Exactly.A power will try to annex Sulu or partition it with Spain just in real life.To fight an expensive war to protect the survival of a farcical,backwater entity like Sulu on the other hand would be out of any government's mind regardless of what deals the companies made. It's not the first time the metropolitan said "f#$k you" to the interest of minor merchants.They most certainly would not spend blood and treasure to protect the interests of a few minor companies against a European power(as pathetic Spain is,it's still a European power,not a third rate 'primitive' Asian country).To this I say: Never underestimate the power of human stupidity. IOTL, the Sultan of Sulu did manage to strike a deal... with a syndicate headed by a British trader and the Austro-Hungarian Consul to Hong Kong. In exchange for a lease (or cede) for North Borneo, the sultanate would be paid back around 5000 Dollars per year. The Consul was even granted the title "Raja of Gaya and Sandakan", though that didn't win him any favors from Vienna.
The good and bad news ITTL is that while events regarding the Sulu Affair have changed, the underlying forces that guide them still somewhat the same as OTL. There are many interested colonial lobbyists in many countries that would actually go try and negotiate with a polity as dubious as Sulu. There are also many companies that would do the same thing, irrespective of their home government's stance on slavery and piracy. The only reason why the trading companies haven't made a deal with Jolo yet is because they know how farcical their deals would be to the royal court; they just wanted a place to sell their goods (though with dubious bankrolling by the officials at Singapore) , especially the armaments smugglers and merchants.
Of course, there are also companies and governments that don't know very much about Sulu and it's credibility. In other words, Jolo might be on it's way out, but not before courting any nation, company, and third-party officers and diplomats they could find.
It might happen. With more international attention (in a way) to the southern Philippines, Manila might try to colonize and "pacify" Mindanao earlier than OTL to prevent another Affair like the one happening at Sulu. However, that might cause enough international attention of it's own; Walls are porous in Southeast Asia, and especially in the compounds of diplomats in the various capitals...
Well, I admit I am a bit rusty on Philippine history. Hmm... considering the significance of the Cavite Mutiny, I'll flip a coin and say it did happen with some variances from OTL. In fact, I wonder if the added pressure from watching over Luzon, dealing with Sulu, and greater interest in Mindanao would cause some unexpected changes in the colonial government. A harsher crackdown leading to more intellectuals fleeing the country? A repression on the Moros that would backfire if any foreign aid/protection/officials hear about it?
Filipino specialists, I need your help on this one!
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