Of Rajahs and Hornbills: A timeline of Brooke Sarawak

[Al-numbers]

Icedaemon’s comment first, then the rest.

Interesting. I wonder how much pull the Ottomans will have with islamic peoples in other people's empires. Will 'Pakistani' muslims be more willing to fight in a colonial war for Britain if they are fighting alongside the Grand Turk?

Ottoman influence in the Islamic world is a rather undefined and nebulous topic for the era, especially ITTL. But suffice to say, many Muslims in the middle east have a more nuanced and ambivalent view of the Porte whereas opinions are more simpler and abstract in India and Southeast Asia. To put it simply, the further you are from Kostantiniyye, the more removed are you from the nuances of Ottoman rule, and the more abstract are your thoughts on them. Diplomatically, they hold a lot of clout with the governments of Aceh and Riau-Lingga, and have a substantial presence in Johor. Socio-culturally though, the Ottoman sultan/caliph is seen in very high regard amongst many people, and many religious-minded reformers don the fez to show their affinity with the Grand Turk.

This is going to cause some problems down the line though, especially as nationalist movements began to coalesce. The Muslims of British India are definitely volunteer to join in the fighting in Europe and Asia, but they would rather be transferred or shipped to the Balkan and Caucasian fronts rather than dying in Europe. And that’s not counting the ideas they might pick up abroad bring back home.


As for the naval posts, the prioritisation and qualitative difference of the French navy vis-à-vis the British are really enlightening. Given everything we’ve discussed, I can see the Admiralty confining themselves to guard the home islands and guarding the transatlantic route to Canada and West Africa once they realized how overstretched they are. Besides engaging in the Med and Red Sea basins, India, South and East Africa, and the East Indies could be left on their own for a while until the empire’s latent industrial capacity picks up steam.

As for the Italian Navy, they are several grades better than OTL due to basic necessity in managing their colonial empire, stretching now from Africa to Papua. Still, local priorities and the presence of close belligerents could hinder them to defending the main peninsula and blockade the Adriatic sea, venturing out only in cooperation with the French. The Regia Marina itself could also split in twain if Britain and the Ottomans close the Suez canal, which would separate the mainland high command from their Bornean and Papuan-based vessels.

That said, Britain will probably want to promise Japan Guangzhouwan and possibly bits of French Indochina in exchange for naval aid.

Guangzhouwan maybe, but Japan is more interested in beating back Russia, and grabbing Korea + the Pescadores than taking hold of anything further south. Promise them Sakhalin and some influence in Manchuria… then they’ll maybe consider.

It occurs to me that the Ottomans, Austria-Hungary and Britain are all imperial powers of some stripe. The same holds true of the friendly neutrals they would really want to pull to their side. Might they be called as the 'League of N Emperors' or somesuch?

I’ve been thinking about a term like that, but the trouble is that both the British monarch and the Ottoman sultan aren’t exactly ‘emperors’ in the exact vein. ‘Triple Alliance’ also fails since all the pro-British empires were connected through informal and somewhat indirect matters. If I can’t think of anything else soon, I’ll settle for the ‘Triple League’, for simplicity’s sake.

(There’s also the Malê Rising option of using acronyms, but I don’t think ‘BOAH’ would ever catch on anywhere).

My, this is going to be messy. One saving grace for Austria-Hungary is that if reforms which took place by 1914 OTL have not occurred, neither has Russia undergone a shock like the Russo-Japanese war, which means _they_ haven't spent much of the last decade attempting to carry out reforms of their own.

Needless to say, the war is going to be a giant shock to many armies on both sides.

In that regard, do the French have occupied Madagascar? I'm not sure having read it or not.

The Franco-Hova wars occurred relatively similarly IOTL, resulting in Madagascar becoming a colony and the Merina monarchy being overthrown by 1900. The French Resident-General now rules the roost, and he’s using the war to prey on any British ships plying the waves between South Africa and India.

That's gonna be a bitch to fix. Apo Kayan is at the south of the border. [///] [The Bruneian Resident] was lied to, isn't it? Because there's no record of such activities there OTL.

Correct! The Limbang highlands are the native lands of several tribes such as the Lun Bawang, but not the Kayan. The Resident heard there was some trouble along the interior Sarawakian Divisions and along the border near the Rajang headwaters, and assumed that was the case throughout all the Sarawak-Dutch border. And as you can see, he’s not a particularly understanding fellow for the moment.

The Apo Kayan do live south of the border, but Dutch exploration and a few inter-tribal wars have led a few families to migrate inward of Sarawak, and the subgroup – alongside some others – are looking for any weakness in both nations to stir up some trouble.

If Charles lucked out in his diplomacy, he'll gain these people as his commanders:

Oh wow, looks like I have to do some more reading! Penghulu Dalam Munan has an altered history in this TL, being a Brooke ally and getting more interested in trade. For the others, I think I’ll need to do some research before I can answer on them.

Bad move. The Dutch had nothing to gain and everything to lose by doing that.

Yeah but just imagine if they DID join Italy and they end up losing. Sarawak might get the floodlands back....or more.

Like most, if not all of Borneo annexed into Sarawak

The Dutch could end up losing the entire East Indies.

Yeah but not to Sarawak.

They would be imploded due to the great shame if it does.

I’m still surprised that some of you remembered how Sarawak took the Sentarum floodlands waaaay back. I still have a candle for that place, and the coming war will definitely have an effect on at least the border situation there. As for the Dutch, they are rebuffing all attempts to join either side in the war, knowing that jumping in could land them in very hot water. In Borneo’s case, the local Residents are silently requesting for troop placements along the border with Italian Sabah, just in case the chaos up there wouldn’t lead to a cross-border native uprising. Sarawak is going to be a tad busy fighting Italian Sabah and Brunei to care for annexing Borneo, but the demand in resources might lead a few commercial eyes to gaze on beyond the forested horizon.

My lord, how was that [Ubangi-Shari to Obock ]supposed to work? This makes the Fashoda Incident look like a brilliant French gambit.

Fait accompli, plus banking off the regional chaos after Al-Zayn passed. In any case, the French didn’t expect their entry to be received so badly.

 

[Tyler96]

I’ve been thinking about a term like that, but the trouble is that both the British monarch and the Ottoman sultan aren’t exactly ‘emperors’ in the exact vein.

Isn't the British monarch technically the emperor of India? At least, they were IOTL.

 

[Icedaemon]

That was the reasoning behind my suggestion.

 

[lukedalton]

Regarding Regia Marina and the Mediterrean theatre, well better or not, they will be pretty scared by the Royal Navy...and this mean that the plan to deal with them will be: hit first and hit hard; neutralizing Malta will be priority number one and two.
Sure collaboration with the Marina Nationale will be asked and greatly appreciated for this operation, but time is the name of the game and Italy can't allow that a sizeble fleet will form and have a base so near home

 

[Al-numbers]

​

Issac McNamara, The Great War: An Overview, (Cambridge University Press; 1999)

…The French, Russian, Italian, and Balkan papers all trumpeted how the pulp press-named ‘Great European War’ would be winnable in a single year. It might’ve easily been that way.

Pound-for-pound, their combined resources and production capabilities outclassed their Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman counterparts. Their naval strengths were also formidable, with the French and Italian navies adopting the Jeune École strategy of commerce raids and hit-and-run tactics using relatively speedy gunships. This was a nasty surprise for Britain as it quickly found itself overstretched in defending their vast, disparate, and global empire against ambush hunts and surprise attacks. Initially, the Admiralty tried to operate offensively in the Mediterranean and Atlantic basins, but the sinking of a British cruiser near the Thames estuary by a French submarine in August 12, coupled with the surprise shelling of Scarborough and Whitby ten days later, forced the high command to rethink tactics.

In the end, the high and mighty fleet of Britannia were relegated to a continuous patrol of the British Isles against French and Russian intrusion, with only its transatlantic and West African sea routes being operable in convoy. Matters were made worse by the cutting of undersea telegraph cables by multiple parties and the surveillance of surviving ones for information. Though this greatly aided British intelligence and would prove invaluable in the following years, it also made them wary of transmitting directives for fear of enemy surveillance across the Channel. For the moment, across the world, the various fleets of the British Empire were on their own.

This was unwelcome news for the fellow members of the press-assigned ‘Triple Emperors League’ *. In the Mediterranean basin, the French and Italian forces were unquestioned in power, taking Malta in a fortnight and subjecting Gibraltar to a biting siege, leaving the Suez Canal and the squadron therein the last stronghold of British power in the region…

…Austria-Hungary was the most reluctant in going to war. With a small navy and an armed force that had one foot in the 19th century, it was clear that the conflict could very well decide the very existence of the empire itself. Italy in particular saw the war as a chance to complete the Risorgimento, with South Tyrol being immediately invaded while a barrage of gunboats surrounded the Istrian peninsula. In the northeast, an incredible Russian force of 990,000 men advanced through the Pale of Settlement while three divisions of Serbian troops embarked to take the Vojvodina. The dual nature of the empire and the multiple ethnicities of its armed forces made coordination a nightmare, and it is a testament to the mountain infantries and the Hungarian Honvéd that both the Serbian and Tyrolean fronts quickly bogged down by mid-September. However, such progress was soon overshadowed by Russian forces approaching the city of Lemberg…

Amongst the Triple Emperors League, it was the Ottomans whom faced the greatest threats from the global war. Larger than Austria-Hungary and equally as diverse, it too suffered from a half-reformed army and questionable logistics, with the added trouble of defending a larger and more disparate empire from hostile foes. In some cases, they were more coveted by Italy and her Balkan allies with the Regia Marina quickly blockading the Adriatic and sending corps after corps of troops to land in both Dalmatia and Ottoman Albania. The Porte also faced both Greek and Serbian troops overrunning their borders (though Belgrade focused more on carving Vojvodina from Hungary) and a massive Bulgarian uprising around Sofia along with the surrounding countryside. In North Africa, a Franco-Italian invasion force was sweeping up their coastal vilayets, which was matched by a Russian mobilization through the Caucasus and Georgia. During the summer of 05’, everyone thought the end was just a matter of time.

A French newspaper clipping of the Ottoman army during the eve of the war.​

And then sultan Abdul Hamid II declared jihad.

For all the issues the empire’s many many minorities faced under the Turkish thumb, they weren’t eager to be placed under someone else’s. Guerrilla warfare exploded in the Balkans, Caucasus and even in North Africa, where vengeful Sufi brotherhoods wreaked havoc on any force that dared to cross the Sahara or march through the high mountains, fighting on even after the fall of Tunisia and Tripolitania during the autumn. The same was true for Ottoman Bosnia and Albania, where a combination of hill chiefs, religious brotherhoods, partisans, and volunteer forces (some of whom were resettled Caucasians and Jews expelled from Russia [1.] ) halted two separate Greco-Italian armies in the Dinaric Alps. Similarly, the Caucasus became a meatgrinder for the Russians as wildcat attacks from hill peoples became a constant threat, even as the main force advanced on Trabzon. The high seas also became a formidable battleground as Ottoman, Egyptian, and British fleets patrolled the Levantive coast, fending off Greek and Italian intrusions around Cyprus and ensuring that the Suez Canal remained closed to enemy vessels.

However, such a defence came at an untold cost to the minorities of the empire. Along with the halt of multiple forces came an explosion of ethnic and communal violence across the land, particularly in the Greek and Bulgarian-majority regions of Rumelia. But no violence reached the heights, or rather, lows, of the bloodbath that consumed the island of Crete…

Meanwhile, the Austro-Hungarian Empire also proved to be tougher than expected. While the Common Army failed to hold Lemberg and most of Galicia, the remaining forces held a defensive line along the Carpathian mountains, stalemating the Russian advance. Support from the local population was also unforthcoming, with only the Serbians showing marked signs of companionship to their attackers. Though the Habsburgs were less than stellar rulers, their conduct and appeal to the empire’s citizens was such that there was genuine – if sometimes reserved – support for the monarchy in several regions. Indeed, many Italian and Russian nationalists were surprised to find their supposed Tyrolean, Polish, and Carniolan brethren, “fighting to their deaths instead of embracing the bosom of their motherlands”, as the famous newspaper columnist Gabriele D’Annunzio remarked.

And more than anything, the polity had the public support of Germany. Though the German Empire remained unofficially neutral due to the personal crisis within the royal family, its people did not rest upon seeing their fellow co-ethnics battling across the border. Pro-Austrian clubs mushroomed across the land, with donation drives and rallies taking place in every major city. Private sales of supplies and armaments poured in through the railyards, with many customs officials turning a blind eye to any cargo that was marked Für Notwendigkeiten – For Necessities. And with the goods came volunteers in the thousands, pouring in from Baden to Königsberg, willing to fight in a foreign land for a war that was spiralling out of control.

For the German government, it was clear just what should be done to fully aid their southern neighbour, but there were also several voices espousing how entering the war would pit the Reich against two large and powerful neighbours, pincering Germany to possible destruction. And regardless, such a war required the authorization of Wilhelm II, who was preoccupied with more personal matters…

And even for Britannia, their forced defensive position vis-à-vis their enemies lent with it a few advantages. The fact that all the major land fronts were far away from London lent the army some breathing room to assess their situation, and the resulting meatgrinders of the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman fronts drove home the need for military reform. The conscription bill that was pushed in October required British recruits to be trained for a month before being sent for active duty, and though the law failed to pass Parliament, the training clause was incorporated into the armed forces later on. Soon, a reserve army of trained volunteer corps grew in the Home Islands, ready to be deployed as soon as the naval situation improved.

Above all, the war stirred up the hornet’s nest that was the British Empire. More than anything, it was the larger empire that turned the Great ‘European’ War into the Great ‘Global’ War. Though slow to rouse, the industrial capacity of Canada, Australia, India, and the colonies was more than enough to tip the scale…

********************

Nazer Amanetov, Journal for European Studies: The Neutrals of the Great War, (Sekvoyya: 2001)

… Of all the nations of Europe, the Low Countries had the most to lose and little to gain from joining the fight, and saw entry into the Great War as nothing more than a destructive venture. The Netherlands in particular were extremely anxious over the outbreak of world war, as the nation had to watch its place not only in Europe, but in Southeast Asia as well. Siding even loosely with the British could invite conflict with France and hamper its shipping lines, but planning an accord with Paris might incur the wrath of London and its formidable Royal Navy. The war had even brought an unexpected windfall for the nation as raw materials from the East Indies are in sudden demand among the industrialised empires, and the corporations that supplied them looked darkly at any attempts to shear off potential profits.

In the end, the government in Amsterdam and its colonial arm in Batavia opted for a somewhat unusual route, one that was based on prior experiences with demanding Powers: open neutrality. The Netherlands would open its ports to all belligerent Powers, though such ships could only dock, refuel, and resupply for around 24 hours before leaving. Any attempts to extend this would be met with force, if necessary. The nation would also sell raw materials to all parties without regard for affiliation, so long as such transactions are conducted openly and within sight of overseers.

Both Britain and France were unhappy with this. For one, both sides could now procure raw materials for the war effort. However, the unexpected transparency of raw commerce would reveal which side was deficient on what materials; in effect, partially showing supply weaknesses. It also created the untouchability of Dutch shipping, as such vessels might contain cargoes of value to the warring alliances; any tampering with them might veer Amsterdam to either camp, which is neither in the interests of London or Paris. Still, from this moment onward, the British government would send continuous prods to the Netherlands to shut off its ports and join their side…

Similarly, the nations of Scandinavia saw the Great War as a conflict that they saw little to gain. Though they also conceded to open ports and transparent transactions of raw goods, both Denmark and Sweden-Norway stayed out and proclaimed neutrality. But with that, there were more than a few glances at the Grand Duchy of Finland, which was stewing over bring dragged into a conflict that they had no control over…

Spain was another nation caught in a bind. The descent of the world into conflict worried Madrid, not least because it shared a long border with France and possessed rich, yet far-flung colonies and dominions open to attack. But like the Dutch, the war also provided opportunity to many industrialists and transporters, whom sought to gain profit from marking goods and materials to opposite sides. Late in October, Spain became another European nation that embraced open neutrality, promising a warring continent that it wouldn’t join and ensuring open transparency in the commerce of raw resources.

To the alliances, Spain had a quantifiably larger military strength than the Netherlands, while its industry and overseas domains – not least of which included the regions of Congo, Cuba and the Philippines – make it a potentially powerful ally. Diplomats from Britain, France, Italy, and Russia all congregated in Madrid, hoping to sway the government to their sides or at least plead for further concessions in various materials. Once, the French ambassador even proposed to give away their portion of the Congo for guarantees of wild rubber and mineral resources for the Franco-Russian alliance. But both the politicians and the monarchy refused…

But of all the neutral nations, none was more divided over the Great War than the kingdom of Romania. Unlike Spain or the Netherlands, Romania was a comparatively pastoral nation that lay right in the crosshairs of the Russian north, the Ottoman south, and the Austro-Hungarian west. Yet the nation also possessed a bountiful industry of oil extraction and refining, as well as a simmering undercurrent of irredentism that brewed amongst its nationalists. Both Russia and Austria-Hungary held large swathes of Romanian-majority lands, and the autumn of 1805 saw the capital flushed to the full with war advocates debating which side should be favoured. Street brawls became a weekly occurrence, and so did criticism of the government and monarchy…

Perhaps the oddest of the neutral nations was the German Empire, as it neither proclaimed itself neutral nor officially chose sides – though pro-Austrian sentiment did rise among the public. While some amount of government indecision played a part behind this, the main reason lay with the imperial family and the personal crisis that unfolded behind closed doors…

********************​

Charlottenhof Palace, Potsdam, German Empire. 31 August 1905​

For Augusta Victoria, the world was ending.

She could feel it, in the dimness of the sunlight, in the dour of the air. She could hear it, from the hushed voices all around, from the muffled footsteps on the carpeted floor. She could see it on the visage on her husband, on her children, on all their closest and dearest. All anxious, all scared.

Above all, she could see it right before her. The closed door.

Beyond the wooden slab lay her eldest son and heir, dying. Beyond the wood and metal lay a room filled with doctors and physicians, trying their hardest to keep her young Wilhelm alive. His contraction of consumption was a complete shock to the family, and the measures employed to ensure general safety tore at the Household as much as the disease did: Only one person at his side for a day, and only for a short while, and always under supervision; Handkerchiefs and gloves an absolute must when visiting, to prevent other contractions beyond his person; Clothes and accoutrements to be replaced after every visitation, to be cleaned, washed, and polished to within an inch of their lives. Augusta couldn’t recall how many times she had to bathe just for desiring a simple touch. [2.]

This shouldn’t be like this. None of us should stay like this.

The whispers picked up, hissing like snakes before a thunderstorm. Someone had arrived to the waiting group, and though Augusta couldn’t see who, it seemed the courier was transferring his message to the waiting throng in the corridor. Heads turned, eyes were raised. The faces of a few turned incredulous, even furious.

Augusta turned to her daughters, wanting to ask the matter. But the whispers became clearer, and she heard parts of it. At once, she was infuriated. What is this? What is this madness!? What are these lies!?

She turned to her husband to speak the matter, but her voice died upon seeing his expression. Wilhelm's face spoke volumes. It was as if a mountain was crumbling.

The whispers intensified. The door opened.

Augusta turned to the outcoming physician, but her ears still rang with the hisses of serpents. The dour air now feels as if it could suffocate her.

“Moltke. Sodomy.”

____________________

Notes:

:: First off, I know we are all eager to return to Sarawak and discover how the Brookes shall fare during the Great War, but doing that requires at least a partial understanding of the events happening in Europe, which – for better or worse – shall indirectly influence the outcome of Southeast Asia (and the world). So, a breeze-through of the first year of the Great War among all the empires who think smashing armies to one another constitutes glory is a must. I might continue this with an aside regarding the situation of Crete and the Hohenzollern crisis, but after that, it’s straight to Borneo and the White Rajahs.

1. See post #1116 for more info on the Jewish and Muslim expulsions from Imperial Russia.

2. The convalescence of Crown Prince Wilhelm at Charlottenhof and the rules for his visitation is based on some research into contemporary remedies for tuberculosis – which included fresh air, exercise, and cleanliness – coupled with some guesswork into how would a royal family handle such a case among their number. I may have made the rules too excessive, but this is the same era where tuberculosis patients are shunned by society and forced to shantytowns and colonies IOTL, so they might be par for the course.

* Alright, ya'll convinced me. The press would've tried to find some commonalities between the Windsors, Habsburgs, and Osmanlis anyways, and all of them being emperors would've fit the bill.

 

[galileo-034]

The jihad has historically been of dubious military value IOTL during the Great War, undermined with the various divides, arab-turkish, sunni-shia, etc. In north Africa, this might find a good echo among anti colonial resistants, but in the long run, it's going to have limited effect on the coastal areas, where it matters.
In the time, the recipe in matters of counter-insurgency applied IOTL by the British in South Africa against the Boers and later by the Italians in Libya (deportations of population), was spreaded and still accepted as public opinion wasn't yet set against such tactics as it would be by the time of ww2.
Strategically, the advance towards the Suez Canal only requires the control of coastal areas to have ports from where the advancing army can resupply (since the Franco-Italians have control of the sea around them it seems); else, they would probably have to build a railroad along the coast if the British become too insistent; that would be an impressive feat, but not yet impossible. IOTL, the Russians laid a railway from Kars to Erzurum and beyond to support their advance into Anatolia, and the French had long plans for transsaharan railway, and already bases to rely on in Algeria.

Plus, the French have had long experience in counter-insurgency due to their conquest and control of Algeria and their subjugation of Sahara tribes, with a comprehensive/extensive use of local auxiliaries and companies of "méharistes" (dromedary riders).

A sidenote, I could imagine the French instigating the Arab revolt ITTL. If not with the Hashemites, they could find allies in the Saudi.
Have Asir and North Yemen been annexed by the Turks as IOTL here? I ask because the French had once an opportunity to expand in the area with their purchase of Cheikh Said.

 

[Aghstadian]

The jihad has historically been of dubious military value IOTL during the Great War, undermined with the various divides, arab-turkish, sunni-shia, etc. In north Africa, this might find a good echo among anti colonial resistants, but in the long run, it's going to have limited effect on the coastal areas, where it matters.
In the time, the recipe in matters of counter-insurgency applied IOTL by the British in South Africa against the Boers and later by the Italians in Libya (deportations of population), was spreaded and still accepted as public opinion wasn't yet set against such tactics as it would be by the time of ww2.
Strategically, the advance towards the Suez Canal only requires the control of coastal areas to have ports from where the advancing army can resupply (since the Franco-Italians have control of the sea around them it seems); else, they would probably have to build a railroad along the coast if the British become too insistent; that would be an impressive feat, but not yet impossible. IOTL, the Russians laid a railway from Kars to Erzurum and beyond to support their advance into Anatolia, and the French had long plans for transsaharan railway, and already bases to rely on in Algeria.

Plus, the French have had long experience in counter-insurgency due to their conquest and control of Algeria and their subjugation of Sahara tribes, with a comprehensive/extensive use of local auxiliaries and companies of "méharistes" (dromedary riders).

A sidenote, I could imagine the French instigating the Arab revolt ITTL. If not with the Hashemites, they could find allies in the Saudi.
Have Asir and North Yemen been annexed by the Turks as IOTL here? I ask because the French had once an opportunity to expand in the area with their purchase of Cheikh Said.

To be fair the sad perfomance of otl is the ottoman pretty much uninspiring with defeat here and there combine with the fact the war seen as german opportunism rather than "self defense of ummah" or anything sound like that. I'm not saying every muslim in the world just answer the call and give the "infidel invader" hell. More likely better in some aspect like coopted more by various group for whatever reason and some more volunteer here and there or at very least more supportive attitude to it.

Now except in important mountain pass the coastal area irregular activities pretty much can be ignored at very least for a time if nothing else is change. But I predict egypt will be relatively tough to crack compared to libyan coast and because it is one of main source of manpower in the area.

Not sure about arab revolt in this ttl in otl they don't do very much and this time they also isolated with supply hard to get. If there is one in this tl they probably just harrass isolated outpost and small town and village.

 

[Jürgen]

Just a moment Denmark-Norway?!? Have I failed to read a update?

 

[Al-numbers]

Just a moment Denmark-Norway?!? Have I failed to read a update?

Shoot, that was supposed to be Sweden-Norway! My mistake. *facepalms*

 

[Icedaemon]

The Kaiser was certainly far more powerful than British monarchs since the Regency, but I have a hard time believing the German Empire would just stop functioning with the Kaiser incapacitated.

 

[Herr Frage]

The Kaiser was certainly far more powerful than British monarchs since the Regency, but I have a hard time believing the German Empire would just stop functioning with the Kaiser incapacitated.

My guess is, that it hasn't. That the truth is that the elected government leadership is stumped on how to proceed and is buying time by saying they can't make meaningful policy without the kaiser's input. Basically they're passing the buck.

 

[kaizerfox]

I'm really excited to see how this war pans out! I can't decide which side I support because both sides have nations I want to see rise and others I want to see get knocked down a peg. I want to see Sarawak and Austria-Hungary do well but I want to see Britain and the Ottomans lose. On the other hand I want to see Italy, Serbia and Greece win but I also want to see France and Russia get wrecked. I guess whichever side Germany joins will be the deciding factor for me. Also is the US going to (eventually) get involved or are they gonna sit this one out while laughing at the Europeans killing each other?

 

[The Merovingian]

My guess is, that it hasn't. That the truth is that the elected government leadership is stumped on how to proceed and is buying time by saying they can't make meaningful policy without the kaiser's input. Basically they're passing the buck.

We would LOOOOOVE to get involved with a multi continent-spanning war that may very well bring us to the brink of social and economic success......but herr Kaiser....his wife...we are in mourning.

 

[Al-numbers]

The Kaiser was certainly far more powerful than British monarchs since the Regency, but I have a hard time believing the German Empire would just stop functioning with the Kaiser incapacitated.

My guess is, that it hasn't. That the truth is that the elected government leadership is stumped on how to proceed and is buying time by saying they can't make meaningful policy without the kaiser's input. Basically they're passing the buck.

We would LOOOOOVE to get involved with a multi continent-spanning war that may very well bring us to the brink of social and economic success......but herr Kaiser....his wife...we are in mourning.

The situation in Germany is... complicated. While yes, the royal family is distraught over their crown prince falling ill, I mentioned several times beforehand that there is military scandal brewing below the surface. The news in Charlottenhof Palace is the climax of that event, and it's going to give both the monarchy, the government, and the military facing some hard and uncomfortable questions. Meanwhile, the Reichstag is divided between just supporting Austria-Hungary in material/logistical support or join the war outright, and the meatgrinders of the the Great War, especially in Crete, are making some people having second thoughts. And remember the Habsburgs and their private disdain for the Kaiser ITTL? That... may.... have not stayed secret at the most inopportune time.

From July to September, Germany will have some deep issues to think about.

 

[Al-numbers]

First off, I apologize for answering these comments so late after they’re posted. My knowledge of North Africa is embarrassingly next to non-existent, so bear with me.

he jihad has historically been of dubious military value IOTL during the Great War, undermined with the various divides, arab-turkish, sunni-shia, etc. In north Africa, this might find a good echo among anti colonial resistants, but in the long run, it's going to have limited effect on the coastal areas, where it matters.

To be fair the sad perfomance of otl is the ottoman pretty much uninspiring with defeat here and there combine with the fact the war seen as german opportunism rather than "self defense of ummah" or anything sound like that. I'm not saying every muslim in the world just answer the call and give the "infidel invader" hell. More likely better in some aspect like coopted more by various group for whatever reason and some more volunteer here and there or at very least more supportive attitude to it.

In general, the Ottoman declaration of jihad is going to be seen and viewed differently by different people. Within the empire, the various ethnic and sectarian divides are going to hinder a mass movement of war, and you are right in that ordinary men fighting with religious zeal don’t have the best in battlefield survival. But Aghstadian has a point in that, in some places, the call to jihad would be co-opted by various groups to advance their agendas, all while ostensibly fighting in the name of the sultan. Unknowingly, the Porte is setting up a future conflict while fighting the present one.

Outside the empire, reactions are going to be even more mixed. Some groups in Asia and Africa would see the Ottoman cause as a righteous one, and maybe see it as an excuse to launch anti-colonial revolts or just further their agendas. The 1915 Singapore Mutiny is one example, though that was wrapped-up in many other issues and tangential influences. Other peoples and nations, not so much.

In the places that matter, you won’t see many Sarawakians or Malays taking ship to fight the Italians or the French for jihad, though public support for the Turk is on the rise. The Acehnese however, they take the viewpoint of holy war very deeply to heart, and they will give everyone close to them the biggest shock of their lives.

In the time, the recipe in matters of counter-insurgency applied IOTL by the British in South Africa against the Boers and later by the Italians in Libya (deportations of population), was spreaded and still accepted as public opinion wasn't yet set against such tactics as it would be by the time of ww2.

Oh shoot, I need to think about South Africa. But in summation, the Second Boer War hasn’t happened ITTL, though the underlying tensions are still there between the Boers and the British, with a chance of rapid escalation. Italy meanwhile only snagged a couple of Tunisian ports before 1905 due to the Horrible Compromise, and so the tactics of native deportation remain a purview of the French in North Africa.

With that said, the idea of mass internment would have floated around for decades because of the French example, so the practice would be used to the full to contain Ottoman North Africa. Well, only up till the Sahara.

Strategically, the advance towards the Suez Canal only requires the control of coastal areas to have ports from where the advancing army can resupply (since the Franco-Italians have control of the sea around them it seems); else, they would probably have to build a railroad along the coast if the British become too insistent; that would be an impressive feat, but not yet impossible. IOTL, the Russians laid a railway from Kars to Erzurum and beyond to support their advance into Anatolia, and the French had long plans for transsaharan railway, and already bases to rely on in Algeria.

Now except in important mountain pass the coastal area irregular activities pretty much can be ignored at very least for a time if nothing else is change. But I predict egypt will be relatively tough to crack compared to libyan coast and because it is one of main source of manpower in the area.

In a way, both of you are correct. The French and Italians need only the coast to advance eastwards to the Suez Canal, and so long as the mountain and desert insurgencies are prevented from reaching down, they have a secure rail line. But Egypt is no small pickle, and the khedivate wouldn’t take the prospect of an Egyptian invasion lightly. In Cairo, the locals are clamoring for an entry into the war while the government is meeting with British and Ottoman envoys over protecting the important canal. Though the Med is a Franco-Italian lake, the Levantine and Egyptian coasts are still bastions for the British and Ottoman navies.

As for the Russian railhead into Anatolia, that’s something new I’ve now learned! So the war into Anatolia might be more one-sided than I thought it would be.

Plus, the French have had long experience in counter-insurgency due to their conquest and control of Algeria and their subjugation of Sahara tribes, with a comprehensive/extensive use of local auxiliaries and companies of "méharistes" (dromedary riders).

Oooh, how far is their range of operations? From Wikipedia (I know, I know) the Méhariste seemed to be a very fluid force for the Sahara, which could pit them well against Darfur, Ouaddai, the Senussi order, and <SPOILERS>. With the African theatre being an important one ITTL, I can see the force expanding greatly under orders from the French army command.

A sidenote, I could imagine the French instigating the Arab revolt ITTL. If not with the Hashemites, they could find allies in the Saudi.

Not sure about arab revolt in this ttl in otl they don't do very much and this time they also isolated with supply hard to get. If there is one in this tl they probably just harrass isolated outpost and small town and village.

Shhh! You're spoiling my plans!

Have Asir and North Yemen been annexed by the Turks as IOTL here? I ask because the French had once an opportunity to expand in the area with their purchase of Cheikh Said.

The Yemen is under Turkish control, though the boot is relatively light due to the sheer distance from the political centre. Didn’t know France had a claim down there though! Apart from the Anglo-Ottoman-Egyptian control over the Suez Canal up north, the Red Sea might become another battleground with French, British, and Italian Somaliland all duking for Yemen and the African Horn.

Currently typing a piece on Wilhelm II to better explain the hoo-haa of Germany during the summer of '05, though it might take a while due to not feeling good over the contents. After that, it's back to Sarawak!

 

[The Merovingian]

In the places that matter, you won’t see many Sarawakians or Malays taking ship to fight the Italians or the French for jihad, though public support for the Turk is on the rise.

Will there be an increase in anti-Brooke sentiment in Sarawak, I always thought they had a relatively good relationship with their Muslim subjects seeing as they were such an important power base. You think it would get to the point of an assassination attempt(s)?

 

[Al-numbers]

Amongst the Muslims of Sarawak, no. Rajah Charles and his family are too well-respected amongst the Muslim Malays for true antipathy to form, and their treatment of some Muslim-aligned ethnicities (such as resettling uprooted Sama-Bajau groups from Italian Sabah to the Natuna and Anambas islands) garnered them some good respect across the land.

Amongst Bruneians and Sabahans... no comment.

 

[galileo-034]

As for the Russian railhead into Anatolia, that’s something new I’ve now learned! So the war into Anatolia might be more one-sided than I thought it would be.

On the side of logistics, the Russians had the biggest advantage with the Transcaucasus railway connecting their South Caucasus holdings to the heartlands of Russia, with a branch to Kars.
On the Ottoman side, the railways were still underdevelopped, so IOTL by ww1, most were in western Anatolia, except for a branch that linked Constantinople to Syria; in eastern Anatolia, they had nothing, so they had to bring all supplies by road. IOTL, it took the revolutions of 1917 to stop Russians from overruning the region.

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transcaucasus_Railway

Oooh, how far is their range of operations? From Wikipedia (I know, I know) the Méhariste seemed to be a very fluid force for the Sahara, which could pit them well against Darfur, Ouaddai, the Senussi order, and <SPOILERS>. With the African theatre being an important one ITTL, I can see the force expanding greatly under orders from the French army command.

Probably. My knowledge is limited to their key role in French pacification of the Sahara. I imagine that would be an expanded version of ww2 Desert War without the tanks.
On the mysterious front you mention, I would say the Tuaregs which the French had a long history and experience of dealing with.
But else, I would enquire about the situation of Morroco. In 1844, France had gone to war with Morroco over its support of Algerian guerillas.

Still, the main issue with guerillas of the desert is going to be supply of ammunitions and weapons and these supply lines would be very vulnerable.
The guerillas in Libya have to supply from Egypt. Since the Chad region would be a battleground, it's hard to get supply lines getting further west, and since I imagine the French control most of the Niger valley north of the Sokoto Caliphate, it would be hardly possible to support guerrila in western Sahara.
In Egypt's case, I would have thought local Nationalists would more naturally side with the French, since the British and the Turks, both Egypt's nominal overlords, are on the same side opposed to France, so the French could also play the Arab Revolt card in Egypt; in practical terms, as I don't think a revolution is feasible here, I would think more of an urban insurgency with bombings and guerilla as the OTL Irish indepedence war.

 

[galileo-034]

On another note, did the French launch the construction of a Transsaharan railroad or was this project still forgotten as IOTL?
Such a railroad combined to Franco-Italian control of the shipping lanes between Marseilles and Algeria could tip the whole West African theater in France's favor by allowing French army to bring in heavy weaponry and secure a steady supply of ammunitions.

EDIT: The project was in the boxes since the 1870s.
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/fr-trans-saharan-railway.htm

 

[Al-numbers]

On another note, did the French launch the construction of a Transsaharan railroad or was this project still forgotten as IOTL?
Such a railroad combined to Franco-Italian control of the shipping lanes between Marseilles and Algeria could tip the whole West African theater in France's favor by allowing French army to bring in heavy weaponry and secure a steady supply of ammunitions.

That's one of the questions that's been popping in and out of my head ever since I read Malê Rising. ITTL, the European takeover of Africa went a little differently, but the idea of a trans-saharan railway would still garner some strong support amongst colonialists and transporters; An Algiers-Timbuktu-Dakar railway would be a boon to trade (though maybe not in the volumes French investors thought) and it would knit French West Africa into a more cohesive whole.

Oh why not? I say support for the project grew strong enough that construction began at around 1901 from Algeria after some heavy convincing amongst the skeptics. However, the project is half-complete when the war broke out, and now Paris is scrambling to get a railhead to Timbuktu to claim the entire Niger Basin for their own.