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In July of 1977, Somalia invaded the weakened Ethiopian state in an attempt to gain the Somali-inhabited Ogaden region. Initially, the war went very well, and the Somalis threw the Ethiopians back. However, only months before the Somali invasion, Ethiopia had aligned itself to the Soviet Union. Initially, the Soviets had tried to mediate between their two "Marxist allies" and were supplying both sides. However, as the Somali victories piled up, the Soviets ditched the Somalis and threw its lot in with the Ethiopians, flooding the country with weapons, advisers and arranging for the Cubans to send troops to support the Ethiopians. This would prove the turning point for the war, and with Cuban and Soviet support the Ethiopians would drive the (now Western-supported) Somalis from their country.

The cost of the war and the humiliation of defeat were probably the two greatest factors that wrecked the Said Barre regime and led to the Libertarian paradise that is modern Somalia.

So here's a few WIs.

1) What if the Soviets don't decide the Derg regime in Ethiopia is "developing into a genuine Marxist–Leninist state". So the Soviets don't approach Mengistu with secret offers of aid and the Ethiopians don't close the US military mission/communications centre in Ethiopia in April 1977. My bet in that the US will eventually provide aid to the Ethiopians and that the Soviets will eventually aid the Somalis (both unwillingly) as the local confrontation becomes seen as another cold war battlefield. The question is, does Carter (who really cared about human rights and is thus not going to be finding any enthusiasm for supporting the brutal Derg) send enough aid to Ethiopia soon enough to make a difference?

2) What if the Soviets make their secret alliance with Ethiopia, meaning the US mission is still closed, but does not intervene to support Ethiopia. Maybe the Derg are so brutal to the local socialist parties that even the Soviets are put off. Maybe the Soviets just aren't feeling interventionist (though I'm not sure why). So the Soviets and Cubans don't patch together the broken Ethiopian army and the Somalis main enemy becomes their logistical challenges. Can the Somalis win the war before the US gets its act together and repairs relations with Ethiopia enough to get military aid flowing to the Derg?

3) What happens if the Somalis do somehow win? Does the victory allow the Somalis to avoid collapse? Does this mean that the Somalis will make another try at annexing the Kenyan Somali region. I don't expect anyone would recognize the Somali annexation of Ogaden. It may, however, encourage other ambitious 3rd world despots to pursue territorial acquisition by force of arms...

fasquardon
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