Oil Discovered in Mesopotamia in 1906 or earlier - Formerly The Turkish Dreadnoughts Were Delivered

[NOMISYRRUC]

IIRC both ships were on the point of delivery when they were seized and also IIRC they were completed later than planned because the Ottoman Empire was short of cash after the Balkan Wars. What if the Turks had enough money to have the ships delivered in June 1914 along with a useful supply of ammunition and spare parts?

Souchon was able to make a great deal of mischief with one battle cruiser and one light cruiser. Could he have done even more with 2 dreadnought battleships to back them up?

I doubt that they would have changed the result of World War One, but they would have made the war in the Mediterranean more interesting.

I'm not sure that the absence of Agincourt and Erin would have made much difference at Jutland. The British had a few spare dreadnoughts to take their places. This included Dreadnought herself. IOTL she was flagship of the 3rd Battle Squadron which consisted of the newest pre-dreadnoughts. The squadron had recently been transferred from the Grand Fleet to guard the southern North Sea.

If they both survived the Great War I think they would have been kept by Turkey, which was allowed to keep Goeben IOTL. Would they have altered the balance of power in the Mediterranean between the world wars? Would both sides have made a bigger effort to persuade Turkey to join their side in World War II. OTOH would they instead have helped Turkey maintain its neutrality.

Edit 10th November 2016

When I looked up the ordering date for Resadiye in my copy of Conway's for Post 32, it also said that a sister ship called Mahmud Resad V was laid down at Armstrongs on 6th December 1911, 4 months after her. But following the outbreak of the first Balkan War Armstrong demanded better guarantees of payment and work was suspended, not being resumed afterwards. Therefore I am going to amend the OP to say that what if the Ottoman Government was able to satisfy Armstrong and Mahmud Resad V was delivered by June 1914 too.

Edit 24th November 2016 (Also see Post 107 on Page 6)

When I edited this OP on 10th November I didn't explain how the Ottoman Government was able to provide the better guarantees of payment that Armstrong demanded.

I'm now going to provide the reason by saying that the Germans used the oil concession that they obtained from the Ottoman Government in 1904 (which IOTL they allowed to lapse) to start prospecting for oil in Mesopotamia straight away. IOTL prospecting for oil in what by then was Iraq began in 1925 and oil was struck in October 1927. Therefore I think it's reasonable to say that oil was discovered in 1906 ITTL.

Are there any technological problems with that? E.g. like the ones that make it hard to discover and extract the oil from Libya between the world wars.

I haven't been able to find out when the first Iraqi oil field went into production. Does any body have the date? Although I have written that oil was discovered in 1906 ITTL, the closer to 1900 (as this is the post 1900 forum) the better.

The Ottoman Navy of 1914 of OTL consisted of the 2 German pre-dreadnoughts purchased in 1910, 2 protected cruisers completed in 1904 and 8 destroyers, but 4 of them were small 300 tonners. The order for the dreadnoughts unbalanced the fleet and in 1914 the Ottomans ordered amongst other things 16 destroyers (4 from Hawthorn Leslie, 6 from France, 4 from Italy and 2 from the yard Armstrong-Vickers were to manage in Smyrna), but World War One meant that few of them were built and none were delivered.

Therefore I'm going to say that the richer Ottoman Empire also ordered 4 destroyers to screen the dreadnoughts from the Armstrong-Vickers syndicate in June 1911. They were built by Hawthorn Leslie and should be ready for delivery before the end of 1913.

I'm going to change 2 more things. Firstly the protected cruiser Drama, which IOTL was built in Italy and confiscated by the Italians in the Italo-Turkish War and commissioned into the Regia Navale was ITTL built in a British yard, probably Armstrong. The second thing is that all Ottoman warships ordered after 1910 were oil burners and all existing ships had been converted from coal to oil by 1914.

Edit - 25th November 2016

The title of the thread is amended from The Turkish Dreadnoughts Were Delivered to the above as the means required for that to be possible will change many other things.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Would Turkey have joined the Central Powers in WWI if they had been delivered? I know a lot of the 'new' research implies that the deal to join was agreed before they were impounded, but what if that was the straw that broke the camel's back so to speak?

Would it have meant the success of the Galipoli Landings? The presence of these two major ships forces the Royal Navy to asign better Warships than the older vessels they used OTL?

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Would Turkey have joined the Central Powers in WWI if they had been delivered? I know a lot of the 'new' research implies that the deal to join was agreed before they were impounded, but what if that was the straw that broke the camel's back so to speak?

Would it have meant the success of the Galipoli Landings? The presence of these two major ships forces the Royal Navy to asign better Warships than the older vessels they used OTL?

The straw was Souchon taking the Turkish Fleet out for manoeuvres in the Black Sea and bombarding Sevastopol. I think that doesn't change if the 2 dreadnoughts were delivered.

I'm not sure about the Dardanelles bombardments and Gallipoli. They did have the battle cruiser Inflexible and the brand new dreadnought Queen Elisabeth, at that time the most powerful warship in the world. Without Agincourt and Erin in the Grand Fleet these ships might not have been sent in the first place.

 

[HMS Warspite]

The straw was Souchon taking the Turkish Fleet out for manoeuvres in the Black Sea and bombarding Sevastopol. I think that doesn't change if the 2 dreadnoughts were delivered.

I'm not sure about the Dardanelles bombardments and Gallipoli. They did have the battle cruiser Inflexible and the brand new dreadnought Queen Elisabeth, at that time the most powerful warship in the world. Without Agincourt and Erin in the Grand Fleet these ships might not have been sent in the first place.

One factor in this discussion is missing, namely the influence of the contemporary First Sealord, Winston Churchill, who's idea the whole Gallipoly affair was, including the sending of the HMS Queen Elisabeth, no matter the Grand Fleet wishes, who even then opposed to it. Churchill bypassed the protest and send the biggest ship of the Navy anyway, just like a few decades later he did again sending HMS Prince of Wales to Singapore. In this thinking, the operation would have been executed almost identical as in the OTL, Turkish Dreadnoughts, or not. The Allies had plenty of ships to spare and will to proceed against the Turks, since it was not just the Royal Navy here, but France as wel.

 

[173rd LRRP]

The Turks were greatly incensed that the ships they had paid for by public donations had been taken away from them. They might well have sat out the war or been sympathetic to the Allies. The Dardenelles would probably have remained open to shipping and that Russia would not have to fight a two front war.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

One factor in this discussion is missing, namely the influence of the contemporary First Sealord, Winston Churchill, who's idea the whole Gallipoly affair was, including the sending of the HMS Queen Elisabeth, no matter the Grand Fleet wishes, who even then opposed to it. Churchill bypassed the protest and send the biggest ship of the Navy anyway, just like a few decades later he did again sending HMS Prince of Wales to Singapore. In this thinking, the operation would have been executed almost identical as in the OTL, Turkish Dreadnoughts, or not. The Allies had plenty of ships to spare and will to proceed against the Turks, since it was not just the Royal Navy here, but France as well.

True. However, the first six months of World War One were the only time when the Germans got anywhere near parity with the Grand Fleet.

Quote from The Encyclopaedia of Sea Warfare

In November 1914 the German submarine U18 penetrated Scapa Flow. Though rammed and damaged by a trawler before she could find targets for her torpedoes, Jellicoe moved his base, first to Loch Ewe, then to Loch Swilly, until Scapa's defences could be strengthened. Although he now had 30 dreadnoughts and battlecruisers under his command, six were away refitting, the Audacious had been sunk by a mine, and Cradock's defeat had brought Admiralty orders to send three battlecruisers out into the Atlantic. So for the time being the High Seas Fleet was numerically as strong, Jellicoe knew that ship for ship the German dreadnoughts were tougher than the British. In these circumstances he decided that he would only fight a fleet action in the northern half of the North Sea where the Germans could not rely on submarines to help them. Although such caution did not accord with tradition, the Admiralty assured Jellicoe of their confidence in his determination thus to maintain the Allied blockade.

Without Agincourt and Erin, Jellicoe only had 28 battleships and battlecruisers with the result that the Germans have a slight numerical advantage.

AFIAK French had 4 dreadnoughts during this period and AFAIK they were all at Malta keeping a watch on the Strait of Otranto in case the Austrian Fleet, which included 3 dreadnoughts made a sortie and the Italians which had 3 dreadnoughts at the outbreak of World War One were still neutral.

OTOH the Entente navies would have to at least keep a watch on the Dardanelles in case the 2 Turkish dreadnoughts and Goeben made a sortie into the Mediterranean. It might be a choice between sending battlecruisers to hunt for Von Spee or using them to mount a blockade on Souchon.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

The Turks were greatly incensed that the ships they had paid for by public donations had been taken away from them. They might well have sat out the war or been sympathetic to the Allies. The Dardenelles would probably have remained open to shipping and that Russia would not have to fight a two front war.

After Souchon bombards Sevastopol on 29th October 1914 with 2 ships flying Turkish flags they are (in common with OTL) in the war whether they want to be or not.

 

[jahenders]

The Turks were greatly incensed that the ships they had paid for by public donations had been taken away from them. They might well have sat out the war or been sympathetic to the Allies. The Dardenelles would probably have remained open to shipping and that Russia would not have to fight a two front war.

Agreed. It was the combination of the UK refusing to provide those ships, couple with Souchon making it through to Istanbul, that apparently got Turkey to ultimately fall in with Germany.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Agreed. It was the combination of the UK refusing to provide those ships, couple with Souchon making it through to Istanbul, that apparently got Turkey to ultimately fall in with Germany.

Disagreed. It was what Souchon did with those ships after making it through to Istanbul by committing an act of war against Russia that got Turkey to ultimately fall in with Germany.

 

[Halagaz]

Souchon's raid on the Russian ports was authorized by and planned together with Enver Pasha. It's doubtful that the Ottomans will let Souchon do it in this scenario. It's not certain that the Ottoman Empire will even sign an alliance with Germany, let alone adhere to it.

 

[HMS Warspite]

True. However, the first six months of World War One were the only time when the Germans got anywhere near parity with the Grand Fleet.

Quote from The Encyclopaedia of Sea WarfareWithout Agincourt and Erin, Jellicoe only had 28 battleships and battlecruisers with the result that the Germans have a slight numerical advantage.

AFIAK French had 4 dreadnoughts during this period and AFAIK they were all at Malta keeping a watch on the Strait of Otranto in case the Austrian Fleet, which included 3 dreadnoughts made a sortie and the Italians which had 3 dreadnoughts at the outbreak of World War One were still neutral.

OTOH the Entente navies would have to at least keep a watch on the Dardanelles in case the 2 Turkish dreadnoughts and Goeben made a sortie into the Mediterranean. It might be a choice between sending battlecruisers to hunt for Von Spee or using them to mount a blockade on Souchon.

German advantage in 1914??? Not so much, as the Hochseeflotte at that time consisted in the Northsea 18 dreadnoughts and just 4 battlecruisers (Von der Tann, Moltke, Seydlitz and Derfflinger), since SMS Goeben was not in the Northsea at the time, but in the Mediterranean. That is just 22 capital ships of a Dreadnought type. 28 British Dreadnoughts and battlecruisers were still a significant advantage in numbers then. If you also include pre-Dreadnoughts and armored cruisers, the British had an even larger number still, with most of these of larger dimensions than their German counterparts.

 

[fastmongrel]

The Turks were going to side with the Central Powers before the Dreadnoughts were seized on 22nd August. A pact was signed with Germany on the 2nd August and the Austro-Hungarians on the 5th https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ottoman–German_alliance

 

[Knightmare]

The Turks were greatly incensed that the ships they had paid for by public donations had been taken away from them. They might well have sat out the war or been sympathetic to the Allies. The Dardenelles would probably have remained open to shipping and that Russia would not have to fight a two front war.

Heck, it'd mean the ANZACs and British forces don't get wasted in Gallipoli and Greece.

 

[zert]

It could be a factor. Might it be that Turkey becones a Central Leaning Neutal?

 

[Deleted member 94680]

It could be a factor. Might it be that Turkey becones a Central Leaning Neutal?

Or a Central-allied (the treaty was signed already, by several accounts) non-beligerent. More in the sense that they're allied and don't really do anything as they're waiting for Russia to fall apart as they feel more secure with the Sultan Osman and Reşadiye in their fleet.

Also, if 'perfidious Albion' don't impound the vessels, does that mean that the Ottoman-British Naval Treaty and Mission continue? Hard for Souchon to steam into port if Admiral Limpus had been waiting for him.

 

[Halagaz]

The Turks were going to side with the Central Powers before the Dreadnoughts were seized on 22nd August. A pact was signed with Germany on the 2nd August and the Austro-Hungarians on the 5th https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ottoman–German_alliance

The dreadnoughts were seized on July 31...before the signing of the German-Ottoman alliance (admittedly, only a few days before), and long before the alliance was finalized and became reality.

 

[Knightmare]

The dreadnoughts were seized on July 31...before the signing of the German-Ottoman alliance (admittedly, only a few days before), and long before the alliance was finalized and became reality.

Honestly, seizing them managed to cut through the Turkish bureaucracy and get them to sign. I believe they'd been deliberating about it, then the Dreads get nailed, and Turkey gets outraged and signs.

 

[Halagaz]

Honestly, seizing them managed to cut through the Turkish bureaucracy and get them to sign. I believe they'd been deliberating about it, then the Dreads get nailed, and Turkey gets outraged and signs.

I think so. Then, of course, Britain joins the war two days later, and the Ottomans understandably lose confidence, start looking for better terms and sending feelers to the Entente. Then this doesn't work out, but the alliance bogs down into even bigger delays, deliberations and uncertainties...all a huge diplomatic mess.

Still, the Ottomans did keep their options open before - and even after - the dreads were taken, which leads me to believe this could nudge them over into neutrality.

 

[jsb]

Without Agincourt and Erin, Jellicoe only had 28 battleships and battlecruisers with the result that the Germans have a slight numerical advantage.

Would the numerical advantage to the Germans only happen if you count pre dreads ? If you can count them why not count RN pre dreads as well ?
At the start of WW1 Germany only had 14 (+1 finished 2 days later) dreadnoughts and 4 BC v RN with 20 Dreadnoughts and 9 BC since the RN had far more predreadnughts than Germany why is this a problem?

Or a Central-allied (the treaty was signed already, by several accounts) non-beligerent. More in the sense that they're allied and don't really do anything as they're waiting for Russia to fall apart

Don't they have to side with Germany or risk that Russia will not fall and then after defeating Germany just steamrollers south ?

 

[Knightmare]

Don't they have to side with Germany or risk that Russia will not fall and then after defeating Germany just steamrollers south ?

Not really.

On one hand, they didn't like Russia. On the other hand, the Young Turks had just taken over in '08, so picking yet another fight with Russia could prove unwise.