Of Rajahs and Hornbills: A timeline of Brooke Sarawak
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First welcome back and good to see that continued.
Second..a little desperate for asking protection from Italy aka the new kid on the block of the territory, but at least they can hope for a distant master that had enough power to block any other grab.
That will have some 'interesting' consequence on italian-british relations; Rome will see Sarawak as a British ally/client state, so any problem with them will be considered a problem with the British Empire.
While this mean that nobody in Italy will want to start something of too aggressive, also mean that now there is one more hotspot in the geopolitical map; plus if things between Rome and London are not very happy now, any italian move in the horn of Africa will not be see as a good thing by the British.
Second..a little desperate for asking protection from Italy aka the new kid on the block of the territory, but at least they can hope for a distant master that had enough power to block any other grab.
That will have some 'interesting' consequence on italian-british relations; Rome will see Sarawak as a British ally/client state, so any problem with them will be considered a problem with the British Empire.
While this mean that nobody in Italy will want to start something of too aggressive, also mean that now there is one more hotspot in the geopolitical map; plus if things between Rome and London are not very happy now, any italian move in the horn of Africa will not be see as a good thing by the British.
What a lovely surprise to see this back- and it looks like Brunei will survive as a tiny state ITTL as well.
Have we seen a map showing Bruneian territory at the moment ITTL? I'd like to know if it's maybe even smaller than IOTL.
EDIT: We have an 1877 map at least.
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Welcome back.
As militaries around the world start entering the age of oil, you just gave the future Regia Marina a wealthy source of fuel supply should the Italians hang on long enough for the oil to be discovered around Brunei, which surly the Royal Navy would figure out some way to squirm their way into this pie.
As militaries around the world start entering the age of oil, you just gave the future Regia Marina a wealthy source of fuel supply should the Italians hang on long enough for the oil to be discovered around Brunei, which surly the Royal Navy would figure out some way to squirm their way into this pie.
Great to see this back! It should be interesting to see how Italy handles Brunei - how are they doing with the East Indian holdings they already have ITTL? I suspect they'll soon find out that it's easier said than done to make Brunei do something that it doesn't want to do, and that Brunei will expect real protection in exchange for its allegiance.
Welcome back, and such interesting times.
My thought is that this only delay Brunei's downfall. It is implied this is looked back on as a bad move by the Sultan and the author is relating what trying circumstances the man was in.
The first problem I see coming from this new Italian colony, will be the border. A good deal of territory claimed by Brunei is under de facto Sarawakian control. I do no see the Raja happy about the Italians blocking his ambition to conquer Bandar Brunei utterly; much less accommodate by giving back lands that are his save for the legality at this point.
Likewise the Italians I expect will not want their first act as 'protectors' of their new colony being to give land to a neighboring state.
For Italy the situation will be complicated if they make issue of it. I expect many locals will prefer Sarawak over Italian rile especially in area under Brooke rule or adjacent. Brunei for all its weakness had a history with the island, a certain tradition going for it. But no the Sultan may be seen as having given that up by abasing himself to the Italians who are so new they are practically strangers to most Borneans. Sarawak even if dislike and distrusted is a known and respected entity on the island.
Sarawak's interests versus Italian holdings on the island may lead to a fallout with Britain, or at least a cooling. Sarawak is its own venture these days and borneo s their foremost concern. While Britain has its European and imperial interests weighing in.
And of course there is the question how Italy will deal with the failing Bruneian state, and the conservative court they have aligned with.
My thought is that this only delay Brunei's downfall. It is implied this is looked back on as a bad move by the Sultan and the author is relating what trying circumstances the man was in.
The first problem I see coming from this new Italian colony, will be the border. A good deal of territory claimed by Brunei is under de facto Sarawakian control. I do no see the Raja happy about the Italians blocking his ambition to conquer Bandar Brunei utterly; much less accommodate by giving back lands that are his save for the legality at this point.
Likewise the Italians I expect will not want their first act as 'protectors' of their new colony being to give land to a neighboring state.
For Italy the situation will be complicated if they make issue of it. I expect many locals will prefer Sarawak over Italian rile especially in area under Brooke rule or adjacent. Brunei for all its weakness had a history with the island, a certain tradition going for it. But no the Sultan may be seen as having given that up by abasing himself to the Italians who are so new they are practically strangers to most Borneans. Sarawak even if dislike and distrusted is a known and respected entity on the island.
Sarawak's interests versus Italian holdings on the island may lead to a fallout with Britain, or at least a cooling. Sarawak is its own venture these days and borneo s their foremost concern. While Britain has its European and imperial interests weighing in.
And of course there is the question how Italy will deal with the failing Bruneian state, and the conservative court they have aligned with.
First of all, thank you guys so much for sticking through my hiatus and for welcoming me back! I never thought that my leave would get as long as it was and I can't give enough words to say how heartened I am right now. Thank you all so much! 
Okay, so...
Oh yes, it's Italy.
Well, ITTL Brunei has been through a lot of shenanigans and are thus more distrustful of outside Powers and interests wanting to help them out. Unfortunately, this means that they have made a made list of requirements in looking for an outside protector, which among other things include:
a) Protector must NOT be a backstabber.
b) Protector must honor it's agreements.
c) Protector will defend Brunei and it's interests no matter what.
d) Protector must keep it's hand off from tinkering the royal court.
There's not a lot of countries that could fill that role, and Great Power ones even fewer. After whittling down all the candidates, the only ones that can fit (even arguably at that) are either Austria-Hungary, Germany, Italy, or the Ottomans (and since Brunei can't get the Porte to notice, that left only the first three).
Oh, there will be war, but it's not the twentieth century yet and Sarawak does not want to expend it's forces against a Secondary Power (at least not without some British backing). Still, the Brookes are not going to let Brunei slide away from it's grip that easily, and both Kuching, Singapore and Batavia are looking at snipping off as much border territories as possible before Italy can put it's boots on the ground. The first months after the acquisition of Brunei and Sabah won't be exactly peaceful.
Indeed, which would make the government in Rome be "on their toes" so to speak when it tries to make relations with the White Rajahs. Unfortunately, this also means that anything that goes wrong in Borneo would ripple back to Continental Europe, and with the Brookes and the Dutch looking meddling things up, there are a lot of ways handling Italian Sabah and Brunei (oh just just call these pieces "Italian Borneo") could go wrong.
That is, if the Regia Marina could extract them quick enough.
Let's see... at Papua they are inviting settlers to come and populate the area, though they are having a hard time finding any comers. Development is mostly in the form of trading posts and copra plantations, though several merchant and military ports have also been established around Emmanuel Bay. Relations with the local natives are very much varied, with some making trading links with the settlers (and in particular the ones who were involved with the De Rays disaster) while others are resistant at having foreginers coming to their shores.
As for Sabah... all I can say for now is that the area will be in one hell of a ride.
And ditto for Brunei. The sultanate came to choose Italy for a reason, and it expects it's end of the bargain to be upholded.
A lot can change in 20 years.
The issue of land is going to be the first crisis Italy will have over their holdings in Borneo, and it's going to hit them head-on. Acquiring territory in Papua was (comparatively) easier to its distance from the region's trade routes, and Rome has little idea how to navigate - much less influence - Bornean politics whereas the Brookes and Dutch do. Both the latter Powers know this, and will it to their fullest advantage once the news breaks out.
In terms of decent rule and merchant trade, almost everyone will choose Sarawak over Brunei. However, the true die-hards of Bruneian rule would have moved into the sultanate's capital by now, making the state (or at least it's capital) more homogeneous in terms of political alignment. The Italians might even crown Sultan Hashim "Rajah of Sandakan/Sabah" if that would increase their popularity.
As for Sarawak and British politics, while the White Rajahs may focus on Borneo and Britain it's Empire, both sides do realize that they must rely on one another to curb outside threats in Borneo and the region. Sarawak needs foreign backing (preferably British or Dutch) against Italy and it's interests, and the British/Dutch need a friendly loyal state that could aid them maintain their holdings around the South China/Sulu seas.
As for actually dealing with the sultanate's rot, that's a topic I'll keep to myself for now...
Oh, I hope I can!
I’m currently drawing out a map for the Italian East Indies, but in essence ITTL Brunei will probably be bigger due to retaining the Limbang river and basin whereas OTL Brunei didn’t (Charles Brooke took it in the 1880's, splitting Brunei into into the two halves we see today).
Okay, so...
The thing with the Italians is a nice twist.
Oh yes, it's Italy.
Well, ITTL Brunei has been through a lot of shenanigans and are thus more distrustful of outside Powers and interests wanting to help them out. Unfortunately, this means that they have made a made list of requirements in looking for an outside protector, which among other things include:
a) Protector must NOT be a backstabber.
b) Protector must honor it's agreements.
c) Protector will defend Brunei and it's interests no matter what.
d) Protector must keep it's hand off from tinkering the royal court.
There's not a lot of countries that could fill that role, and Great Power ones even fewer. After whittling down all the candidates, the only ones that can fit (even arguably at that) are either Austria-Hungary, Germany, Italy, or the Ottomans (and since Brunei can't get the Porte to notice, that left only the first three).
Italo-Sarawakian War when?
Oh, there will be war, but it's not the twentieth century yet and Sarawak does not want to expend it's forces against a Secondary Power (at least not without some British backing). Still, the Brookes are not going to let Brunei slide away from it's grip that easily, and both Kuching, Singapore and Batavia are looking at snipping off as much border territories as possible before Italy can put it's boots on the ground. The first months after the acquisition of Brunei and Sabah won't be exactly peaceful.
Indeed, which would make the government in Rome be "on their toes" so to speak when it tries to make relations with the White Rajahs. Unfortunately, this also means that anything that goes wrong in Borneo would ripple back to Continental Europe, and with the Brookes and the Dutch looking meddling things up, there are a lot of ways handling Italian Sabah and Brunei (oh just just call these pieces "Italian Borneo") could go wrong.
That is, if the Regia Marina could extract them quick enough.
Let's see... at Papua they are inviting settlers to come and populate the area, though they are having a hard time finding any comers. Development is mostly in the form of trading posts and copra plantations, though several merchant and military ports have also been established around Emmanuel Bay. Relations with the local natives are very much varied, with some making trading links with the settlers (and in particular the ones who were involved with the De Rays disaster) while others are resistant at having foreginers coming to their shores.
As for Sabah... all I can say for now is that the area will be in one hell of a ride.
And ditto for Brunei. The sultanate came to choose Italy for a reason, and it expects it's end of the bargain to be upholded.
A lot can change in 20 years.
The issue of land is going to be the first crisis Italy will have over their holdings in Borneo, and it's going to hit them head-on. Acquiring territory in Papua was (comparatively) easier to its distance from the region's trade routes, and Rome has little idea how to navigate - much less influence - Bornean politics whereas the Brookes and Dutch do. Both the latter Powers know this, and will it to their fullest advantage once the news breaks out.
In terms of decent rule and merchant trade, almost everyone will choose Sarawak over Brunei. However, the true die-hards of Bruneian rule would have moved into the sultanate's capital by now, making the state (or at least it's capital) more homogeneous in terms of political alignment. The Italians might even crown Sultan Hashim "Rajah of Sandakan/Sabah" if that would increase their popularity.
As for Sarawak and British politics, while the White Rajahs may focus on Borneo and Britain it's Empire, both sides do realize that they must rely on one another to curb outside threats in Borneo and the region. Sarawak needs foreign backing (preferably British or Dutch) against Italy and it's interests, and the British/Dutch need a friendly loyal state that could aid them maintain their holdings around the South China/Sulu seas.
As for actually dealing with the sultanate's rot, that's a topic I'll keep to myself for now...
Oh, I hope I can!
I’m currently drawing out a map for the Italian East Indies, but in essence ITTL Brunei will probably be bigger due to retaining the Limbang river and basin whereas OTL Brunei didn’t (Charles Brooke took it in the 1880's, splitting Brunei into into the two halves we see today).
So Brunei will get hit hard by another round of shrinkage but not get cleaved like OTL. The smaller size might help a bit as Brunei already lost some of it best territory, so losing more land it is already failing to govern might reduce expenses enough for them to get their fiscal feet under them.
Still the Sultan will have quite the task putting his house in order combined with establishing Brunei's role in the Italian Colonial Empire.
Brunei getting Italian Sabah would be amusing. But Italy I think would have to get some bloody noses first. By then the locals may not see getting ruled by Rome's 'patsies' as much of an improvement.
Was there ever a post on Spanish Congo being established?
Still the Sultan will have quite the task putting his house in order combined with establishing Brunei's role in the Italian Colonial Empire.
Brunei getting Italian Sabah would be amusing. But Italy I think would have to get some bloody noses first. By then the locals may not see getting ruled by Rome's 'patsies' as much of an improvement.
Was there ever a post on Spanish Congo being established?
.
Sarawak being in the British sphere, it's also a double edged sword, while it 'protect' the place against Italian (and other power meddling), more the international situation become muddled, more there will be the will of London to rein Brooke policys due to fear to cause problems that can escalate.
Italy action in Brunei initially will be more like Tunisia, after all the place it's an already enstablished state (even with a lot of problem), this mean economic privilege for the italian businessmen and population but an hands off politics on how the kingdom and his people are run, except something of really big happen.
Italian willingness to draw blood for Brunei exist, with how things ended in Tunisia, Rome will want make clear that she's not a pushover, so while they will not start any conflict with the UK (ehy nobody is so stupid) they will neither back down very easily; plus ITTL Italy at the moment is an up and coming power, still high for her colonial 'success' on South-east Asia and the recent unification.
An important fact is if there is the commercial war between Italy and France, that had done a serious number to the italian economy, kickstarting the italian diaspora and greatly limiting the italian possibility. A different relationships with France (also due to how the Tunisian crisis is ended...basically both side can blame the British) mean that this even can be butterflyed away.
Speaking of France, the Sino-French war, if all things go as scheduled (even Paris will want to flex his muscle after the failed attempt to grab Tunisia),it's almost there. A strong italian presence here can bring Rome to accept the French request to send some force in their support, probably in exchange of some commercial rights in Indochina or support in the negotiation for a Treaty port in China. Not counting that with the Dutch and British making some grumbling noise about the italian presence, having some support it's very helpfull.
It also helps that the Limbang river is the main source of Brunei's freshwater and can be navigated deep into the interior. At the very least, the Bruneians won't be as vulnerable as they were OTL (It was Charles Brooke taking it that forced Brunei to become a British protectorate).
The state's economy, on the other hand, will be a very tricky one to solve as the royal court would want a say in at least some economic matters and especially resource extraction revenues. How much and how far, will be a debating topic.
Oh yes. Plus, the locals on Sabah - particularly those on the western part - are more enamored to Sarawakian rule and the chieftains there are aligned to Kuching thanks to long-lasting trade, protection and diplomacy, giving Rajah Charles enormous leverage on some parts of the region.
As for the Spanish Congo, no there wasn't, but there will be one soon.
Point taken. The Brookes will also have to deal with one or two meddling Italians and foreigners as well, and the officials in Singapore might start paying attention to the White Rajah's responses to them.
In terms of handling Brunei, Italy will try to keep a hands-off approach, but that may change when they find new and valuable resources in the region (and Brunei has quite a few). In diplomatic matters, they knew they have to be on their toes, but then again, everyone in Borneo (and the East Indies) must do so to prevent tensions from rising, though whether they are successful is another matter.
As for the commercial angle, I'm not good at European economics but I'll hazard a guess that due to the Tunisian Crisis, economic relations between Italy and France are mended enough that the latter's industrial production won't flatten the former. Still competitive, but not like OTL's. However, given the state of southern Italy I'll wager emigration will still go along like OTL, if not a little lower.
Besides that, if the war happens and once China calls Britain to honour it's treaty and close it's ports to the French like they did OTL (and force Sarawak to do the same ITTL), the French Navy will be veeeery interested to dock at Brunei or Sabah to refuel and stock up. That would put a spinner in Kuching's admins!
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Map of the Italian East Indies: 1889
As I have said, here is the complete map of the Italian East Indies once things have settled down in the late 1880's. Also, the map contains spoilers.
If Italy cannot defeat Ethiopia,I highly doubt they can defeat Sarawak given the distance.
Well the commercial war between France and Italy done a big number on the italian economy, as France was our biggest economic patner at the time and the withdrawl of the french capital from the Italy was devastanting...but the south was greatly hit by this also due to the already present at european level, agricultural crisis (so yes, there will be still a lot of emigration but probably less then OTL).
Politically, this helped the current prime minister Crispi ( a rabid Francophobe and a great Germanophile...and a prototype Duce) to align Italy to Germany.
Military, well the general economic crisis caused by that idiotic mess (1887-92), greatly damaged Regia Marina, deprived her of the fund necessary even to pay the sailors.
Internally, well, naturally big economic crisis mean big unreast at home, this was the period anarchist and socialist see a big grown (will probably still happen but if the economy is less mess up, usually things are a little more quieter).
Besides that, if the war happens and once China calls Britain to honour it's treaty and close it's ports to the French like they did OTL (and force Sarawak to do the same ITTL), the French Navy will be veeeery interested to dock at Brunei or Sabah to refuel and stock up. That would put a spinner in Kuching's admins!
Can't comment over the internal Sabah situation, but Italy and French working closely will not make the British and the Dutch very happy.
Finally, colonially speaking, in this period Italy will try to expand her holding in Eritrea...this is also a good occasion to 'cancel' the 'dishonor' of the horrible agreeement, but also to come to clash with the locals and British interest (less in the case the Mahdi revolt or something similar happen as OTL). The French, unlike OTL, will be a little ambivalent if things between them and the italians are good enough
It should be noted Italy did not gain Sabah ITTL through trade or war, but due to one merchant company promising the Sulu court financial aid and support in the latter's struggle against the Spanish Philippines. In short, Italy snagged North Borneo without barely touching a foot in it and whatever allies they have is now being hunted by Madrid and Manila.
Also, many Sabahans have collective memories of being under brutal Sulu rule, and they won't be easily inclined to be the Italians' cannon fodder.
With all the ITTL butterflies fluttering around, it would be easy for another Italian Prime Minister to take the helm instead of Crispi and that the trade war could be resolved with a few background grumbles. As for the economics though, until the Italian banks start to consolidate themselves (also, corruption) a scandal and recession will eventually happen.
Actually, ITTL Italy's eye will be looking a bit at Ethiopia (I expect a few clashes there) but it's main gaze will still be at the East Indies due to the unexpected events and the vast resources it will discover in the 90's. The Dark Continent will have a somewhat different history ITTL.
Hmmm. Eritrea will be very important for Italy ITTL as a coaling station on the way to the East Indies, so there may be more development in the Eritrean ports and a greater effort to establish settlers there. On the other hand, as you say, Italy's focus on the East Indies will leave fewer resources to project toward Ethiopia, so the Italo-Ethiopian conflict might be limited to border clashes (or maybe biting off a chunk of territory in Tigre) rather than any attempt at outright conquest. The effect on Ethiopia could be interesting: it would be able to modernize on its own terms, possibly in alliance with Russia, but would also face less pressure to modernize, which could blow up in its face during the 20th century.