Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

I would caution against seeing the Iron Curtain further to the East than OTL.
The war in the East is going somewhat worse than OTL for the Germans already. Soviet strategic blunders such as the Kiev encirclement may not happen TTL either, which could see the Germans in the East decisively defeated in 1941 as opposed to 1942. All bets are off if something like this happens and we could even find the Iron Curtain further to the West than OTL.
A lot can happen between now and 1945.
I think I mentioned this before but I still think that Greece holding on might result in more of a Northern/Southern European split, the Soviets might push further west but the w-allies could push further north up from Greece since they already have a landing point. Maybe instead of east/west Germany it'll be North/South Germany. That might actually be a way for Austria to roll into a future German state if 'Reunification' happens, if the w-allies only reach say Nuremburg/Frankfurt they might get rolled into a 'South German' state, maybe 'North Germany' could hold onto Pomerania in this case too to contest the south? By the same token that might also butterfly reunification entirely, if there is to be a split.

I think there's good odds on a western-aligned Yugo for the same reason with a occupied Bulgaria, and if Romania does flip,
I wonder, if Romannia flips sides in the war - could you see units of the free Polish army in Greece pushing up into Galicia and liberating parts of the southern Poland? That would have some big butterfly potential for the government and borders of Poland.
they might be in a 'decentish' position to appeal to the w-allies, would depend on their timing though. Liberating much of Poland might be pushing it but retaking a smallish slice of East Galicia might result in modern Poland's eastern borders resembling the 'General Government''s that the Nazi's set up with maybe a rump state around Lwow/Lviv through the cold war. Might prompt the USSR to give their polish puppet all of E-Prussia? That would probably be the absolute best-case scenario for Free-Poland and the w-allies though.
 
A more South West/North East split is definitely a possibility TTL.
Geography mitigates against a significant South/North split of Europe though. It is a long way from Athens to Berlin, just like it was a long way from Rome to Berlin OTL with the Italian campaign and the resource sink it proved to be. By contrast going from Normandy to Berlin is easier as there are no mountains to cross and plenty of infrastructure to support vast offensives.
Reconquering Greece is unlikely to happen before late 1942 or even 1943 at best. Especially since controlling North Africa and Sicily is even more important OTL to ensure faster convoy shipping to and from Greece and the Middle East. This logistic imperative is also why as much stuff should be made in Greece as possible to support Allied efforts in the Med.
In my view, other than in Turkey to relieve Smyrna, initial allied offensives during 1941 and early 1942 are likely to be in North Africa. The sooner French North Africa can flip to the Allies, the better the strategic picture becomes. This is why as I said in a previous post, I see initial allied offensives in Turkey being somewhat low key affairs focusing on infantry and artillery along with some motorised support.
Later on, moving from Greece to the Danube means crossing several mountain ranges against determined ennemy opposition. Crossing into Romania means crossing the Danube at its widest point. In effect, an invasion of Romania from Bulgaria would have to be prepared like a naval invasion, with specialist equipment, engineers and pontoons at the ready to secure the crossing.
 
I think it's likely that the Soviets hold less of central Europe ittl as they have to fight in Turkey while the Nazis mostly are fighting in the Northern European plain. As a result I think it's likely that the WAllies would be able to march into more of Germany as the Soviets may be pushed further back than otl.

Also, is landing troops in Pomerania feasible in the late stages of the war?
 
Interlude where are they now - 1941 part 2
Antoine Béthouart is leading the Free French forces in Greece. There is a lot pressure to transfer the French troops to Syria but general Charles De Gaulle at the head of the Free French army in Syria can see how this which militarily useful would not be a good idea politically.

Ismail Canbulat is head of the Renewal party as the CUP has been renamed after the Great war. He's technically out of government, but backs Peker, while the Renewal party entusiastically supports the war against the Soviets.

Sir John Carden, continues to work for Vickers. His Centaur tank is Britain's best design at the moment and given the mixed reports being received from frontline units about the Crusader tank there is some thought whether Crusader should be replaced in the production lines with Centaur.

Raoul Castex, is commander in chief of Free French armed forces. He and admiral Durand-Viel were responsible for bringing the French forces in Constantinople to the Free French side, with his quick action afterwards gaining also Syria for Free France.

Chrysanthus II, patriarch of Constantinople was executed, earlier in the year, his death sentence was outstanding by the Turkish courts of independence since 1921. The ecumenical see remains empty so far.

Corneliu Codreanu is part of the Romanian government, since the government of Ion Bratianu was overthrown in the afterman of Romanian defeat in Bessarabia. Ion Antonesku is not particlarly happy about it but so far has had no excuse to confront Codreanu's Iron Guard. The regime has put most older politicials like Ion Maniu under house arrest.

Michael Collins, having survived an assassination two decades earlier remains the undisputed leader of Ireland. He has led his nation well and surprisingly has a good wirking relationship with Winston Churchill dating back to the peace negotiations that secured Irish independence. ireland remains neutral. But she is an increasingly pro-allied neutral.

Penelope Delta is again at work after completing her massive Romiopoules. A few months before with the Germans apparently driving to Athens she came to the brink of suicide. Thermopylae restored her faith and her determination. She can't give up any more than the Greek boys dying to stop the Huns and the Bulgarians at Thermopylae. She's feverisly writing again. Her new book takes a similar theme with her earlier "At the time of the Bulgarslayer" this time about a young woman trying to help the army of Nikephoros Ouranos against the Bulgarians of Tsar Samuel in the lead to the batle of Spercheios. That the action is taking place in the same area with the current fighting is hardly accidental...

Alec Isigonis is working for ELEO in Greece after being mobilized. He's not entirely happy about it but when the marching orders come there is not much you can do. Besides ELEO is partly owned by his family so he both has way more leeway than he had in the British companies he worked for and direct economic incentives, ELEO profits ultimately end to his own pockets as well.

Kazim Karabekir, had been minister of war from 1922 to the death of Kemal in 1938. The rebuilding of the Turkish army following the Great War has largely been his work. Following an unsuccessful bit to succeed Kemal he had been eased out of power and sent as an ambassador to Moscow. He's back to Sivas after the declaration of war and still a member of the rand National Assembly. Both he and his friend Ismet Ismirli pasha are being quietly watched by the regime but Peker does not dare do anything against them.

Zvi Koretz, remains arch-rabbi of the Jewish community of Thessaloniki. The occupation has been hard on the Jews, but no organized large scale action against them has taken place. Yet. Koretz has some hope. After all for all the thuggery seen before the start of the war the nation of Goethe, surely cannot descend into complete barbarism. In the meantime he has more immediate problems like the absence of a large part of the males of working age from the community, the largely Jewish 50th Infantry regiment of the Greek army is fighting on in the south.

Sergei Korolev, was denounced and arrested in March 1938 along with Valentin Glushko. Both of them were lucky, short off, to avoid the GULAG, after 17 months of imprisonment they were moved to a sharashka under Tupolev in August 1939. A friendship has been born during their imprisonment...

Thomas Edward Lawrence, is leading SOE commandos and Kurdish guerrilas, somewhere in Turkish Kurdistan. It can be a sometimes frustrating experience. But Lawrence is not doing this for the first time and the knights of Saint George, of which SOE has an abundance, can be mighty persuasive.

Rauf Orbay, is navy minister. Over the past two decades he has been able to regenerate the navy, but frustratingly its fsingle major encounter with the Greeks has not gone particularly well.

Recep Peker is the "Millî Şef", the national chief of Turkey and head of the ruling Halk partisi. He has joined the Axis, a choice that has proven hugely successful so far but also brought Turkey fighting on four fronts. He understands well that he has to keep marshall Fevzi Cakmak on his side. Often overlooked, Cakmak has been hugely influential since 1919...

Zygmunt Pulawski, survived a near crash of his PZL.12 prototype back in 1931. His fighter designs have been something of a sensation in the past decades. He was able to escape the fall of Poland in 1939 and along with several other Polish engineers and technicians was quickly employed in KEA the Greek State Aircraft Factory which was already assembling his own P.50 and PZL.37. He fears PZL.37 despite being successful won't be staying for much longer in the production lines, as the Greeks are not able to make all too many of them. But Ierax II an improved version of his P.50 is in service with further improvements of the drawing board. As is Lynx a two engined design loosely based on PZL.54, the drawings for that could not be saved when Poland fell. Hopefully when Poland is liberated he and his fellow engineers will be able to resurrect Polish aviation industry from the work they are doing in Greece...

Aca Stanojevic, has been prime minister of Yugoslavia and continues to lead the government in exile despite his age, he's 89 at the moment.

Milan Stojadinovic, had been in exile in Rome since his government was overthrown by pro-allied forces in Christmas 1937. With Serbia occupied he's back in Belgrade leading a collaborationist government there...

Vladimir Triandafillov is leading an army in the Caucasus front. The units under his command, have shown the best performance during the recent Soviet offensive pushing nearly to the gates of Erzurum before German and Turkish reinforcements managed to stop the Soviet advance.

Jose Varela is leading troops loyal to the government of general Ochoa against the Falangists and Alfosists under Emilio Mola and Juan Yague in had has become the 2nd Spanish Civil war. Both sides are exhausted from the previous war and unlike it no external help is forthcoming so far.
 
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Corneliu Codreanu is part of the Romanian government, since the government of Ion Bratianu was overthrown in the afterman of Romanian defeat in Bessarabia. Ion Antonesku is not particlarly happy about it but so far has had no excuse to confront Codreanu's Iron Guard. The regime has put most older politicials like Ion Maniu under house arrest.
Is it wrong I can mentally see some meat hooks right now being prepared by the thugs of the Iron Guard?
 
Nice to see Penelope Delta live on.
If there is someone you want to see in the where are they now instalments now is the time to mention it... :angel:
Actually what became of the former Greek royal family? Alexander had a pair of daughters with Aspasia ttl if I remember right, where'd they end up? Monarchism seems to be pretty solidly dead in Greece but I'm curious what the last Greek royals might have gotten up to?

Can't remember if they got mentioned anywhere after the second daughter.
 
Any other territorial changes depend on the outcome of the great war and Bulgarian and Ottoman participation to it on the side of the Central Powers.

Zvi Koretz, remains arch-rabbi of the Jewish community of Thessaloniki. The occupation has been hard on the Jews, but no organized large scale action against them has taken place. Yet. Koretz has some hope. After all for all the thuggery seen before the start of the war the nation of Goethe, surely cannot descend into complete barbarism. In the meantime he has more immediate problems like the absence of a large part of the males of working age from the community, the largely Jewish 50th Infantry regiment of the Greek army is fighting on in the south.
The silver lining is that a fair number of Jewish men will escape the Holocaust.

There might be a chance to save part of the civilians if Pangalos can reach Thessaloniki before the last trains depart...

Sergei Korolev, was denounced and arrested in March 1938 along with Valentin Glushko. Both of them were lucky, short off, to avoid the GULAG, after 17 months of imprisonment they were moved to a sharashka under Tupolev in August 1939. A friendship has been born during their imprisonment...
So they have started working 5 years earlier... Interesting butterflies.

Hopefully when Poland is liberated he and his fellow engineers will be able to resurrect Polish aviation industry from the work they are doing in Greece...
Or with Poland under stalinist yoke, he can continue his good work in Greece...

Aca Stanojevic, has been prime minister of Yugoslavia and continues to lead the government in exile despite his age, he's 89 at the moment.
Are there 8 serbian divisions in Greece?

Also, what happened to the pretty decent old artillery park that I mentioned some time ago? Has a part of it found its way to the theater of operations?

What are the Free French doing with their Smaug-horde pile of gold they have ?
 
If there is someone you want to see in the where are they now instalments now is the time to mention it... :angel:
I would be curious to know the fate of some French and British figures TTL:
-Paul Reynaud
-Georges Mandel
-Enoch Powell (was a fluent Greek speaker)
-Philippe Leclerc
-Jean Touzet du Vigier
-François de la Rocque

How is Napoleon Zervas doing too?
 
How well do you guys think the USSR is going to fare in Barbarossa? Since the USSR would have two fronts (Caucasus front) I'd think it's reasonable to say that the USSR would have less troops to fight the Germans, therefore I'd think that the Germans should do better at Barbarossa. Idk if they manage to take Moscow or not (fighting/taking Moscow would be interesting) but the Germans should do better, it's just that I don't think the Germans will do worse, and should be doing better in all accounts.
 
How well do you guys think the USSR is going to fare in Barbarossa? Since the USSR would have two fronts (Caucasus front) I'd think it's reasonable to say that the USSR would have less troops to fight the Germans, therefore I'd think that the Germans should do better at Barbarossa. Idk if they manage to take Moscow or not (fighting/taking Moscow would be interesting) but the Germans should do better, it's just that I don't think the Germans will do worse, and should be doing better in all accounts.
Not necessarily, several strategic blunders and more fronts to divert resources to is tough. Beyond that, the caucasus has perfect terrain for defense with a minimalist amount of forces. The Soviets have also had quite some luck. Don't forget that Hitler wasn't the greatest military mind, and he will likely still attempt to reach Stalingrad to sort of encircle the caucasus.

And beyond that, the truth is, any breakthrough for Greece can cause chaos in Turkey, their logistics are probably the easiest to ruin. And I do see Hitler attempt to divert forces if there is a risk of encirclement of the German troops assisting in mesopotamia. He's pretty good at focusing on too many things at once, or focusing on one singular target, both of those could spell doom.
 
Is it wrong I can mentally see some meat hooks right now being prepared by the thugs of the Iron Guard?
I don't think you'd be getting much wrong. And the Romanian army in the Eastern front was uhm bad to put it politely. After they had suppressed the Iron Guard.
Nice to see Penelope Delta live on.
I like the old lady. Besides she was a Venizelist and I'm unabashedly Venizelist.
Actually what became of the former Greek royal family? Alexander had a pair of daughters with Aspasia ttl if I remember right, where'd they end up? Monarchism seems to be pretty solidly dead in Greece but I'm curious what the last Greek royals might have gotten up to?

Can't remember if they got mentioned anywhere after the second daughter.
Oh they got mentioned. Where they staged a failed coup in 1924 and when queen Helena of Romania had a girl instead of OTL Michael. :angel:
To be honest i didn't expect plastiras to be passed for corp command...but i am sure you have something in store for him
Why would Pangalos not pass over Plastiras. He apparently held an uhm reserved opinion of his abilities. Which all things considered wasn't necessarily wrong. "Black Rider" and such sure, honest to the level of stupidity again sure... but we are talking about a man who as prime minister got convinced to hold the elections he lost in a landslide, among other things by his personal coffee reader (For our non Greek/Turkish/Arab readers fortune telling by the sediment left after you drunk a cup of coffee). Who for good measure was in foreign pay. I'm unimpressed and so was Pangalos.
The silver lining is that a fair number of Jewish men will escape the Holocaust.

There might be a chance to save part of the civilians if Pangalos can reach Thessaloniki before the last trains depart...
We shall see, what we shall see. At the moment both Thessaloniki and Constantinople have Jewish populations in the tens of thousands. So does Smyrna if on a smaller scale.
So they have started working 5 years earlier... Interesting butterflies.
They have not started working together earlier. But there are two pretty important changes. First Korolev avoided Kolyma which is hardly bad for his health. Second he has NOT been denounced by Glushko as both got arrested together.
Or with Poland under stalinist yoke, he can continue his good work in Greece...
What do you mean Poland under the Stalinist yoke? Surely are great western allies will ensure the freedom of Poland?
Are there 8 serbian divisions in Greece?
I haven't seen any mentions of the Royal Yugoslav army suffering disaster. OTOH they have reorganized just like the Greeks did.

Also, what happened to the pretty decent old artillery park that I mentioned some time ago? Has a part of it found its way to the theater of operations?
No comment. But I'm estimating there is enough shipping available at the moment for Greece to be getting about 30,000t of military supplies per month at the moment. That's on top of ~130,000t of non strictly military supplies a month. By comparison Alexandria was receiving about 150,000t of military supplies per month in 1941.

What are the Free French doing with their Smaug-horde pile of gold they have ?
Well what are they doing about it? Roosevelt still has his entirely undeserved anti-De Gaulle obsession I think, even with De Gaulle being way more relevant but Free France... should be able to place and pay for orders through Britain (or Greece for that matter) while US authorities pretend it's just the British arming them. All too accidentaly with American bought Mustangs.
I would be curious to know the fate of some French and British figures TTL:
-Paul Reynaud
-Georges Mandel
-Enoch Powell (was a fluent Greek speaker)
-Philippe Leclerc
-Jean Touzet du Vigier
He went to North Africa in early 1942 in OTL I understand? Asking for a friend. :angel:
-François de la Rocque
Question for our French readers here... is there a reasonable plausible way for Marcel Bloch to have escaped mainland France? Did he actually try to in OTL?

How is Napoleon Zervas doing too?
Well enough, he's commanding the VIII Infantry Division, Plastiras former command.

And beyond that, the truth is, any breakthrough for Greece can cause chaos in Turkey, their logistics are probably the easiest to ruin. And I do see Hitler attempt to divert forces if there is a risk of encirclement of the German troops assisting in mesopotamia. He's pretty good at focusing on too many things at once, or focusing on one singular target, both of those could spell doom.
I'll only comment that Adolf when all is said and done was a talented amatour who failed to make officer grade in 1914-18...
 
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Oh they got mentioned. Where they staged a failed coup in 1924 and when queen Helena of Romania had a girl instead of OTL Michael.
I remembered the royalist coup attempt, but I was actually asking about Alexander's Family. I went back to check and Aspasia still hadn't had ttl Alexandra yet by the time of the coup, and they're not mentioned again after she was born and triggered the referendum as far as I can tell. It didn't read like they were actually associated with the coup themselves...

So I was curious what happened to Aspasia and her daughters? Somehow I doubt they ended up in Italy like otl after the coup attempt and Corfu on the heels of that? Alexandra had a pretty miserable life in otl so I was hoping she could get a mildly better ending than what she got, and Sophia just straight up never existed in reality so whatever she does is a butterfly by itself.

Also shall we see a Princess's coup in Romania ttl with not!Michael shuffled off of succession? (I'm joking but only mostly). Actually come to think of it, a fair few problems for monarchies in ttl Balkans, and ours actually reading up on it a bit, seem like they'd have been alleviated if they just let women in on the succession with as often as kings were dropping dead back then.:confused:
 
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If there is someone you want to see in the where are they now instalments now is the time to mention it... :angel:
I would like to know about these Italian figures ITTL:
  1. Italo Gariboldi
  2. Giovanni Messe
  3. Goffredo Tonini
  4. Teseo Tesei (I really hope he didn't die like in OTL)
  5. Junio Valerio Borghese
Really hoping to see some successful raids carried out by the Decima Flottiglia MAS in order to try to balance somewhat the naval war after TTL Matapan...
 
I'll only comment that Adolf when all is said and done was a talented amateur who failed to make officer grade in 1914-18...
I think during the initial months of Barbarossa Russia would have less troops since they are in the Caucasus front, while Germany would have the same amount of soldiers/stuff.
 
I think during the initial months of Barbarossa Russia would have less troops since they are in the Caucasus front, while Germany would have the same amount of soldiers/stuff.
Not necessarily, up until the end of 1941 the Soviets had a lot of forces stationed across the Japanese/Manchurian border. I can imagine that with the caucasus front being a major security threat that they would draw forces from there to the caucasus, and beyond that, the far Eastern forces where some of the most experienced soviet troops at the time.

But now I wonder, what is the total troop count of the militaries involved in Europe? Is it around the same count as otl? Or has Germany mobilized more men due to more fronts?
 
Not necessarily, up until the end of 1941 the Soviets had a lot of forces stationed across the Japanese/Manchurian border. I can imagine that with the caucasus front being a major security threat that they would draw forces from there to the caucasus, and beyond that, the far Eastern forces where some of the most experienced soviet troops at the time.

But now I wonder, what is the total troop count of the militaries involved in Europe? Is it around the same count as otl? Or has Germany mobilized more men due to more fronts?

Basically, I think the USSR would roughly have the same amount of material and people but spread more thin as some would be in the Caucasus, which is why I think the Germans would do better.

PS: how would Ethiopia avoid it's otl communist phase? Idk how to do so. Have another emperor on the throne? Have Haile Salassie do land reforms?
 
I would like to know about these Italian figures ITTL:
  1. Italo Gariboldi
  2. Giovanni Messe
  3. Goffredo Tonini
  4. Teseo Tesei (I really hope he didn't die like in OTL)
  5. Junio Valerio Borghese
Really hoping to see some successful raids carried out by the Decima Flottiglia MAS in order to try to balance somewhat the naval war after TTL Matapan...
Apart from these, I think that it is safe to assume that at least BB Giulio Cesare will be salvaged from Taranto and return to service in ate 1941/early 1942.
 
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