Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

Part 14 Goodnight Kemal this world shall never change...
Greek controlled Western Anatolia, September 10th, 1921 (old calendar)/ September 23rd, 1921 (new calendar)

Painstaking effort had been taken to coordinate the disparate Kuva-yi Milliye partisans all over the Greek controlled zone. The order was simple, launch a general attack against the Greek occupation army no matter the possible cost. Massed attacks were launched against Greek troop and the local Greek and Armenian populations. After the initial surprise the Greeks start methodically taking back control of the situation, over the last 2 years of fighting the partisans had taken significant casualties while many had joined the Turkish regular forces. Still despite often crippling losses the partisans achieved at least partly their goal, as the over 108,000 Greek troops covering Greek rear areas were tied down by the attacks and the supply lines east cut in several occasions. But any hopes the Greeks would move troops from the Smyrna Army Corps, which was being in general reserve to deal with the attacks would proved fruitless as Paraskeuopoulos quickly issued orders for them to stay put.

Halys/Kizilirmak river, September 12th, 1921 (old calendar)/ September 25th, 1921 (new calendar)

Nearly 71,000 troops under Mustafa Kemal's personal command struck over the Halys. For once the Turks had numerical superiority, Kemal had striped the east and Cilicia of troops to rebuild the Western front one last time. Opposite him he had the four divisions of the Greek B Corps under general Pierrakos Mauromichalis had a bit fewer than 57,000 men with three divisions dug along the Halys and the Crete division held in reserve. Kemal concentrated his main effort against lt general Nikolaos Trikoupis III infantry division, careful reconnaissance before the battle had noticed that unlike the sectors of the other two divisions for reasons that would become the subject of heated debate postwar, Trikoupis had failed to properly fortify his sector. [1] Under the pressure the III division start giving ground.

Ankara, September 18th, 1921 (old calendar)/ October 1st, 1921 (new calendar)

Things had been touch and go for the past six days. Quick intervention by the Crete division had saved the III division from collapse which could have had drastically bad consequences for the Greeks. Mauromichalis had still been forced to pull back from his position on the Halys and in the fighting that followed he had been pushed back several kilometres and losing nearly 5,500 men in exchange for slightly over 3,500. The price had been steep but his corps was still fighting and unlike Kemal the Greeks had reserves. Reserves that now have had time to redeploy. The Greek Smyrna Corps, three infantry and a cavalry division, 46.000 men in total entered the fray. One more division, the II infantry was marching towards the fight from Konya.

Halys/Kizilirmak river, September 26th, 1921 (old calendar)/ October 9th, 1921 (new calendar)

Kemal's troops had been pushed back to the east of the river by the Greek counterattack in eight days of fighting. Their casualties by now were in excess of 9,000 men, the Greeks had also suffered over 8,000 but by now had over 108,000 men on the Halys, while on the Turkish side desertions were becoming endemic again. Behind the Greek lines Kuva-yi Milliye had suffered grievously from coming out on the open to attack the Greeks. It looked as if Kemal had launched his last bolt. It had come close, but not close enough

Constantinople, September 30th, 1921 (old calendar)/ October 13th, 1921 (new calendar)

The Greek Serres division, the first formed by the government on National Defence during the world war, marched into Constantinople while the allies announced that Georgios Kafantaris would become allied high commissioner, presiding over the high commissioners, Britain, France, Italy anf Greece already had in Constantinople ad they considered article 36 of the treaty of Sevres to be in effect due to the continued Turkish resistance.

It was the end result of a diplomatic fight waged by Venizelos at the same time Greek and Turkish troops were bleeding on the battlefields of Anatolia. His argument was simple, it was well past time to activate article 36 of the treaty of Sevres and eject the sultan's government from the queen of cities given continued Turkish resistance. The British had been quick to agree, there were people within the administration, Lloyd George and Harold Nicholson in particular, who were suggesting outright annexation of the European side of Constantinople to Greece, Venizelos was actually more moderate than this. The French had been more reluctant but had no reason to alienate a loyal ally when said ally was winning and they stood to gain. The Italians had obviously been a more problematic prospect, at the same time they were reinforcing their army in Anatolia they were sheltering Turkish partisans during the recent offensive. But Giovanni Giolitti and his foreign minister count Carlo Sforza had not been replaced by a new ministry under Ivanoe Bonomi and the new minister was more open towards rapprochement with Britain. Venizelos had struck a deal agreeing to support the Italian hold in Caria in the new peace conference all expected in exchange for Italian support. Turkish nationalists had inadvertently helped when Damat Ferid pasha had been assassinated by a pair of CUP associated junior officers a week earlier after persistent rumours had circulated that he was about to become grand vizier.

Sivas, October 15th, 1921

Tan, Ali Şükrü Bey's paper and de facto voice of the opposition "Third Group", was up in arms openly questioning Kemal's leadership and where the war was leading following the entry of Greek troops to Constantinople the installation of a Greek high commissioner and the activation of article 36. The number of representatives opposing Kemal's leadership rose sharply, as the Monarchists and the Islamists within the Assembly now found common ground against him. Kemal and his supporters had not taken kindly to it. The same day Ali Şükrü Bey disappeared.

Sivas, October 20th, 1921

Henry Franklin-Bouillon reached Sivas to find the Grand National Assembly in chaos. Two days earlier the dead body of Ali Şükrü Bey had been found with the opposition blaming Kemal's Laz bodyguards for the assassination [2] and of Kemal trying to eliminate all opposition given the questionable circumstances of Enver pasha's death. By nw the situation was verging close to open fighting between rival factions. Franklin-Bouillon helped only exacerbate things as he brought the message of the French government. The carrot was that France was offering her good services over signing an armistice ans on her part was willing to adhere to the March treaty which the assembly had rejected. The stick was that otherwise the French army would resume operations against Turkey, Gouraud was much more entusiastic over French military prospects now that Syria was mostly pacified and most of the Turkish army in Cilicia was gone.

Sivas, October 25th, 1921

Even Mustafa Kemal had been forced to accept that continuing the war, with the Grand National Assembly almost on the verge of civil war and the army melting away from desertions was not practical. Whether it had been the entry of Greek troops in Constantinople of Franklin-Bouillon's not quite ultimatum would remain an open question for discussion but the result was the same, as the Grand National Assembly signed an armistice bringing the fight to an end, with Franklin-Bouillon hastily authorized to sign on behalf of Britain and Greece as well.

The question of Kemal himself remained. He could not quite remain speaker of the assembly and de facto head of the government. He could not just be removed from power either, given the support he still commanded and legitimate fears about his life, after all Turkish politics were turning into a blood sport the past few months. Finally his own lieutenants Rauf Orbay, recently released from Malta by the British is exchange for a number of British prisoners of war, and Kazim Karabekir had devised a compromise to ease him out of power. Kemal would head the Turkish delegation at the peace conference in Paris. Back in Anatolia the negotiations to unite the government of the Grand National Assably with the Ottoman one begun. It was understood by all involved that in effect the Ottoman government would be absorbed by that of the assembly. After all two thirds of the Ottoman parliament has actually joined the assembly...

[1] Yes I'm shamelessly stealing from Trikoupis failures in OTL August 1922. Only here he's still a division commander the only one common both before and after the November elections.
[2] In OTL Topal Osman was used as a scapegoat for Ali Şükrü Bey's assassination in 1922 but there is probably little doubt at who had ordered the assassination. TTL Topal had a much deserved appointment with an 9.2 inch shell at Samsun but Sivas in late 1921 is not exactly short of people who'd follow orders to take out a "traitor" no questions asked.
 
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Wonder how much more territory Greece gets ITTL--also, this will push the Turks into the Axis camp ITTL, with interesting results, methinks (granted, the Axis won't win World War II, but they will do better ITTL)...
 
Wonder how much more territory Greece gets ITTL--also, this will push the Turks into the Axis camp ITTL, with interesting results, methinks (granted, the Axis won't win World War II, but they will do better ITTL)...

How much does it get? Anything it got at Sevres from Turkey is a given. Post that I have obviously planned more than a few options but I'm open to discussion. No secret I think some short of at least a partial population exchange was more likely than not and that I'm leery about making any population exchange too one sided.

WW2... that's 18 years in the future. I wouldn't want to commit to predictions. But the way things look at the moment barring intervening disasters Greece will have a LOT higher nominal GDP and Turkey notably lower. Of course as I've said that's two decades in the future so... :cool:
 

formion

Banned
@Lascaris under which circumstances did the Italians depart from Sokia and Scala Nova/ Ephesus in April-May 1922? Was it de-investment of the area in general or the greek presence in Aydin was the reason?

I am asking since a Meander border between Greece and Italy would be grand and the lower Meander had a very solid greek majority.
 
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Who owns Antalya? The Turks or the Italians? The Turks would want a Mediterranean port, but the they don't have much of a bargaining power right now...
Aside from territory from the Sevres treaty, Greece could get extra territory covering the straits zone (although not Izmit/Nikomedeia, or Iznik/Nikaia). Besides it could get some more territory in Eastern Thrace, but not Constantinople. And the Sultan would be relocated to Bursa probably
 
Greece being in better shape...yeah, that's gonna change things in the Baltic...

As Lascaris said, we are discussing events 20 years in the future - for all we know, Greece might as well end up fascist - but I wouldn't be so dismissive of its potential role in the war. For one thing, continued tensions between Italy and a much more assertive, allied-aligned Greece might have Mussolini decide against jumping into the war on the Axis' side - with potentially massive butterflies, as a Blunted Sickle has convincingly shown.
 
Who owns Antalya? The Turks or the Italians? The Turks would want a Mediterranean port, but the they don't have much of a bargaining power right now...
Aside from territory from the Sevres treaty, Greece could get extra territory covering the straits zone (although not Izmit/Nikomedeia, or Iznik/Nikaia). Besides it could get some more territory in Eastern Thrace, but not Constantinople. And the Sultan would be relocated to Bursa probably
Bursa will be lacking sea access regardless if Greece doesn’t receive the territory around it right away because of the international straits zone if it sticks around, the territory has high chances of ending up in Greece hands or end up as a Danzig scenario.
Eastern Thrace most of it is already in Greece hands by Treaty of Serves excluding Constantinople.
 
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@Lascaris under which circumstances did the Italians depart from Sokia and Scala Nova/ Ephesus in April-May 1922? Was it de-investment of the area in general or the greek presence in Aydin was the reason?

I am asking since a Meander border between Greece and Italy would be grand and the lower Meander had a very solid greek majority.

It looked as if Turkey was going to win and Italy gained more from backing Turkey and leaving SW Anatolia than actually going to war for territory it had not been even given at Sevres. The lower Meander, I presume you refer to Sokia/Soke here which depending in the source you want to use was between 57-67% Greek with the upper figure more likely. That is Italian controlled at the moment. I could see the Italians giving it up, assuming the Greek southern border goes down there and does not stay on the Sevres line as following the Meander in its entirety is a logical border. But the Italians could just as easily stay annoying. After all if they control it what does it matter to them if the natives in their new shiny colony include a few more Greeks or a few more Turks?

Who owns Antalya? The Turks or the Italians? The Turks would want a Mediterranean port, but the they don't have much of a bargaining power right now...
Aside from territory from the Sevres treaty, Greece could get extra territory covering the straits zone (although not Izmit/Nikomedeia, or Iznik/Nikaia). Besides it could get some more territory in Eastern Thrace, but not Constantinople. And the Sultan would be relocated to Bursa probably

Antalya has an Italian garrison at the moment. It's status like the rest of the Italian zone is... blurry. In Thrace the Sevres zone was in the Catalca line, I don't think you can alter it without actually giving the Greeks Constantinople.

As Lascaris said, we are discussing events 20 years in the future - for all we know, Greece might as well end up fascist - but I wouldn't be so dismissive of its potential role in the war. For one thing, continued tensions between Italy and a much more assertive, allied-aligned Greece might have Mussolini decide against jumping into the war on the Axis' side - with potentially massive butterflies, as a Blunted Sickle has convincingly shown.

Greece is reasonably unlikely to go fascist, if anything what's the fascists appeal in a country that massively profited from the war and had most her national aspirations attained?

Bursa will be lacking sea access regardless if Greece doesn’t receive the territory around it right away because of the international straits zone if it sticks around, the territory has high chances of ending up in Greece hands or end up as a Danzig scenario.
Eastern Thrace most of it is already in Greece hands by Treaty of Serves excluding Constantinople.

Britain would certainly insist on free navigation of the straits. So at least in peacetime Bursa would have an outlet to the sea through Mudanya...
 

formion

Banned
The lower Meander, I presume you refer to Sokia/Soke
Indeed. Sokia and Kusadasi/Ephesus/Scala Nova. I had read somewhere (I cannot recall when unfortunately) that Stergiadis and other notables were worried that the Italians would develop Ephesus in a port competitive to Smyrna.


But the Italians could just as easily stay annoying. After all if they control it what does it matter to them if the natives in their new shiny colony include a few more Greeks or a few more Turks?
Absolutely. From an italian pov it doesn't matter if they have turkish or greek subjects.

I could see though Venizelos trying to obtain the region for both security and economic reasonns. After all, he tried to do so in the Tittoni-Venizelos Agreement. With the agreement never ratified, Venizelos knows it is a dead letter. Yet I cannot but wonder if in any greco-italian negotiations, a proper Meander border is the low-hanging fruit. The Dodecanese won't be given to Greece, that's for sure. Northern Epirus is more complicated and the Ambassadors' Conference is coming soon. I can see Venizelos supporting an italian Valona for Argyrokastro and the northern bank of the Meander. I have to admit though that I have no particular knowledge on the working of the November 1921 Conference.
 
. I can see Venizelos supporting an italian Valona for Argyrokastro and the northern bank of the Meander. I have to admit though that I have no particular knowledge on the working of the November 1921 Conference.

I will only say that while the British, Japanese and Italian stance is not likely to be any different from OTL the French is obviously affected TTL...
 

formion

Banned
I will only say that while the British, Japanese and Italian stance is not likely to be any different from OTL the French is obviously affected TTL...
Do you have any sources regarding the November 1921 conference? My knowledge of it is superficial at best.
 
Well, aside of what would be the definitive borders, but given TTL Greece 'd be bigger and surely with a stronger economy I 'd guess that in TTL her navy should be bigger and/or at least capable, if necessary, to keep in check to the Italian Navy...
Also, if Greece continued to be a British allied in the hypothetical TTL postwar geopolitical situation, then given that, I would guess that its continuation could be of mutual interest.
Cause with other allied navy in the Mediterranean then the Royal Navy wouldn't will have to depend in exclusivity, as in OTL, of the French Navy. As in OTL to keep in check a potential Italian menace. Especially in a situation where the RN forces would be needed to be deployed elsewhere...
 
I'm not convinced WW2 happens at this point anyway close to OTL - we end up with a larger, victorious Greece / different Straits and an Italy that has "done well" from mucking about in Turkey (which assumedly sort of helps stabilise things domestically?). The latter of which could make for a very different 1920s. You don't need Mussolini to take power to end up with Hitler, but it sure helps.

Then Britain probably has a better time of it as well, if it is the patron of the winning Greece. I can't remember the detail now but I recall reading various things years ago which said the fallout from the Turkish victory/Chanak Crisis really harmed British prestige in Australia and NZ especially and if Wikipedia is to be believed, caused Lloyd-George's government to fall in 1922.
 
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Well, aside of what would be the definitive borders, but given TTL Greece 'd be bigger and surely with a stronger economy I 'd guess that in TTL her navy should be bigger and/or at least capable, if necessary, to keep in check to the Italian Navy...
Also, if Greece continued to be a British allied in the hypothetical TTL postwar geopolitical situation, then given that, I would guess that its continuation could be of mutual interest.
Cause with other allied navy in the Mediterranean then the Royal Navy wouldn't will have to depend in exclusivity, as in OTL, of the French Navy. As in OTL to keep in check a potential Italian menace. Especially in a situation where the RN forces would be needed to be deployed elsewhere...

The Greek navy is likely to be considerably stronger it has already obtained a couple light cruisers and half a dozen destroyers from Britain. That said keeping in check the Italian navy on its own is an entirely different kettle of fish. The plans of the Kelly naval mission in 1919-21 IF applied in their entirety would had led to a Greek navy with 2 pre-dreadnoughts, 6 cruisers (Averof, the near useless Helli and 4 C class), 2 destroyer flotillas (the 4 Aetos class and a dozen S class), 12 submarines (H class) and 18 torpedo boats ranging from 125t to 380t in displacement. That was going to be a significant force (and a well trained aggressive one) but is no match for the Italian navy on its own.

I'm not convinced WW2 happens at this point anyway close to OTL - we end up with a larger, victorious Greece / different Straits and an Italy that has "done well" from mucking about in Turkey (which assumedly sort of helps stabilise things domestically?). The latter of which could make for a very different 1920s. You don't need Mussolini to take power to end up with Hitler, but it sure helps.

Then Britain probably has a better time of it as well, if it is the patron of the winning Greece. I can't remember the detail now but I recall reading various things years ago which said the fallout from the Turkish victory/Chanak Cris really harmed British prestige in Australia and NZ especially and if Wikipedia is to be believed, caused Lloyd-George's government to fall in 1922.

IMO the prime driving force for WW2 was Germany in general and the Nazi's rise to power in particular and I just don't see that particular train wreck being stopped by the events here. Italy is trickier but Mussolini had momentum and to a large extend his rise to power was due to entirely domestic reasons, starting with the "biennio rosso" that preceded it.

Britain is an interesting question. For certain Chanak was the very convenient excuse for the Conservatives to break with Lloyd George. But it was most likely just that an excuse, with Baldwin, with his comments of Lloyd George as a "dynamic force" that threatened the Conservatives probably looking for an excuse to break the coalition and the majority of the Conservatives likely to follow him as shown in the Carlton club meeting. The question is of course whether without Chanak the break of the Coalition is so clean or you see a breakup within the Conservatives between the anti-coalition group and the smaller faction, likely under Austen Chamberlain, that wants to stay loyal to their National Liberal coalition partners. In theory it could happen but I'm hardly certain how likely it would be. @David T ?
 

formion

Banned
Italy that has "done well" from mucking about in Turkey (which assumedly sort of helps stabilise things domestically?).
From what I understand, the Anatolian adventures of Italy didn't matter much to the italian public, at least compared to serious internal issues or Fiume/Dalmatia. I think the italian aspirations in south Anatolia, mattered to the Italians as much as Cilicia to the French. The French lost Cilicia yet it didn't affect the internal political scene much. If I read the situation well, at least in foreign policy, Anatolia was the very least important front.

So, I think Mussolini still rises to power.
 
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