Oil and an independent Scotland

[Matthew Craw]

I';m rather annoyed that anyone on here (sorry if it was not you!) can claim scotland is well governed, it depends on public sector employment, recieved massive transfers and has no better public services, its economy is sclerotic and socialist and its politicians like it that way.

Rant over.

Well, it wasn't me, although I wouldn't go anything like as far as you in criticising the Scottish Parliament, which still has infintiely less control over Scotland' economy than London does. I also don't see the relevance of any of this to the West Lothian question.

Scotland is neither more taxed nor more regulated than England, our inferior economic perfomance is not primarily the result of government policy but rather of the fact that we were far more dependant on manufacturing than England as a whole and have thus had a harder time recovering from deindustirlisation. If the comparison were made simply between Scotland and the North of England I don't expect we'd see a radical difference.

In some respects Scottish public services are better than English, but it's pretty clearly true that they aren't as efficient, whih may be due simply to having greater burdens to carry (i.e. higher unemployment, lower private wealth and a less healthy population)

 

[Wozza]

I would argue that the north of England has the same problems as scotland, over dependence on the public sector, sucking out labour that should be in the private sector driving growth.

the higher burdens are also a consequence of a lack of economic dynamism. Have you not tacitly admitted that higher public spending does not solve these problems?

 

[Tielhard]

(1) If Scotland was to declare independence from the rest of the UK, how much of the North Sea Oil Reserves would it be able to assert control over?

The international division of the North Sea reserves between Norway, the UK and other nations would be unlikely to change as a result of Scottish independence. So what we are talking about here is the division of the UK reserves between an independent Scotland and either England or a rump UK.

At the present time the UK North Sea reserves are divided up between the Scots and the English by "The Continental Shelf (Jurisdictional) Order 1968". Currently this places 90% of the reserves in Scottish waters but this percentage changes as new reserves are found. However, it is not unlikely that in the run up to independence the English/UK rump may wish to renegotiate the Order somewhat. This may be more significant on the Atlantic frontier where there have been a number of finds. It may be that the English would wish to retain control of Hirta for strategic reasons for example but I can see the Scots resisting that, however the case of Rockall is much less clear. From each of these islands a 500 mile economic zone including oil reserves could be exerted.

(2) How long before North Sea Oil Reserves run out?

Less than one might hope if one were Scottish. Using some of the figures quoted elsewhere in this thread of 4.7E9 barrels and production rate of 2.5E6 barrels a day gives 5 years. I have some info. from a UKOOA site which gives about 6 years. If I use the DTI figures of Proven, Probable and Possible reserves for 2003 I get a figure of around 14 years for the North Sea. Certainly new extraction techniques and new finds will bring this up a bit but we are looking at the flow drying up between 2020 and 2030. There may well be more reserves on the Atlantic frontier but it is going to take new technology (a combination of Brazilian deep anchored platforms and UK heavy seas platforms) to get it out even if they find it. As this will be expensive don’t expect work to begin until it is economically favourable.

Please be clear the above discussion addresses crude oil not natural gas which should last a little longer.

However, Scotland and the waters around it are energy paradise. The Scots have many sites for wind farms (both on and off shore) and hydropower facilities. They also have the expertise from the oil industry to develop both offshore wave and tidal energy farms.

(3) How do you see Scotland ceding from the UK, and what would happen then? Would Wales and Ireland follow suit? What would Scot-British relations be like?

Wales, who knows, but I cannot see Scotland going before Ulster unites with the rest of (the island of) Ireland.

I see Scotland leaving the kingdom in one of two ways either peaceably by democratic consent within the European Union or …

It is a cold an misty morning on a barren heath between York and Edinburgh. To the south the massed Challengers and Warriors of the British Army lie waiting for the rebel onslaught, overhead the Typhoons rip the sky. On the north of the field a small army of Glasgow Celtic supporters, highland dancers and fiscal managers wait placidly for battle to commence. Before them mounted on a Jimmy Crankie chafing at her bit, the king over the water Sean Connery, to his right his prime minister Alex Salmond riding a fine Rab Nesbit and on his left hand that legendary Scots hero Mel Gibson riding his old faithful Andy Stewart. The king lifts high his football and yells "They can take our lives but they can never take our ….. oil!" and throws it forward as the Scots being to advance. There can be no question victory and independence are at hand.

 

[Matthew Craw]

I would argue that the north of England has the same problems as scotland, over dependence on the public sector, sucking out labour that should be in the private sector driving growth.

the higher burdens are also a consequence of a lack of economic dynamism. Have you not tacitly admitted that higher public spending does not solve these problems?

Higher public spending need not necessarily be bad for growth as such, it really depends on how it's being financed, and on the breakdown of the economy in question. Public sector borrowing is bad for growth, it raisees market interest rates and soaks up available funds for invesment. However, the same need not be true of taxation. For instance, high taxes on luxury goods and consumer durables should, if anything, have a benficial effect on investment, although also reducing demand. Whether this helps or hurts the economy really depends on how important manufacturing and retail are, an how export-orientated the economy is. OTOH, if an economy is suffering from low demand then high taxes on savings, for instance, could help stimulate economic recovery. This is all without considering the positive effects of the public sector itself which, no matter how inefficient, will stimulate income and demand for the private sector.

None of this really addresses my main point however, which is that Scotland is not significantly more taxed or regulated than the Uk as a whole. Moreover, within Scotland there is a marked divide between Glasgow and the central belt, which are doing poorly, and Edinbrgh and the East, which have been doing quite well and have one of the highest rates of inward migration of any region in Europe.

It's not really necessary to rely on neo-libreal econmoic theory to explain Scotland'r relatively poor econmic growth, lower available investment capital, the attractions of migration to wealthier regions for much of the countries natural business elite and the residual effects of deindustrialisation are quite suficient.

 

[wkwillis]

There is also the argument over how much of the oil belongs to the Orkneys/Scotland vs how much belongs to Norway. Britain signed away a lot of Scots continental shelf that on precedent belonged to Orkneys/Scotland. Scotland could renegotiate that with Norway the way that Timor renegotiated their sea boundaries with Australia after Indonesia got turfed out.
On the other hand, in ten years it will be who gets stuck with the bill for cleaning up the mess, instead, and Scots independence may change polarity, so to speak, the way it happened in Ireland after Labor got so many seats in Parliament and the Irish MPs were starting to look like coalition material against the Tories.

 

[BurningWickerman]

I would of thought instead of rashly chucking Scottish MPs out of Westminster and practically asking them too secede, why not just let them only vote on matters that concern them e.g defence, foreign affairs and taxation. A lot easier really.

 

[Tielhard]

1) What can Scotland, as a successor state to the UK offer Norway in order to induce them to renegotiate an international boundary?

Why would they want too? The oil runs out soon.

2) Clean up is not going to be that much of an issue. Concrete the wells and either float out or topple the platforms. As I understand it the operators have been investing for it since Brent Spar.

 

[Jason]

2020-The British Isles Divided

2009 Following the surprise success of Liberal English Party (LEP) in the recent elections it has become clear that the UK cannot survive in its current form. The LEP was formed after the 2005 general election as a party to represent English views, in a similar way to the various nationalistic parties in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. It won early support by insisting on fairer funding for England in comparison to Wales and Scotland. Despite fears amongst certain elements of the media and existing political parties, this new party quickly established itself as being 'liberal' and 'democratic' by refusing to accept any member who belong to any right-wing organisation such as the British National Party, favouring closer links with Europe (though opposing a federl superstate) and adopting an enlightened policy on immigration and asylum seekers. The biggest surprise however was its support for greater devolution for Wales and Scotland, in return for the support of their nationalist MPs for the establishment of the English Parliment, situated in York.

2012 The general election sees a hung parliment, with a coalition government formed between the LEP and the Liberal Democrats. The Scottish National Party wins almost all seats in the Scottish Parliment and 75% of its seats at Westminster. The SNP insists on a referendum on indepedence, and recieves the support of the LEP, selling it to its supporters on the fact that this will free up a good part the £10 Billion English tax payers pay each year that goes to Scotland for English services. The result is a vote for independence and, somewhat of a surprise, for a 'Kingdom of Scotland' under the House of Windsor.

2014, Scotland is independent, with Elizabeth I of the Scots as its monarch. The scottish elements of the British Armed Forces form the basis of the new Royal Scottish Defence Force. However the border between England and Scotland is declared opened and the Pound continues to be legal currency in Scotland; Scotland has chosen to adopt the Euro, which has for 7 years been accepted in almost every shop in the UK anyway-this annoys many diehard nationalists who see this as exchanging English control for European control. Despite various predictions, the economy of the rump UK does not collapse on the transfer of Nrth sea oil to Scotland, infact independence seems to benefit both sides.

2016 There has been an increase in public support for an independent England! This has partly been caused by the benefits of extra expenditure spent in England. Palid Cyrmu (PC), whose policy has (despite demands of soem members) generally been for self-rule, now favours independence.

2018 With PC now advocating independence, LEP adopts this as its core policy at the general election and wins a clear majority. However to oversee the ending of the union between Wales and England, it forms a coalition with PC. The issue of Northern Ireland is a problem as the province is now at peace and favours continued Union with England. The LEP, despite the wishes of some of its members, decides to agree to this. After the election and despite the success of PC, it becomes clear that a refferndum is required in Wales and the outcome is a shock. Western Wales votes for independence, especially in the north and south western parts with a closer vote in the central areas. However the eastern parts and South Pembrokeshire (effectively an English outpost in Welsh Wales) vote for continuted Union with England. So a compromise is reach and Two (!) Wales emerge....

St Davids Day 2019 the Union of England and Wales ends, or at least in part. The Republic of Wales (Cymru Republic?) is declared, with its capital at Carmarthern (see note below). The rump principality of Wales (western Wales plus South Pembrokeshire) remains in union with England and Northern Ireland as the 'the Union of the Kingdom of England and Principality of Wales and Province of Northern Ireland', often referred to as the 'Rump Union' for short.
Note-the republic's capital is at Carmarthen as Cardiff voted to remain part of the Union (attributed to the fact that, despite the increasing use of Welsh in the West, a good part of the population either worked in England, used it for services or generally just didn't see any advantage in independence). Swansea was not chosen, despite its size, as the vote had been much closer there plus the historical reason that Carmarthen is seen as a 'Welsh Town' rather than a Norman creation (3 years at Uni in Carmerthen taught me that).

As 2020 draws to a close... The Rump Union continues to prosper and retains all the remains of the British Empire. It can be said to be enjoying a 'golden age' with well funded services and, partly due to the enlightened social policies of the LEP, a drastic reduction in racial tensions and England appears to be resuming its sometimes perceived hsitorical role of welcoming new comers. Most interesting has been, despite a continued membership of the EU, a renewed internationalism with increased role in the UN and adopting a role as the 'Worlds Bobby', helping to maintain the peace and finding its peacekeepers welcomed where ever they are sent. The English Parliment continues at York with the Rump Parliment still at Westminster.
The Kingdom of Scotland also prospers and whilst more involved with the EU than the Rump, it too is adopting an international role, if much smaller. Anglo-Scottish relations are surprisingly positive, with some now asking why it couldn't have been this good during the Union?
However the Republic of Wales is suffering. The loss of the pro-English West has caused considerable problems. The Rump has offered considerable support and even offered an open border, unfortuantely for reasons no one (esp the Welsh) can work out, PC leadership adopted a hardline policy and insisted on checkpoints and border controls. This policy caused major problems dues to poor transport links between the north and south of the REpublic. The Rump has tried to adopt a friendly policy but the Republic seems to see a lot of the support and aid offered as Neo-Colonialism. The situation has not been helped by the fact that old tensions between North and South have reemerged in the Republic. Already a 'federal republic' is being suggested, with some even calling for a further division into two republics, that of Gwyneedd in the north and another in the south, possibly called Dyfed.