedley is then made economy spokesman. Smedley has but one condition to give his support for Grimond, and that is that Grimond scrap his calls for Britain to join the EEC, but rather give his support to EFTA, which Grimond agrees to. The change in policy is of course a significant one, but considering that Smedley otherwise gave Grimond full freedom when it comes to policy, Grimond agrees to it.

During Grimond's years as Liberal leader, the party begins to become established as a centre-right alternative to the paternalistic, corporatist Conservatives, taking lots of ideas from the IEA via Arthur Seldon.

With such a direction, how many MPs can we assume that the Liberal Party will have by the general election of 1964? Is it possible to assume that they will in fact do a somewhat better election than they did in our timeline. Many traditional Conservative voters, disgusted by the scandals that have plagued the Tories in recent years finds the Liberal Party a viable way to protest vote against the Douglas-Home government?

Or will they in fact do a worse election, as they have taken another direction than becoming the "non-socialist progressive alternative"?
 
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