Sweet, you just butterflied the Riau Islands from Indonesian to Sarawakian jurisdiction.
Sweet, you just butterflied the Riau Islands from Indonesian to Sarawakian jurisdiction.
Sweet, you just butterflied the Riau Islands from Indonesian to Sarawakian jurisdiction.
Tell that to UMNO politicians... A lot of them can trace their ancestry to Riau...
I expect that Italian control of Aceh will be very nominal, and that any attempt to exert full authority will end the way the 1896 Ethiopian expedition did IOTL. On the other hand, Italy's ability to protect Aceh from Dutch incursions is probably not high.
The Biak Islands, for now, seem like a prestige colony or at most a coaling station, but it would be interesting if Italy picked up some of Papua, especially if a traders' pidgin based on Italian rather than German or English took root there.
Regarding Italy meddling, the British must take in consideration not only the local situation but even the european one.
Italy ITTL is the new kid on the block but also a nation that had clearly beat the Hapsburg on her own (probably also aquiring Trentino in the process in this war) making her a more interesting ally and frankly 6 more years of Cavour administration will have probably produced a situation at least a little better than OTL, in term of economy, industry and diplomatic recognition.
So it's both a possible rival but also a possible ally; Nappy III had always wanted an alliance with an Unified Italy (or at least the North Italian part and naturally with France as the dominant) but at the moment there is the Roman question that represent an almost insurmountable obstacle for this, still a Franco-Italian alliance is seen by London as a very problematic developement as it's mean the Mediterrean is no more British dominated.
Hmm... Italy defeating the Habsburgs will definitely put it into greater status in Europe (though some will point out that they had to ask North Germany for an alliance) and Cavour's extra years in government would make it more industrialized, at least in the northern parts. For the south... did Cavour and the governments under him approve much of protectionist policies? That would be a big step towards re-balancing development and wealth. Then again, that will not stop the country's population boom and that's a whole new can of worms to deal with.
Garibaldi didn't do an 1862 expedition but I can't help but wonder if he's the kind of guy to just sit around and letting the prime minister dictate what he can do.
The American Civil War did sound attractive, and Cavour would likely want him to go there. All the same, I can't help but think he might pull an 1862 or go off to South America to join some conflict or other (Definitely not Aceh, though I wish he could). I'll leave this question to those more knowledgeable than me. What do you all think?
As for alliances, Napoleon III would likely court Italy, but after Cavour's death the new government(s) might not be warm to France, since Rome is technically protected by French troops. London would likely try to wedge in against any alliance-making, but I wonder if the Royal Navy might take things into their own hands by taking Tunisia itself, or at least it's ports; A more industrialized + colony-happy Italy would eye Tunisia a great deal earlier than OTL. Of course, such a move by the British would enrage Italy and make it lean even more towards a French alliance, so that's something to think about.
Thanks for enjoying this!
On China, definitely. The Qing Empire will be attractive to the Great Powers the same way it was attractive IOTL, and Italy will want a piece of it. The British will be most definitely unhappy about this and would try to limit Rome's reach over there, but a treaty port or two would be on the Italian agenda for sure. The Japanese...I actually haven't thought about them much *oops* but I think it's political and economic situation will be more or less the same ITTL, and a British alliance is also secured.
As for Aceh, let's just say there are now two Great Powers already eyeing it and neither of them wants to back down. I can't help but sympathize with the Acehnese for this.
Italy immediately after the declared unification was a mess, almost nobody speak the same language, different institution and even different system of measurament and the fact that the goverment were weak and lasted less than a year surely doesn't help.
The existence of a single continuos goverment for 6/7 years will surely smooth things up...at least a little.
Well, it's easy to enjoy
Italy's probably going to try to build a larger navy than OTL, and build it quickly - if they want to claim and defend land that's so far from the homeland, then they need to. Which could lead to additional hostility between themselves and the naval giant that is Britain, like happened with the German build-up OTL. And that could lead to a different lot of alliances by the 20th century, depending on how far you go.
Sarawak has a lot of potential as a nation. If it manages a gradual modernisation, then it'll be in a nice position to make use of its oil reserves when they become relevant...
Maybe France...after all, their colonial rivalry with Britain could get pretty intense (Fashoda, anyone?). And I could see a potential mutual agreement in East Asia - they both agree to look after one another's interests there in the event of war with a third party. Especially if the Italian fleet does expand heavily - the French could see them as a useful ally to bulk out their own naval assets.
True about natural resources and absolute monarchs - provided the monarch in question sees the value of putting the money into infrastructure and such rather than building his fifth palace I don't think that'll be a major problem here, though.
Oooh, wasn't there one time when France wanted to expand into Indochina and the Pearl River Delta and asked for anyone to join in? I think that happened in the 1890's, I can't remember the source, but I distinctly remember that part. With the possibly of Tunisia being a Italo-French condominium, she could easily be Britain's other enemy, especially since the Congo issue hasn't been resolved yet (Sorry Leopold, but you've gotta go). That just leaves Germany and Austria-Hungary. Heh, imagine if all Europe went to war and the two powers everyone thought would fight didn't. Talk about irony.
Regarding Tunisia, now the French takeover took in consideration the fact that nobody thoughs Italy objected as just week before it signed an important commercial agreement with France and the new kingdom was had a great monetary debt with the Third French Republic; now a little more powerful Italy (plus some more 'street creed'), with a slighlty better internal and economic situation can be seen as a strong enough opponet to put the conquest project in hold.
Both France and Italy at the time were isolated diplomatically so politicians in Paris can see an alliance with the italians favorable enough to take in consideration a condominioum over Tunisia or at least protect the italian economic interest and rights.
A Franco-Italian alliance would mean the Mediterranean becomes a Latin Lake (Latin Alliance being a possible name).
IRC it was during the Sino-French war that Paris asked if anyone was interested in join her in the endevour and if there is a France-Italian alliance plus a sizeble italian colonial interest in the zone it's probable that Rome will lend an hand (expecially if it mean some support in the zone from France and a port treaty in China).
Franco-Italian alliance will make people sweats a lot in London, expecially an Italy with a stronger navy (and without the commercial war with France in the 80's Italy will be a lot more strong economically) and ironically this alliance can scare Wien (and Moscow) enough to keep the three emperor's alliance as with Cavour at the helm for another handfull of years Italy will have a more liberal attitude
London might seek out Vienna as a possible check against this... even though Berlin would still be a rival, Vienna's interests don't really conflict with London. Plus, with Austria being supported by Britain itself, that Austrian colony in Borneo might not be so far-fetched anymore.
Awesome map. That alliance system sounds pretty much right - and let's face it, it wouldn't be the first time the English and Dutch had teamed up against France Germany and Austria... I'd agree with Badshah about Austria definitely being courted by Britain. Germany would depend on who ran it - if Bismarck ended up in charge as OTL, I can see Britain maybe forming a temporary alliance. Like, still rivals, but recognising that they share enemies (especially given that Bismarck had no real interest in colonial ventures, that alone would make him less threatening to England than the Latin Alliance).
Inspired by this TL, I've started reading The White Rajah by Steven Runciman (that was after reading the Wikipedia entry ). Interesting that a guy whose main specialty was Byzantium and the Crusades chose that as his sole foray into modern history, butI can really see why the Brookes and their history inspired you the way it did!
So when can we see the entire Sultanate of Sulu annexed to Spain?
Actually Germany needn't be formally involved. Austria-Hungary and Britain didn't have bad relations OTL, and the Austrians do have an interest in a stable Ottoman Empire. And if Britain is firmly supporting Austria, then Austria doesn't need to stick as firmly to Germany as OTL. Vienna could probably be a benign neutral in a Europe-wide conflict for once.
I have to admit, a neutral A-H with a stake in Sarawak sounds very much like something I want to see happen. But I'm worried for Serbia and the Balkans; with a timeline this far back, there is a major chance for the Back Hand to be butterflied. Still, that doesn't mean Serbian or Bulgarian nationalism will be a done thing, especially if Russia supports them against A-H and the Ottomans.
So, all in all...
Great Britain/Netherlands + Ottomans vs. Latin Alliance (Italy & France) + Russia.
Austria-Hungary may swing to London (Hello, new Quadruple Alliance!!) or stays neutral. Still no idea on Germany.
Perhaps my eyes have failed me, I believe you forgot to colour Penang as part of the Straits Settlement on the map. Might want to use a more distinct colour for areas of British control and influence.
The foreign policy of Bismarckian Germany was focused primarily on containing France but otherwise remaining a "neutral broker" between the nations of Europe, so Berlin can really swing either way if their stance is close to the OTL one.
Also I could theoretically see an Austro-Hungarian company specifically founded for trade of all sorts with Sarawak, since that is actually something the Dual Monarchy could pull off without making it too much of a complicated mess (which hindered AH from partaking in the colonial game IOTL).