I think a good question is what Italy plans to do with the colony. Is it just a place where the Italian flag can be planted as a show of pride, or do the Italians plan to make it a springboard for expansion in Asia?
Of Rajahs and Hornbills: A timeline of Brooke Sarawak
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Hmm, Italy already has a colonial Presence in the East Indies in the isles near New Guinea, and I believe some outposts on the big island itself. I expect they hope for Sabah to better anchor their presence in the region and a stop off point for their ventures further East.
But as has been pointed out Italy ma find Sabah a bad investment. Especially if Sarawak and the DEI offer even mild support(ex. blind eye at borders) to troublemakers. And if Batavia and Kuching invaded Italian Sabah I doubt the Italians could stop them from dividing the place between the two. it will be more the potential consequences of such an action I think that would deter them than fear of Italy's reach.
Or they may buy Italy's bluff; or Italy puts a very significant military investment into the colony.
For now I expect Kuching and Batavia to see what happens in Sabah and tend to other matters.
For Kuching the matter of integrating the former de facto territory into Sarawak proper. And perhaps with Italy shaking things up Sarawak may try and kick up its game on the International stage.
As for Batavia, they will have their hands full trying to secure their influence more formally and try to yak every fruit they were hoping would fall into the basket.
The Italian Navy ITTL is a very different beast from the mid-ranged fleet that existed IOTL. The Italy that exists ITTL has a more vested interest in the East due to factors that didn't take place IOTL. A more strongman-like leader, a more successful Third War of Independence, and greater attention to colonial expansion would have all resulted in at least an upgrade of the Regia Marina. There is also the fact that ITTL Italy has Western New Guinea as a prestige colony, and thus the state would have put greater emphasis on the navy in order to link up and defend the place.
However, you do have a point in there not being any appropriate port facilities in the region suitable for any sort of Navy. Aside from New Guinea, the only nearby port suitable to hold a navy would be Labuan and Vlaardingen, and I doubt the British and the Dutch would be that welcoming to an Italian fleet after all that has happened. But, there is a chance that the Italian fleet (or some of their ships, at least) were in the South China Sea region when word got out, just like the German navy did during the start of the Sulu Affair. I'll flip a coin and say the Kingdom of Italy does have a stronger Navy, but didn't have any appropriate port facilities near Sulu and got lucky that several of it's gunboats were nearby when the Compagnia Vanella stated it's claim.
As for Sarawak, the Brooke family are extremely unhappy with the prospect of an Italian Sabah. However, their hands are somewhat tied as almost all of their military forces are somewhat focused on consolidating the new territories it gained from Brunei. Besides that, Charles Brooke knew that the kingdom's continued independence is due to him and his government playing their cards right in respect to the British - the Royal Navy did help the kingdom during it's early days, after all. An invasion of Italian Sabah might be welcomed by Singapore, but it might also increase regional instability and drag everyone into another drawn-out conflict ala. the Sulu Affair.
For now, Charles Brooke is more concentrated on what he has gained from Brunei. He will eye Italian Sabah though, and there is a chance that he might collude with the DEI to nibble off some parts of the region before the Italians place their feet on the ground. Watch this space.
A bit of a prestige spot and an economic colony would be more accurate. By now, the Industrial Revolution would have fully taken hold of Europe and North America, and both Sarawak and the DEI are reaping the full benefits by exporting timber, antimony, gold, silver, coal, sago, pepper, gambier, wild rubber, and other crucial materials. Italy would try and focus on exploiting the same raw materials present in Sabah, but that might be where they will be stumped when compared to their neighbors.
An Italian expansion to Asia might be considered, but the British and the Dutch (and maybe the Spanish and French) might close the net as a response to what happened over Sulu. Still, I can imagine Rome thinking it could snag a treaty port or two in China, and there might be a few unexpected places where the Italian government would find itself being welcomed (albeit grudgingly).
This really depends on how fast can Sarawak and co. react to the new status quo. Sabah can actually be quite the profitable colony if one knows how to manage it right; aside from the aforementioned materials, the region is flushed with oil and it has one of the largest coal reserves in Borneo. However, ground control is key and both the Brookes and the Dutch are veterans in that respect, especially in war and diplomacy with the local Dayaks. But again, both of them are too busy focusing on other things to do anything about the Italians, so that is also something to consider.
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The Italians will need to handle the Dayaks in Eastern Sabah with care. The thing is, I'm not sure they know how. They don't have the decades of experience the Brookes do, nor do they have a local power base they can use as leverage, and I'd guess that most of the officials they send to such a faraway place will be undistinguished and have little knowledge of the culture. And as you say, the Dayaks in the Italian area have been abused more than those in Sarawak. The Italian effort isn't necessarily a lost cause, but I hope they don't plan on turning a profit anytime soon.
Elsewhere in the region, we all knew that Brunei was living on borrowed time, but the interesting part is Johor getting in on the Sulu action. Evidently Johor wants to be a minor colonial power. It will need to become the cadet of a great power if it doesn't want to be muscled out, and there are several possible options. Albert Baker has played the game well so far; it should be interesting to see his next move.
Elsewhere in the region, we all knew that Brunei was living on borrowed time, but the interesting part is Johor getting in on the Sulu action. Evidently Johor wants to be a minor colonial power. It will need to become the cadet of a great power if it doesn't want to be muscled out, and there are several possible options. Albert Baker has played the game well so far; it should be interesting to see his next move.
I'm a little confused.
What exactly is Sulu's status at this point? Did the Spanish occupy the entire archipelago, or just Jolo itself?
What exactly is Sulu's status at this point? Did the Spanish occupy the entire archipelago, or just Jolo itself?
All correct. Besides that, The Italians never had to deal with a nearby polity that treats native participation in government seriously, and thus never had the problem of how to prevent native peoples from choosing the opposite side... until now. New Guinea may be Italy's first colony, but it will be Eastern Sabah that'll really test their know-how on how to run affairs far from home.
To say that the Italians will be learning a crash course in Bornean colonialism would be understating it.
Johor is one of those polities that somehow or other accrued a lot of potential that was either wasted or went unused IOTL. Abu Bakar doesn't - necessarily - want his kingdom to become involved in international affairs, but he knows that paying lip service to the dominant naval power in the region has it's benefits. Besides, the Sulu Affair also opens an opportunity to get rid of the armaments confiscated from the Chinese Kangchu settlers (who were engaging in turf wars across the sultanate), and smuggle them to Jolo for cash. Two birds, one stone.
In political terms, the Sulu Sultanate is still considered as a 'kingdom' so to speak, only that it's now also a part of the Spanish Philippines with Manila holding sovereignty over the archipelago - or at least, that's how Europe sees it. On the ground, this means the Spain is in control of the main islands and can now deploy troops to occupy recalcitrant cities, including Jolo. The old sultan is now deposed and a new puppet one installed, but the residents on the other islands are not giving up just yet.
Johor ittl sounds like heading very much in the direction of OTL's Singapore. Multicultural, business oriented, etc. Obviously, iOTL Singapore didn't become independent until after WWII, so that's a major difference.
International snippets: China and Hawai'i
It's slowly creeping... International snippets: part 1/?
China, 1871-1879:
Excerpt from a letter from Prince Kalākaua to King Lunalilo of Hawai'i, 4 June 1879 (Honolulu National Library archives: obtained 1987)
____________________
Footnotes:
1) The Qing Empress that lived during this period IOTL, Empress Xiaozheyi (Alute), died IOTL without giving birth to an heir, though there were persistent rumors that she was pregnant. ITTL, the Empress and Emperor are still being kept apart, but not before they managed to procreate.
2) The Northern Chinese Famine happens just like IOTL. The migration estimation is based on the coolie records of the day, the effects of the Taiping Rebellion, and the little-known Hakka wars of the south, with some tweaking in regards to the immigration into Johor and Sarawak.
3) King Lunalilo had better control of his alcoholism ITTL, and so lived longer. Kalākaua's trip is based on his IOTL worldwide tour in 1881.
China, 1871-1879:
********************
Excerpt from a letter from Prince Kalākaua to King Lunalilo of Hawai'i, 4 June 1879 (Honolulu National Library archives: obtained 1987)
...and lastly, the Singaporean governor has expressed his interest to visit our nation. As such, we might expect a possible discourse from the British in the near future.
Besides that, I have discovered a few interesting aspects of this British island's neighbours. To the north of Singapore lies the Sultanate of Johore, a Muhammedan kingdom headed by a monarch named Abu Bakar Tun Temenggung. The kingdom is a heavy exporter of spices and wild rubber, and as of late he has begun to use the high profits of the exports to modernize his realm. He has even secured his sultanate's recognition by most of the European empires, just like ours. I have already secured a meeting with this man to find out more about his plans and to see what I can learn from his views.
There is also another interesting kingdom that lies to the east of Singapore, across the South China Sea. It is called "Sarawak" and, most unusually, it is headed by a British family that have declared themselves to be Rajahs! The kingdom is also modernizing – although at a somewhat slower pace than Johore – and it exports a great deal of materials such as antimony, gold, silver, and coal, as well as numerous spices and gutta-percha rubber. I am vacillating whether I should pay a visit to this mysterious "White Rajah", due to the sheer novelty, but I have already overstayed my time here in Malaya, and I might disregard him to visit the Siamese king instead.
Besides that, I have discovered a few interesting aspects of this British island's neighbours. To the north of Singapore lies the Sultanate of Johore, a Muhammedan kingdom headed by a monarch named Abu Bakar Tun Temenggung. The kingdom is a heavy exporter of spices and wild rubber, and as of late he has begun to use the high profits of the exports to modernize his realm. He has even secured his sultanate's recognition by most of the European empires, just like ours. I have already secured a meeting with this man to find out more about his plans and to see what I can learn from his views.
There is also another interesting kingdom that lies to the east of Singapore, across the South China Sea. It is called "Sarawak" and, most unusually, it is headed by a British family that have declared themselves to be Rajahs! The kingdom is also modernizing – although at a somewhat slower pace than Johore – and it exports a great deal of materials such as antimony, gold, silver, and coal, as well as numerous spices and gutta-percha rubber. I am vacillating whether I should pay a visit to this mysterious "White Rajah", due to the sheer novelty, but I have already overstayed my time here in Malaya, and I might disregard him to visit the Siamese king instead.
____________________
Footnotes:
1) The Qing Empress that lived during this period IOTL, Empress Xiaozheyi (Alute), died IOTL without giving birth to an heir, though there were persistent rumors that she was pregnant. ITTL, the Empress and Emperor are still being kept apart, but not before they managed to procreate.
2) The Northern Chinese Famine happens just like IOTL. The migration estimation is based on the coolie records of the day, the effects of the Taiping Rebellion, and the little-known Hakka wars of the south, with some tweaking in regards to the immigration into Johor and Sarawak.
3) King Lunalilo had better control of his alcoholism ITTL, and so lived longer. Kalākaua's trip is based on his IOTL worldwide tour in 1881.
Out of curiosity, what does Malaya's economy as a whole look like compared to OTL's? I would assume the Johor is the richest part by this point, but just how much more developed is it than its OTL counterpart?
So, China has a crown prince, interesting.
And the kingdom of Hawaii makes an appearance.
And the kingdom of Hawaii makes an appearance.
Does this imply that the Tongzhi Emperor will stick around? From what I've read, he wasn't the greatest person to be leading China at this time
And OTL Singapore wasn't around during the time of the Ottoman, Russian and Austro-Hungarian empires, which will play somewhat reluctant yet influencing factors over ITTL Johor. (guess where the raw materials in some manufactured goods came from.
)Other than that, there's still a long way to go before Johor would even come close to Singapore's wealth and trade. It is slowly catching up though, and the next decades might throw some curve-balls in Abu Bakar's favor.
In terms of comparison, Malaya's economy is more developed than OTL, though mostly because of ITTL Johor. In the northwest, the economy is still mostly centered around agriculture and tin mining (which the British are slowly getting in through) and in the northeast, agriculture and fishing make up the local livelihood. Johor is the top player in the Peninsula due to it's strategic position, cash-crop economic policies, earlier modernization (though there is still a long way to go) and ITTL diplomacy.
But things are going to change soon enough. The economic effects of TTL's Russo-Turkish War are going to be felt soon, and the entire Malay Peninsula will be wrenched along for the ride, for better or worse.
Keep it up, sketchdoodle!
Thanks!
The Tongzhi Emperor will live somewhat longer than OTL, but only until the end of the decade at best. His loose living and dissolute personality will destroy his body if the haranguing of the imperial court won't, and Dowager Empress Cixi will try to separate him from his Empress and rule behind the scenes.
However, once he dies the center of attention will pass on to his son and Empress Alute, and that's where things will get really heated. Whoever controls either one of them (or both) would have the keys to the Qing Dynasty, and there will be many many people who will try to get their favor. 1880's China will be a very turbulent period.
And as for Hawaii, let's just say they'll find the East Indies to be quite interesting.
International snippets: Belgium and Russia
International snippets: part 2/?
Martin De Courcy, The Unfinished States; Countries and Colonies Not to Be, (Ostend Press; 2001)
…In 1876, a conference was held in Brussels in which numerous geographers, adventurers, businessmen, and philanthropists gathered together to discuss “humanitarian interests” in the vast Congo basin. The result was the creation of the International African Association, an organization that aims to establish “civilization and development”, in the heart of the Dark Continent. However, what most attendees didn’t realize was that the organization established was nothing more than a front – a façade – to misdirect wandering eyes from the dream of one man: Leopold II, King of the Belgians.
Reigning from 1865 to 1884, Leopold II had big ideas. Surrounded at all sides by colonial-happy nations, the monarch felt that his own nation was far overshadowed in prestige and industrial might. In his view, the kingdom of Belgium could never stand equally with the rest of Western Europe unless it acquires a colony of its own. Even his closest neighbour, the Netherlands, had globe-spanning colonies stretching from South America to the East Indies, an achievement that particularly irked his ego. Such a colony would elevate the kingdom’s prestige and overall greatness, as well as provide the nation with raw materials for further development.
Over the previous two decades, Leopold attempted buying or administering various colonies across Asia, Africa, and South America. All attempts were denied or unsuccessful. In 1876, the monarch turned his sights to the Congo. Besides establishing the IAA, Leopold also began studying on how other nations managed to attain their own kingdoms and empires. He took particular interest on how Great Britain, the United States, and Sarawak managed to expand their territorial holdings against the native peoples inhabiting the conquered territories.
The last of the three especially interested him; Sarawak had grown from nothing more than an adventurer’s dream into a sovereign independent kingdom in just over 3 decades, and it was still expanding. In 1866, when the adventurer-state faced significant internal disorder, Leopold offered to buy the nation outright from the reigning Brooke family. The offer was turned down.
Taking several leafs from the three examples, Leopold began financing numerous expeditions up into the Congo Basin. Carefully worded treaties were signed between dubiously endorsed adventurers and the local chiefs in which their lands would be “administered” by the Association in due time (while in fact giving absolute control to Leopold). Most of the chiefs and village heads had no idea what they were signing for, and the “compensation” for their lands often consisted of simple trinkets or low-value goods disguised as valuable commodities. Military forts were established throughout strategic areas, and so were rudimentary ports, often built using local labour.
Back in Europe, Leopold unleashed a publicity campaign to further justify the Association’s – and by proxy, his own self’s – claim to the region. The Congo Basin was sought by more than just Belgium, and the monarch wanted to make sure any opponent would be cowed or damned by public opinion. He lambasted Portugal’s claim on the basis of past slavery, and denounced a French-funded expedition at the northern side of the Congo River. Britain and Germany were wary, but decided to choose Belgium over their Great Power rivals.
All in all, it seemed that Leopold’s scheme might come to fruition and that the vast Congo basin would be his…
Nectaria Zeepvat, Russia Before the War: 1856-1905 , (Sekvoyya, 1994)
To say that Russia faced a few problems after their war with the Ottomans was an understatement.
Originally designed to increase their influence in the Balkan Peninsula, the resulting conflict instead backfired spectacularly on St. Petersburg and Alexander II. Not only had the Ottomans managed to drive the Russians out after just several months of war, and not only had they turned international opinion to root for the Sublime Porte, but the resulting peace terms were unbelievably damaging to Russia’s interests and national prestige.
For one, the Balkans were out of their hands. True; Serbia, Romania, and Montenegro were formally declared independent, but all three nations recognized their freedom as being brought by international opinion rather than Tsarist endorsement. After the war, none of them were eager for an alliance with a perceptively weak power. Indeed, Romania was especially bitter over the Russian handling of the conflict; tens of thousands of Romanian volunteers had participated on St. Petersburg’s side of the war, and almost all of them were dead by the time the ink was dry at the Conference of Berlin.
Another major headache was public opinion within the Russian Empire itself. There were few who spoke out against the war when it began on April the 1st, but as the months went by – and as the incompetence of the Russian ground commanders became clear – a wellspring of criticism grew against the military governance of the battlefield, and even sometimes towards the imperial establishment and Alexander II himself. Criticism from outside forces was nothing new for the Empire, but having it come from its own people was another matter. Then there was the large war indemnity to consider, which further darkened public opinion against the government, as well as swallowing Russian finances well into the 1890’s.
The imperial administration responded by bleating out scapegoats for the disastrous war. Several corrupt officials were thrown out here and there, but most of the blame was pinned on, as one Russian official said it, “…radicals, collaborators, Moslems and the Jews!” . In all, the loss for the war was blamed on minorities and liberals whom sided with the enemy and made the nation weak, and the xenophobic tone of the government unleashed a wave of Jewish programs and Muslim expulsions, primarily in the Caucasus region and the Pale of Settlement.
Besides that, the government also conducted a roll-back of various civil liberties and public freedoms, attempting to contain some of the more damaging criticism. However, it was this that ultimately doomed Alexander II. In the 12th of May 1879, the Tsar was headed for the weekly military roll-call at the centre of St. Petersburg, accompanied by a small regiment of Cossack guards. As the entourage passed by the Catherine Canal, a group of men quickly ran past the Cossacks and lobbed two packages into the royal carriage.
Alexander didn’t even have the time to shout before the bombs exploded. He never did.
____________________
Notes:
1) Remember Leopold II? Remember how he tried to buy Sarawak? Well, he's baaaack...
Martin De Courcy, The Unfinished States; Countries and Colonies Not to Be, (Ostend Press; 2001)
…In 1876, a conference was held in Brussels in which numerous geographers, adventurers, businessmen, and philanthropists gathered together to discuss “humanitarian interests” in the vast Congo basin. The result was the creation of the International African Association, an organization that aims to establish “civilization and development”, in the heart of the Dark Continent. However, what most attendees didn’t realize was that the organization established was nothing more than a front – a façade – to misdirect wandering eyes from the dream of one man: Leopold II, King of the Belgians.
Reigning from 1865 to 1884, Leopold II had big ideas. Surrounded at all sides by colonial-happy nations, the monarch felt that his own nation was far overshadowed in prestige and industrial might. In his view, the kingdom of Belgium could never stand equally with the rest of Western Europe unless it acquires a colony of its own. Even his closest neighbour, the Netherlands, had globe-spanning colonies stretching from South America to the East Indies, an achievement that particularly irked his ego. Such a colony would elevate the kingdom’s prestige and overall greatness, as well as provide the nation with raw materials for further development.
Over the previous two decades, Leopold attempted buying or administering various colonies across Asia, Africa, and South America. All attempts were denied or unsuccessful. In 1876, the monarch turned his sights to the Congo. Besides establishing the IAA, Leopold also began studying on how other nations managed to attain their own kingdoms and empires. He took particular interest on how Great Britain, the United States, and Sarawak managed to expand their territorial holdings against the native peoples inhabiting the conquered territories.
The last of the three especially interested him; Sarawak had grown from nothing more than an adventurer’s dream into a sovereign independent kingdom in just over 3 decades, and it was still expanding. In 1866, when the adventurer-state faced significant internal disorder, Leopold offered to buy the nation outright from the reigning Brooke family. The offer was turned down.
Taking several leafs from the three examples, Leopold began financing numerous expeditions up into the Congo Basin. Carefully worded treaties were signed between dubiously endorsed adventurers and the local chiefs in which their lands would be “administered” by the Association in due time (while in fact giving absolute control to Leopold). Most of the chiefs and village heads had no idea what they were signing for, and the “compensation” for their lands often consisted of simple trinkets or low-value goods disguised as valuable commodities. Military forts were established throughout strategic areas, and so were rudimentary ports, often built using local labour.
Back in Europe, Leopold unleashed a publicity campaign to further justify the Association’s – and by proxy, his own self’s – claim to the region. The Congo Basin was sought by more than just Belgium, and the monarch wanted to make sure any opponent would be cowed or damned by public opinion. He lambasted Portugal’s claim on the basis of past slavery, and denounced a French-funded expedition at the northern side of the Congo River. Britain and Germany were wary, but decided to choose Belgium over their Great Power rivals.
All in all, it seemed that Leopold’s scheme might come to fruition and that the vast Congo basin would be his…
********************
Nectaria Zeepvat, Russia Before the War: 1856-1905 , (Sekvoyya, 1994)
To say that Russia faced a few problems after their war with the Ottomans was an understatement.
Originally designed to increase their influence in the Balkan Peninsula, the resulting conflict instead backfired spectacularly on St. Petersburg and Alexander II. Not only had the Ottomans managed to drive the Russians out after just several months of war, and not only had they turned international opinion to root for the Sublime Porte, but the resulting peace terms were unbelievably damaging to Russia’s interests and national prestige.
For one, the Balkans were out of their hands. True; Serbia, Romania, and Montenegro were formally declared independent, but all three nations recognized their freedom as being brought by international opinion rather than Tsarist endorsement. After the war, none of them were eager for an alliance with a perceptively weak power. Indeed, Romania was especially bitter over the Russian handling of the conflict; tens of thousands of Romanian volunteers had participated on St. Petersburg’s side of the war, and almost all of them were dead by the time the ink was dry at the Conference of Berlin.
Another major headache was public opinion within the Russian Empire itself. There were few who spoke out against the war when it began on April the 1st, but as the months went by – and as the incompetence of the Russian ground commanders became clear – a wellspring of criticism grew against the military governance of the battlefield, and even sometimes towards the imperial establishment and Alexander II himself. Criticism from outside forces was nothing new for the Empire, but having it come from its own people was another matter. Then there was the large war indemnity to consider, which further darkened public opinion against the government, as well as swallowing Russian finances well into the 1890’s.
The imperial administration responded by bleating out scapegoats for the disastrous war. Several corrupt officials were thrown out here and there, but most of the blame was pinned on, as one Russian official said it, “…radicals, collaborators, Moslems and the Jews!” . In all, the loss for the war was blamed on minorities and liberals whom sided with the enemy and made the nation weak, and the xenophobic tone of the government unleashed a wave of Jewish programs and Muslim expulsions, primarily in the Caucasus region and the Pale of Settlement.
Besides that, the government also conducted a roll-back of various civil liberties and public freedoms, attempting to contain some of the more damaging criticism. However, it was this that ultimately doomed Alexander II. In the 12th of May 1879, the Tsar was headed for the weekly military roll-call at the centre of St. Petersburg, accompanied by a small regiment of Cossack guards. As the entourage passed by the Catherine Canal, a group of men quickly ran past the Cossacks and lobbed two packages into the royal carriage.
Alexander didn’t even have the time to shout before the bombs exploded. He never did.
____________________
Notes:
1) Remember Leopold II? Remember how he tried to buy Sarawak? Well, he's baaaack...
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It's only moved his assassination up by two years, and possibly made the identify of the assassins less obvious.
But the monarchist will view it as a retaliation by the liberals. So they'll still be blamed.
Sure, but it'll probably be much of a muchness in the long term in terms of direct effects. In terms of your comment about an earlier USSR, I think that that would be jumping the gun a bit.
Oh I'm liking all these butterflies from the international situation!
Also is Leopold II going to really be pushing for an overseas empire again? God help whoever he manages to get his hands on...
Also is Leopold II going to really be pushing for an overseas empire again? God help whoever he manages to get his hands on...