In July of 1977, Somalia invaded the weakened Ethiopian state in an attempt to gain the Somali-inhabited Ogaden region. Initially, the war went very well, and the Somalis threw the Ethiopians back. However, only months before the Somali invasion, Ethiopia had aligned itself to the Soviet Union. Initially, the Soviets had tried to mediate between their two "Marxist allies" and were supplying both sides. However, as the Somali victories piled up, the Soviets ditched the Somalis and threw its lot in with the Ethiopians, flooding the country with weapons, advisers and arranging for the Cubans to send troops to support the Ethiopians. This would prove the turning point for the war, and with Cuban and Soviet support the Ethiopians would drive the (now Western-supported) Somalis from their country.

The cost of the war and the humiliation of defeat were probably the two greatest factors that wrecked the Said Barre regime and led to the Libertarian paradise that is modern Somalia.

So here's a few WIs.

1) What if the Soviets don't decide the Derg regime in Ethiopia is "developing into a genuine Marxist–Leninist state". So the Soviets don't approach Mengistu with secret offers of aid and the Ethiopians don't close the US military mission/communications centre in Ethiopia in April 1977. My bet in that the US will eventually provide aid to the Ethiopians and that the Soviets will eventually aid the Somalis (both unwillingly) as the local confrontation becomes seen as another cold war battlefield. The question is, does Carter (who really cared about human rights and is thus not going to be finding any enthusiasm for supporting the brutal Derg) send enough aid to Ethiopia soon enough to make a difference?

2) What if the Soviets make their secret alliance with Ethiopia, meaning the US mission is still closed, but does not intervene to support Ethiopia. Maybe the Derg are so brutal to the local socialist parties that even the Soviets are put off. Maybe the Soviets just aren't feeling interventionist (though I'm not sure why). So the Soviets and Cubans don't patch together the broken Ethiopian army and the Somalis main enemy becomes their logistical challenges. Can the Somalis win the war before the US gets its act together and repairs relations with Ethiopia enough to get military aid flowing to the Derg?

3) What happens if the Somalis do somehow win? Does the victory allow the Somalis to avoid collapse? Does this mean that the Somalis will make another try at annexing the Kenyan Somali region. I don't expect anyone would recognize the Somali annexation of Ogaden. It may, however, encourage other ambitious 3rd world despots to pursue territorial acquisition by force of arms...

fasquardon
 

CaliGuy

Banned
In July of 1977, Somalia invaded the weakened Ethiopian state in an attempt to gain the Somali-inhabited Ogaden region. Initially, the war went very well, and the Somalis threw the Ethiopians back. However, only months before the Somali invasion, Ethiopia had aligned itself to the Soviet Union. Initially, the Soviets had tried to mediate between their two "Marxist allies" and were supplying both sides. However, as the Somali victories piled up, the Soviets ditched the Somalis and threw its lot in with the Ethiopians, flooding the country with weapons, advisers and arranging for the Cubans to send troops to support the Ethiopians. This would prove the turning point for the war, and with Cuban and Soviet support the Ethiopians would drive the (now Western-supported) Somalis from their country.

The cost of the war and the humiliation of defeat were probably the two greatest factors that wrecked the Said Barre regime and led to the Libertarian paradise that is modern Somalia.

So here's a few WIs.

1) What if the Soviets don't decide the Derg regime in Ethiopia is "developing into a genuine Marxist–Leninist state". So the Soviets don't approach Mengistu with secret offers of aid and the Ethiopians don't close the US military mission/communications centre in Ethiopia in April 1977.

Which came first--the secret offers of aid or the closure of this military mission center?

My bet in that the US will eventually provide aid to the Ethiopians and that the Soviets will eventually aid the Somalis (both unwillingly) as the local confrontation becomes seen as another cold war battlefield. The question is, does Carter (who really cared about human rights and is thus not going to be finding any enthusiasm for supporting the brutal Derg) send enough aid to Ethiopia soon enough to make a difference?

I doubt that Carter will send over enough aid to the Derg in this TL.

2) What if the Soviets make their secret alliance with Ethiopia, meaning the US mission is still closed, but does not intervene to support Ethiopia. Maybe the Derg are so brutal to the local socialist parties that even the Soviets are put off. Maybe the Soviets just aren't feeling interventionist (though I'm not sure why). So the Soviets and Cubans don't patch together the broken Ethiopian army and the Somalis main enemy becomes their logistical challenges. Can the Somalis win the war before the US gets its act together and repairs relations with Ethiopia enough to get military aid flowing to the Derg?

That I'm honestly unsure about; indeed, can Somalia patch up its logistical situation during this time?

Also, even if the Somalis capture all of Ogaden, why exactly would Ethiopia give up? Indeed, wouldn't Ethiopia--at worst--agree to a ceasefire without recognizing Somali sovereignty over Ogaden and hope to eventually fight a rematch with Somalia?

3) What happens if the Somalis do somehow win? Does the victory allow the Somalis to avoid collapse?

Possibly--at least in the same time-frame as our TL. However, a serious problem for the Somalis appears to be their inability to create a viable nation-state (as opposed to a nation with a bunch of tribes). Indeed, if a viable Somali nation-state won't be created in this TL, I expect toeventually see at least a three-way breakup of Somalia--specifically with Somaliland, southern Somalia, and Ogaden all eventually going their separate ways (with the latter rejoining Ethiopia--by force, if necessary).

Does this mean that the Somalis will make another try at annexing the Kenyan Somali region.

I doubt it; after all, the Barre regime wouldn't want to risk losing either Ogaden or its international relations.

I don't expect anyone would recognize the Somali annexation of Ogaden.

Neither do I; indeed, not even Ethiopia.

It may, however, encourage other ambitious 3rd world despots to pursue territorial acquisition by force of arms...

fasquardon

Whom exactly do you have in mind here?
 
I doubt that Carter will send over enough aid to the Derg in this TL.

Any particular reason? I mean, this is the guy who committed the US to aiding the Afghan Mujahideen.

That I'm honestly unsure about; indeed, can Somalia patch up its logistical situation during this time?

I'm not sure. I'm also not sure if the Somali plan was to push out until they held defensible positions or if they intended to keep pressing forward until they had captured Ethiopian administrative and industrial centres.

Which came first--the secret offers of aid or the closure of this military mission center?

The secret offers of aid came first, then the Ethiopians closed the US mission.

Possibly--at least in the same time-frame as our TL. However, a serious problem for the Somalis appears to be their inability to create a viable nation-state (as opposed to a nation with a bunch of tribes). Indeed, if a viable Somali nation-state won't be created in this TL, I expect toeventually see at least a three-way breakup of Somalia--specifically with Somaliland, southern Somalia, and Ogaden all eventually going their separate ways (with the latter rejoining Ethiopia--by force, if necessary).
I doubt it; after all, the Barre regime wouldn't want to risk losing either Ogaden or its international relations.

I'm not sure. One of the reasons for Barre to push for "Greater Somalia" was to re-enforce the bonds between the different regions of Somalia. If they win in Ogaden, it may mean the national identity gets a top-up of credibility that makes fracturing less likely and makes Kenyan Somalia an attractive target if the prestige of the regime dips again.

Whom exactly do you have in mind here?

No-one particularly. Just imagining a situation where the late 70s/early 80s fashion for poor dictatorships launching wars of conquest could continue into the 90s.

fasquardon
 
Neither do I; indeed, not even Ethiopia.
Its not like it would matter as Ethiopia would fall apart following a defeat and the Role between Ethiopia and Somalia would Reversed with latter aiding separatist and rebel movements and ensuring a stable government would not form

Somalia would secured enough with a destabilized Ethiopia , They could make a go at Kenyan Somali region idk if they would be able to win
 
Its not like it would matter as Ethiopia would fall apart following a defeat and the Role between Ethiopia and Somalia would Reversed with latter aiding separatist and rebel movements and ensuring a stable government would not form

Somalia would secured enough with a destabilized Ethiopia , They could make a go at Kenyan Somali region idk if they would be able to win

I imagine Eritrea would be independent much earlier in this timeline for sure.

I wonder how likely a monarchist restoration would be?

fasquardon
 
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