Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

So, at that point, I guess more extensive measures of partial mobilization would have been decreed by the Greek government, aren't they?
It doesn't seem there are any moves from Bulgaria yet, but Italy and Turkey are clearly gearing up towards confrontation with Greece it would inferred from the June Incident in Constantinople.
 
I'm at a loss, to be honest. What can Greece demand from the allies for European Konstantinopolis? If they state European Constantinople or an end to their alliance, then Turkey, Italy, and Bulgaria will probably declare war sooner. Pulling a stunt like Turkey and threatening war would be ludicrous, so that is out of the question, right? Perhaps an alliance with the Soviets? If the Greeks were to give Soviets free rein through the straits, I could see that threat working perhaps? Or maybe I'm overthinking and Greece just partially mobilizes 100K troops and forcefully takes European Constantinople and deports the allies from the straits? Hmm, quite the dilemma...
 
I'm at a loss, to be honest. What can Greece demand from the allies for European Konstantinopolis? If they state European Constantinople or an end to their alliance, then Turkey, Italy, and Bulgaria will probably declare war sooner. Pulling a stunt like Turkey and threatening war would be ludicrous, so that is out of the question, right? Perhaps an alliance with the Soviets? If the Greeks were to give Soviets free rein through the straits, I could see that threat working perhaps? Or maybe I'm overthinking and Greece just partially mobilizes 100K troops and forcefully takes European Constantinople and deports the allies from the straits? Hmm, quite the dilemma...
I mean, do they need to be that hostile? France is collapsing in the face of the German advance, they will probably be forced to pull out regardless of Greek pressure. And as for the British, the Greeks can just say ‘Either we take the city of the Turks do’, and the British will obviously side with the Greeks.
 
Besides, they could just as easily invoke the same argument the Turks did, one they couldn't possibly contest without moving out in the open.
 
I think that the Battle of the Ligurian Sea is going to prove significant.
I wouldn't be surprised if it led to either Noguès deciding the honor of France isn't safe and joining with the Free French, leading to a De Gaulle government-in-exile in Alger instead of London (which would have a lot more legitimacy and would naturally sweep up the Empire), or the Force de Raid joining the Free French and avoiding Mers El-Kébir, which did sour the French on the English.
Either way both possibilities are boosts to the Free French inside France proper.
To quote myself... "The Force de Raid retires to Toulon". Now presumidly Darlan could order Srasbourg and Bretagne or one of them out to Mers El Kebir while Dunkerque is being repaired but this would mean splitting up his force and the timing isn't very convenient, the French are back at Toulon in the 15th, the armistice negotiations begin two days later. Post that Gensoul has just been handed the worst French naval defeat since Trafalgar... from the Italians and there is certainly a substantial degree of looking down at the Italians. Who's put in his place instead and how soon? Collinet has done well with the Strasbourg in the battle but would have to be promoted and Godfroy is available since his OTL force is in Constantinople under Castex.

Nogues made the right noises granted prior to the armistice, only to do an about turn when the armistice took place and not much is available on him in the way of English resources. What's our French members thinking? @jeandebueil ?

So, at that point, I guess more extensive measures of partial mobilization would have been decreed by the Greek government, aren't they?
It doesn't seem there are any moves from Bulgaria yet, but Italy and Turkey are clearly gearing up towards confrontation with Greece it would inferred from the June Incident in Constantinople.
The assumption is navy and air force are in full war footing, army just like OTL is calling up reserve officers and specialists by the thousands for refresher training and then conveniently "forgetting" to release them after the training is complete and some divisions having been outright mobilized. All rather quietly, "nothing to see here mate, really"

I'm at a loss, to be honest. What can Greece demand from the allies for European Konstantinopolis? If they state European Constantinople or an end to their alliance, then Turkey, Italy, and Bulgaria will probably declare war sooner. Pulling a stunt like Turkey and threatening war would be ludicrous, so that is out of the question, right? Perhaps an alliance with the Soviets? If the Greeks were to give Soviets free rein through the straits, I could see that threat working perhaps? Or maybe I'm overthinking and Greece just partially mobilizes 100K troops and forcefully takes European Constantinople and deports the allies from the straits? Hmm, quite the dilemma...
That's a question for Dragoumis, to answer...

I mean, do they need to be that hostile? France is collapsing in the face of the German advance, they will probably be forced to pull out regardless of Greek pressure. And as for the British, the Greeks can just say ‘Either we take the city of the Turks do’, and the British will obviously side with the Greeks.
The French have substantial forces in Constantinople at the moment. There's the TTL 193e DI consisting of the 24e RMIC, 6e REI and the 2nd Armenian regiment. Then there's a substantial naval force with Lorraine, 3 heavy cruisers and 4 destroyers. Plus some air force units, there should be at least a fighter group and a bomber group present. By western front standards 50 or 100 aircraft may not be much but for the Balkans and Eastern Mediterranean they are a notable force. What happens to them... why Greeks, Turks, British, Soviets just to name a few will be most interested to know...
 
To quote myself... "The Force de Raid retires to Toulon". Now presumidly Darlan could order Srasbourg and Bretagne or one of them out to Mers El Kebir while Dunkerque is being repaired but this would mean splitting up his force and the timing isn't very convenient, the French are back at Toulon in the 15th, the armistice negotiations begin two days later. Post that Gensoul has just been handed the worst French naval defeat since Trafalgar... from the Italians and there is certainly a substantial degree of looking down at the Italians. Who's put in his place instead and how soon? Collinet has done well with the Strasbourg in the battle but would have to be promoted and Godfroy is available since his OTL force is in Constantinople under Castex.

Nogues made the right noises granted prior to the armistice, only to do an about turn when the armistice took place and not much is available on him in the way of English resources. What's our French members thinking? @jeandebueil ?
First Noguès would be the leader of the Free French, since De Gaulle actually asked him several times to lead them in late June 1940.
Gensoul wasn't incompetent or stupid (he was in fact an able administrator) but he also was the man who often failed to simply take a decision. Dunkerque is the force de Raid's flagship btw, so Gensoul will always be onboard or in the harbour she's in.

Collinet proved several times to be an excellent sailor, actually saving his ship (the Strasbourg) from heavy fire at Mers-El-Kebir. He also never really blamed the British for Mers-El-Kebir and then became one of the commanders of the French Naval Forces after Torch, which means he was an acceptable candidate for De Gaulle and the Wallies (and again, he was good at his job). But in 1940, he is too "young" (Full Captain then rear-admiral in October 1940 OTL). He will still be given the command of a Division of Battleships (maybe two ships): he at the head of the Richelieu and Strasbourg would be really interesting

Godfroy is too old and not used to command "new ships" (the ones built in the 1930's). But if he rallies the British when he's in Alexandria and Beirut (his ships were in both harbours), then the French Levant will likely join the Free French even if North Africa does not (its commander was initially against the Armistice too).

The best commander for the French Free Navy is most likely Rear-Admiral Lacroix (promoted to Vice-Admiral after Mers-el-Kebir). He was an anglophile (in fact, he personally knew some of the British captains at Mers-el-Kebir) and considered that the British did what they had to do in July 1940. He served within the Force de Raid, was highly competent (an expert when it came to handle large destroyers) and extremely popular within the French Navy (perhaps the most respected Officer amid the sailors). He also tacitly approved (and likely encouraged) the creation of resistance cells within the French Navy between 1940 and 1943. This is your man to lead the French Navy in a battle. He's extremely capable, popular, fluent in English and would have absolutely no problem when it comes to be under Royal Navy's command.
 
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To quote myself... "The Force de Raid retires to Toulon". Now presumidly Darlan could order Srasbourg and Bretagne or one of them out to Mers El Kebir while Dunkerque is being repaired but this would mean splitting up his force and the timing isn't very convenient, the French are back at Toulon in the 15th, the armistice negotiations begin two days later. Post that Gensoul has just been handed the worst French naval defeat since Trafalgar... from the Italians and there is certainly a substantial degree of looking down at the Italians. Who's put in his place instead and how soon? Collinet has done well with the Strasbourg in the battle but would have to be promoted and Godfroy is available since his OTL force is in Constantinople under Castex.

Nogues made the right noises granted prior to the armistice, only to do an about turn when the armistice took place and not much is available on him in the way of English resources. What's our French members thinking? @jeandebueil ?
Off memory the narrative given for Noguès's acceptance of the Armistice is that it wasn't contrary to the honor of France since, while it had been defeated on land, it had only lost continental land and army limits. The navy and the Empire went untouched.
So it is up to your interpretation of whether Noguès considers the TTL armistice or situation contrary to the honor of France. But yes, as jean said, if Noguès joins, he probably becomes the Free French army leader. De Gaulle would probably be limited to the political sphere.
 
Great update!

Question: why are there so many troops in Constantinople? I mean, the Straits are far from any theater of war. Even with an elevated state of alert, one third of the forces mentioned would be enough. Especially when troops are needed elsewhere...
Not that I wouldn't enjoy an extra Army to side with Greece in the Balkan (and maybe the Asia Minor) front, but isn't it a little too favorable?
 
Great update!

Question: why are there so many troops in Constantinople? I mean, the Straits are far from any theater of war. Even with an elevated state of alert, one third of the forces mentioned would be enough. Especially when troops are needed elsewhere...
Not that I wouldn't enjoy an extra Army to side with Greece in the Balkan (and maybe the Asia Minor) front, but isn't it a little too favorable?
They are there because the French were very seriously planning to bomb Baku and attack the Soviet Union as a ways of defeating Germany. As well as creating a Balkan front to to attack Germany from the south. Both ideas in retrospect are... problematic to say the least but they were there and actively pursued at the time. So the French increased their forces in Constantinople to about a corps (the aforementioned 193e DI and two Polish divisions) at the time of the Winter war and have kept them there between inertia and the plans continuing to be pursued till disaster struck back home...
 
Part 60 The cross of Lorraine in the queen of cities.
French North Africa, June 22nd, 1940

General Nogues reaction, to news of the armistice negotiations had been to proclaim he would fight on from North Africa. His proclamation had been met by widespread support elsewhere in the empire, with commanders from Georges Catroux in Idochina and Mittelhauser in Syria to Paul Legentihoppe in Djibouti and Leon Cayla in Madagascar declaring they would follow his lead and Charles De Gaulle in London offering to place himself under his orders. But Nogues had quickly soured to the idea of fighting on. He first suppressed news of De Gaulle's call for resistance in June 18th. Then with the armistice not giving up the fleet and the empire he proclaimed the armistice was "honourable". North Africa would follow the lead of Petain's government.

Constantinople, June 23rd, 1940

People start flocking in the Greek and Armenian churches in numbers unprecedented for any normal Sunday. At the end of the mass they would sign on the books for the call for the queen of cities to join Greece. By the end of the day nearly 90% of the Greek and Armenian adult population had signed for union. Alexandros Zannas and Antonis Benakis were already in Constantinople representing the Greek government to receive the results.

Andkillen, Norway, June 24th, 1940

The allied lines in Mo-i-Rana had first been attacked by a single German division to no effect. Then the single division had become three and soon after four and the Germans had start gaining ground. The allies had still contested the German advance step by step and were fighting on, Churchill had resisted French pressure to withdraw while the three French brigades in the area, as well as the Polish highland brigade were too heavily engaged against the Germans to be pulled out and truth to tell too small given the number engaged in France to be worth pulling out in the first place. But now France had capitulated and general Bethouart, the commander of the French and Polish forces in Norway had to take his own decision whether he was going to fight on or follow Petain's lead. It was not an easy decision to take. The Poles had made it clear they would fight on and so had the commander of the 13e DBLE. If Bethouart laid down his arms it would open a major gap to the allied line probably leading to the destruction of the Norwegian and British forces. Follow the orders from Vichy to surrender and betray the allies his forces with dying side by side since April or fight on. In the end it was not much a a dilemma. Bethouart and the three French brigades in Norway joined Free France.

French Polynesia, June 24th, 1940

New Hebrides became the first French territory to join Free France. Despite some resistance the rest of French Polynesia would follow over the next few weeks.

French coast, June 25th, 1940

Between the destruction of Poland and the surrender of France the free Polish army had grown to 127,000 men and 6 divisions. Of these the 1st and 2nd divisions, formed mostly from soldiers escaping Poland had been stationed n Constantinople while the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th divisions had been formed in France. the 5th and 6th divisions had been still training but the 3rd and 4th divisions had been heavily engaged. 4th division had been forced to escape into Swiss territory and internment there, while the 3rd division had managed to reach the sea were operation Aerial the allied evacuation was in full swing. By June 25th, 220,390 men including 144,171 British, 40,517 Poles, 30,601 French, 4,938 Czechs and 163 Belgians had managed to escape.

Constantinople, June 27th, 1940

Benakis and Zannas had been sent to Constantinople to facilitate the Greco-Armenian referendum in support for union with Greece. With France collapsings they had also been sent into Constantinople with express instructions to make certain by any means necessary that in Constantinople, as Dragoumis had put it the Fench should stay in and the Turks out, with the Greek XX Infantry division from Alexandroupolis and XXI Infantry division from Raidestos mobilized and massed on Catalca ready to march into Constantinople should the need arise. Admiral Durand-Viel, Darlan's predecessor as head of the French navy and admiral Raoul Castex, head of the French forces in Constantinople had sat on fence since the armistice, while they received increasingly frantic orders from Vichy to accept the armistice. The 1st and 2nd Polish divisions had already declared they would fight on, and so had the 2nd Armenian regiment. The other two French regiments, 5e REI and 24e RMIC were long service regulars of the Legion and La Coloniale, who would follow their commanders but would hardly mind the order to go on fighting, if anything many had taken the orders to pull back from Uskudar as a professional insult. So in the end it was down to Castex and Durand-Viel. Castex was sympathetic to fighting on and every order from Darlan to stand down pushed him the other way given the rivalry between the two men. Pressure on Durand-Viel wasn't being received much better for similar reasons. The Benakis-Zannas duo would give him just the last push he needed to go to the allied direction. Durand-Viel had been vice president of the Suez Canal company. Benakis had not been chosen by Dragoumis, just due to his family connections. His family was one of the most prominent in the Greek community of Alexandria with large economic interests in Egypt and the Suez, thus Dragoumis had counted that he should be able to influence Durand-Viel and play on his interest to retain the French share in Suez. In the night of the 27th the dice was finally cast. French forces in Constantinople declared for Free France.

Beirut, July 2nd, 1940

Much like Constantinople French Syria was sitting on the fence after the armistice. Gabriel Puax, the high commissioner for the Levant was sympathizing with free France. General Mittelhauser the army commander had been sympathetic, when Nogues had declared he would fight on he had supported him but like many French soldiers of his generation had been an admirer of Petain thus vaccilated. Within his army there were several thousands Armenian volunteers, though only a single Armenian regiment 1 RIA in 191e DI as well as thousands of Lebanese, Kurds , Alevis and Circassians that sympathized with joining Free France out of fear of what would happen to French Syria if it came under German influence given Germany's close ties to Turkey. Castex once he had taken the decision to follow Free France had taken the situation in his hands and the French squadron in Constantinople had sailed out within 48 hours for Beirut escorting two of the three regiments of the 193e DI, before Vichy got into its mind to replace Pouax and Mittelhauser with its own loyalists. Ten thousand men and the guns of Lorraine had proven very persuasive, particularly when the two men, Pouax in particular were sympathetic in the first place. In July 3rd French Syria joined Free France.

Britain, July 3rd, 1940

British boarding parties went aboard the French ships in British ports capturing them with virtually no resistance. Operation Trebuchet, the attempt to neutralize the Marine Nationale lest it fall to the hands of the axis was on...

Toulon, July 3rd, 1940

Jean Bart, was nearly complete when she had been ordered out of Saint Nazaire. Initially supposed to go to Britain, then Casablanca, then Mers el Kebir, after Gensoul's defeat in the Ligurian sea, with the signing of the armstice she had found herself at Toulon where her fitting out could complete. Along with Dunkerque and Bretagne, she would form a very powerful squadron when Dunkerque was fully repaired. But Toulon was too well protected for the British to touch. No action would be taken there.

Mers El Kebir, July 3rd, 1940

With Dunkerque unavailable, Force De Raid had been reconstituted around Strasbourg and Richelieu, recalled from Scapa Flow much to the British discomfort, and moved to Mers El Kebir under the temporary command of rear admiral Lacroix, as Gensoul remained with Dunkerque at Toulon. When the British had showed up with HMS Rodney, Valiant, Resolution and Ark Royal, Lacroix didn't have many particularly palpable options. He could join Free France, even though a protege of Darlan he was sympathetic to resisting the Germans, personally very Anglophile and Castex and Durand-Viel joining Free France was hardly something that could be taken lightly by any French officer. Or he could fight them. As he start negotiating with the British he ordered his own ships to raise up steam and stop disarming. His crews had reacted to the order with cheers thinking they were rejoining the war, but Lacroix himself had been still undecided debating between the options of moving his squadron to the French West Indies or joining Free France. Radio Beirut announcing the French Syria had just joined Free France came at the right moment to break the indecision. Lacroix, with Richelieu, Strasbourg, Algerie and six large destroyers joined Free France. Over the next few weeks so would also a third of the 45,000 French soldiers in Britain...
 
Butterflies the size of Dumbo the flying elephant in this update!
a) More territories and more significant forces join the Free French (I wonder who will be their leader), thus freeing more British forces to be used in other future theaters of war and giving a severe headache to Mussolini.
b) Greece moves quickly and cleverly and seems to get Constantinople in all but name. The Free French and Polish forces in Constantinople have now Greece as their sole (or most important) provider for ammunition, food and spare parts. They can hardly say no to any Greek demands for increased Greek presence in the Queen of Cities .
c) More French and Polish soldiers evacuated in Operation Aerial.
d) Jean Bart is in Toulon instead of Casamblanca. Because of the much better facilities in Toulon, it will be completed (instead of partially completed). I wonder how will that change the situation in the Med...
Now we expect the reactions from the Nazis, the Italians, the Turks, the Soviets and the Vichy regime. How many British forces exist in Constantinople? I imagine that the Greek actions are not viewed negatively by the British.
 
Lacroix, with Richelieu, Strasbourg, Algerie and six large destroyers joined Free France.
So far the Free French Navy consists of 1 modern BB, 1 BC, 1 old BB, 4 CAs, 1 CL and 9 DDs. A potent fleet on its own. Next stop: Dakar. If the Free French arrives, Dakar and West Africa go the FF way. West Africa is not just the Dakar naval base and additional legitimacy: in OTL the Free French raised 50,000 troops from there after 1943 (source: "Rearming the French"). Without Jean Bart and its escorts there cannot be a battle, much less civil war.

So far, de Gaulle is in a much better position with 3 full divisions answering to him (plus other levantine units), Bethouart's 3 brigades and 15,000 Frenchmen in Britain.

By the way, something interesting I read in "Rearming the French": by June 1944, it was decided that the "division slice" the Americans were willing to equip would be 32,500 men instead of the american organization of 40,000. So, I guess a 32,500 men division-slice army can operate. Especially since the Free French will have more political capital.

Then, there are the levantine ethnic groups that Free France can tap for more recruits. This paper states that according to the 1925 census there are 439k Shias (Druze included), 198k Christians independed of Rome and 307k Christians united with Rome. I think the Kurds must be around 140k. Overall, a population of more than one million. The Troupes Speciales in OTL reached 22k at 1944. What percentage of it could be realistically drafted?

Benakis had not been chosen by Dragoumis, just due to his family connections. His family was one of the most prominent in the Greek community of Alexandria with large economic interests in Egypt and the Suez, thus Dragoumis had counted that he should be able to influence Durand-Viel and play on his interest to retain the French share in Suez. In the night of the 27th the dice was finally cast
Well, seeing "Crazy Antony" one of the most beloved literature figures of my childhood appearing in the timeline is really nice. I expect admiral Demestichas - another literature hero of mine- to shine as well.
 
And a thing that came into my mind, regarding the French expedition from Constantinople to Syria. Why didn't the Italians in Dodecanese try to stop (or at least inflict some casualties) to this expedition? I am sure the Turks would have notified them.
 
Now I wonder if Leclerc will still cross Africa from Libreville to Kufra like an absolute madlad ^^

So far the Free French Navy consists of 1 modern BB, 1 BC, 1 old BB, 4 CAs, 1 CL and 9 DDs. A potent fleet on its own. Next stop: Dakar. If the Free French arrives, Dakar and West Africa go the FF way. West Africa is not just the Dakar naval base and additional legitimacy: in OTL the Free French raised 50,000 troops from there after 1943 (source: "Rearming the French"). Without Jean Bart and its escorts there cannot be a battle, much less civil war.
Dakar is still incredibly significant, it is where the Franco-Belgian gold reserves are.
 
a) More territories and more significant forces join the Free French (I wonder who will be their leader), thus freeing more British forces to be used in other future theaters of war and giving a severe headache to Mussolini.
Also, TTL wouldn't be the campaign against the Vichy Syria, thus with no need to divert allied troops to combat there, they would be available and increased with the Free French ones... Which, IMO, should assure that, baring Turkey siding with the Axis, the Eastern Mediterranean/Aegean, would be kept firmly in Allied hands.
 
I believe the biggest impact remains the absence of Mers el Kebir. The OTL bombardment and losses incurred by the French navy did much to turn a chunk of the French opinion against the British I believe, and seriously impacted the recruitment of Free French forces. A peaceful defection there might go a long way towards easing things up for future defections, including a different outcome at Dakar as alluded above.

Besides, with the spare naval and infantry forces the Free French have here, would it be possible for them to lead an autonomous campaign against Italian Dodecanese from their bases in the Levant, Constantinople and British held Cyprus? Such a campaign, if successful, could go a long way convincing the Greeks to get on board after the fall of France.

Dakar is still incredibly significant, it is where the Franco-Belgian gold reserves are.
The Belgian reserves were moved well inland I believe.
 
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Just that I thought, what happened to the Massilia ITTL?
IOTL, it has transported a number of figures of the French political establishment that might have had a large impact if they had escaped, like Daladier and Mandel, or even Mendès-France. Even a small number of deputies could have given de Gaulle and the Free French the veneer of legitimacy they always struggled to get, especially in relation to FDR's view of them.
 
Also, TTL wouldn't be the campaign against the Vichy Syria, thus with no need to divert allied troops to combat there, they would be available and increased with the Free French ones... Which, IMO, should assure that, baring Turkey siding with the Axis, the Eastern Mediterranean/Aegean, would be kept firmly in Allied hands.
There is a good chance that Turkey will jump in on the axis side. Or at least, jump Greece. Which would be the same thing since it would bring the Greeks in on the Allies side.

If the Germans try a greek campaign ITTL, Turkey will jump in just to recover the territory in anatolia. Actually, they might jump in when the Italians try something. Syria might give them pause though, since with it siding with the allies then it has a second front.
 
Butterflies the size of Dumbo the flying elephant in this update!
a) More territories and more significant forces join the Free French (I wonder who will be their leader), thus freeing more British forces to be used in other future theaters of war and giving a severe headache to Mussolini.
b) Greece moves quickly and cleverly and seems to get Constantinople in all but name. The Free French and Polish forces in Constantinople have now Greece as their sole (or most important) provider for ammunition, food and spare parts. They can hardly say no to any Greek demands for increased Greek presence in the Queen of Cities .
The referendum, rather mass signature gathering, is obviously modelled after the two similar ones in Cyprus in OTL (of which the first took place already in TTL as well). Post that you have Dragoumis at the helm. He was a career diplomat by trade (and intellectual by persuasion) before entering politics but I'd argue this was not him most formulating experience. That would be leading the Macedonian struggle as consul general of Thessaloniki in the early 1900s. Put in other words the Greek prime minister in his youth had been, spy, spymaster, organized of guerrillas and chief propagandist in one and adept in the extreme in waging his secret war. People forget this for the up in the clouds intellectual married to one of the two best Greek actresses of the era at their own peril...
c) More French and Polish soldiers evacuated in Operation Aerial.
The Germans start their offensive om France with slightly weaker forces. This was going to have some effect...
d) Jean Bart is in Toulon instead of Casamblanca. Because of the much better facilities in Toulon, it will be completed (instead of partially completed). I wonder how will that change the situation in the Med...
When Jean Bart escapes TTL it is about as complete as Richelieu was OTL. In the aftermath of the beating the French took in the battle of the Ligurian sea it was logical that Darlan would want it close at hand as a counter to the Italians should the armistice negotiations failed. After all if they did, the fleet at Toulon could always sail away well ahead of the Germans and the Italians.
Now we expect the reactions from the Nazis, the Italians, the Turks, the Soviets and the Vichy regime. How many British forces exist in Constantinople? I imagine that the Greek actions are not viewed negatively by the British.
A single brigade, the 85th infantry. Troops wise this was a mostly French show after the war start.
So far the Free French Navy consists of 1 modern BB, 1 BC, 1 old BB, 4 CAs, 1 CL and 9 DDs. A potent fleet on its own. Next stop: Dakar. If the Free French arrives, Dakar and West Africa go the FF way. West Africa is not just the Dakar naval base and additional legitimacy: in OTL the Free French raised 50,000 troops from there after 1943 (source: "Rearming the French"). Without Jean Bart and its escorts there cannot be a battle, much less civil war.
Boisson might have a few words to say about this. How successful said word might be is a different matter, though one might notice that if the Free French forces in Constantinople and Syria want to intervene in West Africa they need to go the long way there...

So far, de Gaulle is in a much better position with 3 full divisions answering to him (plus other levantine units), Bethouart's 3 brigades and 15,000 Frenchmen in Britain.
De Gaulle as far as units go has at the moment roughly 5 divisions worth of troops. Of course not all soldiers in Syria and Constantinople join Free France, at least some would require repatriation instead but still a very significant fraction of the non local units will follow their officers. To whom is your average Senegalese Tiralleur of La Coloniale loyal, a certain idea of France or his officers and fellow soldiers?

By the way, something interesting I read in "Rearming the French": by June 1944, it was decided that the "division slice" the Americans were willing to equip would be 32,500 men instead of the american organization of 40,000. So, I guess a 32,500 men division-slice army can operate. Especially since the Free French will have more political capital.
Always taking into account a 20% overhead to replace casualties. But that's still way in the future for the French... or the Poles or the Greeks should they join the war for that matter. The Americans won't be equipping en masse minor ally forces to have a say on their organization for some time yet.

Then, there are the levantine ethnic groups that Free France can tap for more recruits. This paper states that according to the 1925 census there are 439k Shias (Druze included), 198k Christians independed of Rome and 307k Christians united with Rome. I think the Kurds must be around 140k. Overall, a population of more than one million. The Troupes Speciales in OTL reached 22k at 1944. What percentage of it could be realistically drafted?
The Druze joined the Syrian rebellion... and Syrian nationalists will be in a very delicate position here between their French colonial masters and the Turks. The Kurds are actually closer to 220,000 or so, they were 6.2% of the population in 1925 OTL and TTL the border areas north of the Baghdad railway had an estimated 54,000 more in 1921.

Well, seeing "Crazy Antony" one of the most beloved literature figures of my childhood appearing in the timeline is really nice. I expect admiral Demestichas - another literature hero of mine- to shine as well.
I really do not understand what you are meaning...


And a thing that came into my mind, regarding the French expedition from Constantinople to Syria. Why didn't the Italians in Dodecanese try to stop (or at least inflict some casualties) to this expedition? I am sure the Turks would have notified them.
Well they could try... Four destroyers and 6 submarines against a battleship, 3 heavy cruisers and four destroyers. Which likely skirt through Greek waters the Greek navy will be very happy if the Italians start attacking in their waters... so will be the Supermarina if someone brings the Greek navy into play without express orders to do so.

Dakar is still incredibly significant, it is where the Franco-Belgian gold reserves are.
Yes you could say 2,500 tons of gold or so if memory serves are a little bit significant...
Also, TTL wouldn't be the campaign against the Vichy Syria, thus with no need to divert allied troops to combat there, they would be available and increased with the Free French ones... Which, IMO, should assure that, baring Turkey siding with the Axis, the Eastern Mediterranean/Aegean, would be kept firmly in Allied hands.
Baring a successful invasion of Greece of course.

I believe the biggest impact remains the absence of Mers el Kebir. The OTL bombardment and losses incurred by the French navy did much to turn a chunk of the French opinion against the British I believe, and seriously impacted the recruitment of Free French forces. A peaceful defection there might go a long way towards easing things up for future defections, including a different outcome at Dakar as alluded above.
It certainly does help Free French recruiting prospects...

There is a good chance that Turkey will jump in on the axis side. Or at least, jump Greece. Which would be the same thing since it would bring the Greeks in on the Allies side.

If the Germans try a greek campaign ITTL, Turkey will jump in just to recover the territory in anatolia. Actually, they might jump in when the Italians try something. Syria might give them pause though, since with it siding with the allies then it has a second front.
With hindsight the Turks should just do nothing. If they stay out, they walk away intact and with all the gains they have made so far. The problem is the Turks do not have hindsight. Without hindsight the Germans appear to have just cleaned the bank at the moment, where they'll get a better chance to reclaim territory lost to the Greeks? Or the French and British? Or for that matter the Soviets?
 
Put in other words the Greek prime minister in his youth had been, spy, spymaster, organized of guerrillas and chief propagandist in one and adept in the extreme in waging his secret war.
This is the most accurate condensed description of Gounaris' youth I could ever think of.

Boisson might have a few words to say about this. How successful said word might be is a different matter, though one might notice that if the Free French forces in Constantinople and Syria want to intervene in West Africa they need to go the long way there...
Yet there is no battleship in Dakar. And without a capital ship, I doubt a powerful cruiser and destroyer squadron would be there. With Lacroix joinging the Free French, there is a good chance for the three light cruisers departing Toulon to join him instead. And there is the additional shock of Syria-Lebanon joining Fighting Charles. I don't think a levantine division is needed: if instead of a british fleet, Force de Raid arrives in front of Dakar then we are talking about a whole different political situation.

@DracoLazarus oops, I totally forgot about the (largest ???) pile of gold in the world.


The Druze joined the Syrian rebellion... and Syrian nationalists will be in a very delicate position here between their French colonial masters and the Turks. The Kurds are actually closer to 220,000 or so, they were 6.2% of the population in 1925 OTL and TTL the border areas north of the Baghdad railway had an estimated 54,000 more in 1921.
Since Syria-Lebanon is currently the biggest manpower pool, I expect the French to try to raise a corps worth of troops from there. I am wondering whether they would opt for mixed formations or ethnic groups forming their own division. E.g. to have a christian division dominated by Maronites, an Alawi division and a sunni (Kurds and perhaps Circassians) cavalry division.

The French can either keep the Bethouart's 3 brigades together and form them into a division or break them up for cadre of the colonial army. Or use the 15,000 French in Britain to form the cadre of an expanding levantine corps (local soldiers and some NCOs, metropolitan French officers and NCOs).

I really do not understand what you are meaning...
We both know that you do. But for the non-greeks here is the story:

The author Penelope Delta was the long-time love interest of Ion Dragoumis, before he started dating the actress Marika Kotopouli. As it happens, Delta was the sister of Antonis Benakis who in TTL has been sent as an envoy to Constantinople to influence the French there. In one of her novels that took place during the Macedonia Struggle, Delta presented the fictionalized adventures of Admiral Demestichas, the current head of the Greek Navy. Demestichas in OTL had been a prominent guerilla leader under the nom de guerre "Captain Nikephoros".
 
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